2023 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

The ECMWF Eastern Pacific outlook looks low considering the prospects of having El Niño. This forecast is from April thru September.

ACE: 1.0 ±0.2
TS: 13.9 ±3.1 (13.1)
HU: 8.2 ±2.1 (7.1)

[JetFuel_SE]

The ECMWF Eastern Pacific outlook looks low considering the prospects of having El Niño. This forecast is from April thru September.

ACE: 1.0 ±0.2
TS: 13.9 ±3.1 (13.1)
HU: 8.2 ±2.1 (7.1)

https://i.imgur.com/Qu6ExPb.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/IwWGEGD.jpg

What does the Euro say about the PDO? Could maybe explain some things.

[cycloneye]

Time goes fast and now there are only 45 days left for the season to start.

[Yellow Evan]

The ECMWF Eastern Pacific outlook looks low considering the prospects of having El Niño. This forecast is from April thru September.

ACE: 1.0 ±0.2
TS: 13.9 ±3.1 (13.1)
HU: 8.2 ±2.1 (7.1)

https://i.imgur.com/Qu6ExPb.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/IwWGEGD.jpg

What does the Euro say about the PDO? Could maybe explain some things.

All climate models seem biased towards -PDO so not that useful.

[Astromanía]

Last year was active even thou we have a la niña and -PDO wonder what we may see this year, if Pacific stay busy spawning storms with the upcoming niño and the storms stay again near the coast then big problems for Mexico, I don't expect big ACE numbers but strong impactful storms.

[cycloneye]

Last year was active even thou we have a la niña and -PDO wonder what we may see this year, if Pacific stay busy spawning storms with the upcoming niño and the storms stay again near the coast then big problems for Mexico, I don't expect big ACE numbers but strong impactful storms.

I expect the opposite. More storms will track in open waters and not much landfalls in Mexico. Is only my take.

[cycloneye]

Derek's small take.

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1645810787229769730

[Yellow Evan]

I’ll post more later but GFS is showing westerlies between 10N and 20N east of 120W that will potentially reverse the damage of the strong trades last few weeks.

[Chris90]

What do the members think about the numbers of storms for this EPAC 2023 season?

I see a very active season with 20/11/5.

I'm feeling bullish with the increasing signals towards El Niño and possibly a moderate to strong one at that. I'm going 22/14/7 with an ACE of 185. A slightly lesser version of 2014. That hinges on the PDO flipping in response to a developing Niño though and doing so in time to take advantage of most of the season.

Just for fun I'll also guess that the first major hurricane BT point will be on June 2nd, and that's for best track, so it would be UTC.

[Kingarabian]

I think the ceiling here would be 2009 numbers. Nothing to slouch at but the PMM has gotten less impressive and the PDO will wait to flip positive.

EPS has strong easterlies over the EPAC MDR by mid May. We'll see what happens.

https://i.imgur.com/KKLlQxF.gif

[DorkyMcDorkface]

I'd say 20+ NS is a good bet at the moment now that we have a truly favorable ENSO state for the EPAC for the first time in a while. Only caveat could come by the way of the -PDO and whether or not it persists into the season. I foresee an above average season regardless, but if there ends up being a flip to positive then my confidence in a well-above average season (possibly bordering/exceeding the hyperactive threshold?) would be boosted immensely.

[Category5Kaiju]

If we do see a very active EPAC season this year, I'm actually very curious to see how the storms will track and how Hawaii will fare; in recent years, it seems like Hawaii has had many very close calls with strong storms (Olivia 2018, Douglas 2020, and, most infamously, Lane 2018).

[cycloneye]

Looking at how are things going, I think the -PDO will be very important in terms of how active the season is, if it not flips to positive in the next few months.

[Yellow Evan]

The cold in the tropical off-equatorial waters we have right now isn’t unheard of historically in +ENSO but they usually warm up as the Walker Cell is suppressed. For example,













How much is a valid question but I’m a little hesitant to view it as more than a small negative. Most of the high octane seasons had a much colder Atlantic and a defined +PDO/+PMM signature with some sort of equatorial years (see composite). We really only have the last bit. Excluding years with a notably favorable PDO/AMO configuration, other 1st year +ENSO years include:
1972
1976
1997
2002
2009

Most of these were garden variety above average. 2009 is the least impressive of the batch and still ended up with 5 majors and about 120 ACE. A possible high end solution is something like 1983 (ACE likely around 20% higher and with 3 more Category 5’s than official number suggest) given the similar far EPAC warmth but given the shallow waters in that region, SSTs there can flip on a dime so I’d rather not get too gungho on that being a huge factor.

I would probably predict 19/9/5 ACE 140 if forced to do numbers.

[Yellow Evan]

If we do see a very active EPAC season this year, I'm actually very curious to see how the storms will track and how Hawaii will fare; in recent years, it seems like Hawaii has had many very close calls with strong storms (Olivia 2018, Douglas 2020, and, most infamously, Lane 2018).

El Niño’s shift the formation zone southward so a little harder for Hawaii to get hit unless there’s troughing to recurve stuff and the -NPMM should make the thermodynamics east of the islands more marginal. Furthermore, if the El Niño is east based, which wouldn’t focus as much activity in the CPAC.

[cycloneye]

Time goes by fast and we are now less than a month away from the oficial start of the season.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

The ECMWF Eastern Pacific outlook looks low considering the prospects of having El Niño. This forecast is from April thru September.

ACE: 1.0 ±0.2
TS: 13.9 ±3.1 (13.1)
HU: 8.2 ±2.1 (7.1)

https://i.imgur.com/Qu6ExPb.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/IwWGEGD.jpg

TBF that excludes October and November and thus doesn't account for additional ACE tacked on during that timeframe. We've seen high activity in the final two months of the season during moderate-Strong El Niños, although granted ACE per storm is generally lower due to the trough recurving storms forming close to the coast into Mexico and what not, so you're really not gonna get those long-tracked treks into the CPAC that eat up ACE like crazy.

[cycloneye]

The ECMWF Eastern Pacific outlook looks low considering the prospects of having El Niño. This forecast is from April thru September.

ACE: 1.0 ±0.2
TS: 13.9 ±3.1 (13.1)
HU: 8.2 ±2.1 (7.1)

https://i.imgur.com/Qu6ExPb.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/IwWGEGD.jpg

TBF that excludes October and November and thus doesn't account for additional ACE tacked on during that timeframe. We've seen high activity in the final two months of the season during moderate-Strong El Niños, although granted ACE per storm is generally lower due to the trough recurving storms forming close to the coast into Mexico and what not, so you're really not gonna get those long-tracked treks into the CPAC that eat up ACE like crazy.

You dont see as many out to sea storms and more Mexico/CentroAmerica landfalls?

[DorkyMcDorkface]

The ECMWF Eastern Pacific outlook looks low considering the prospects of having El Niño. This forecast is from April thru September.

ACE: 1.0 ±0.2
TS: 13.9 ±3.1 (13.1)
HU: 8.2 ±2.1 (7.1)

https://i.imgur.com/Qu6ExPb.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/IwWGEGD.jpg

TBF that excludes October and November and thus doesn't account for additional ACE tacked on during that timeframe. We've seen high activity in the final two months of the season during moderate-Strong El Niños, although granted ACE per storm is generally lower due to the trough recurving storms forming close to the coast into Mexico and what not, so you're really not gonna get those long-tracked treks into the CPAC that eat up ACE like crazy.

You dont see as many out to sea storms and more Mexico/CentroAmerica landfalls?

Yes, during the latter half of the season that is generally the case. EPAC climo favors the long trackers in July/August/September. May and into June is CAG season of course, so you won't see any of them then either.

[cycloneye]

Interesting complex of showers and thunderstorms south of Costa Rica. Nonburger right?