ATL: BRET - Models

[aspen]

All four of the hurricane models — HWRF, HMON, HAFS-A and B — being 92L to major hurricane intensity in 4-5 days. The HAFS-B goes extra nuts and makes it a 130kt/940mb Cat 4 by Friday morning.

[ScottNAtlanta]

That's wild that all four are seeing the same thing. I wonder what they are seeing that the global models don't?

[cycloneye]

More west than north.

 https://twitter.com/CraigSetzer/status/1670403707417100291

[aspen]

I like the 06z HAFS-A run. Track is right in the middle of most models — not too far south but not taking such a sharp turn to the north — and it peaks around 969-970mb, which seems to be a reasonable upper-end intensity. Definitely not as crazy as 950s or 940s like the HWRF or HAFS-B.

[cycloneye]

I like the 06z HAFS-A run. Track is right in the middle of most models — not too far south but not taking such a sharp turn to the north — and it peaks around 969-970mb, which seems to be a reasonable upper-end intensity. Definitely not as crazy as 950s or 940s like the HWRF or HAFS-B.

Have a graphic?

[NDG]

I like the 06z HAFS-A run. Track is right in the middle of most models — not too far south but not taking such a sharp turn to the north — and it peaks around 969-970mb, which seems to be a reasonable upper-end intensity. Definitely not as crazy as 950s or 940s like the HWRF or HAFS-B.

Have a graphic?

Tropical Tidbits now has the model.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

[Hurricane2022]

this HAFS simulation is really nice to see, because we practically have an very beauty and almost-perfect cyclone spinning here.
But it doesn't match reality since this forecast basically has an little TS Cindy following a C4 Hurricane Bret near Antilles, that actually likely would have destroyed this little raindrop due to its "perfect" outflow.

[BobHarlem]

Just in case you arent aware HAFS-A is replacing the HWRF and probably the relative "better" of the two (better is very situation dependent like most models), HAFS-B is replacing the HMON. However this year we'll have all 4. None of the HWRF/HMON/HAFS (A&B) are too great with invests in general (they become more useful once a storm forms), but it's still interesting to see.

[Gums]

Salute!

I am wondering why many models have the new storm re-curving as I thot it would due to the developing El Nino versus models having it continuing across the Carrib as many early storms do.

Here on GoM coast, last thing we need this early summer is a strong storm. We have had plenty of bad wx already.

Gums wonders...

[BobHarlem]

12z Euro is coming in much weaker and more left into the Caribbean. GFS is still recurving around 53W. (Also spins up yet another W. Carib disturbance later this week)

12z Euro:



Canadian doesn't develop it at all again.

[JetFuel_SE]

12z Euro is coming in much weaker and more left into the Caribbean. GFS is still recurving around 53W. (Also spins up yet another W. Carib disturbance later this week)

12z Euro:
https://i.imgur.com/Lw2pNhN.png
https://i.imgur.com/wXz1kcM.png

Canadian doesn't develop it at all again.

Both the Euro and CMC suck with developing TCs, especially the CMC.
I'm not buying any of it lmao.

[cycloneye]

GFS is alone as the consensus goes to Eastern Caribbean islands.

[Nimbus]

Salute!

I am wondering why many models have the new storm re-curving as I thot it would due to the developing El Nino versus models having it continuing across the Carrib as many early storms do.

Here on GoM coast, last thing we need this early summer is a strong storm. We have had plenty of bad wx already.

Gums wonders...

The models that have this weaker and more west probably had the system drying out a little before the islands.
If its a depression tracking into the Caribbean shear may keep it so weak it tracks into Central America.
There are two areas to watch both under the upper level high.
The first system may moisten the environment for the second further east which will track at a lower latitude.

[Hammy]

12z Euro is coming in much weaker and more left into the Caribbean. GFS is still recurving around 53W. (Also spins up yet another W. Carib disturbance later this week)

12z Euro:
https://i.imgur.com/Lw2pNhN.png
https://i.imgur.com/wXz1kcM.png

Canadian doesn't develop it at all again.

Both the Euro and CMC suck with developing TCs, especially the CMC.
I'm not buying any of it lmao.

GFS is the worst model when it comes to overdeveloping, particlarly in the WCarib (it's been doing this every June for decades), and has already shown multiple phantom hurricanes this season. A few days ago it already had a decent strength tropical storm by now.

CMC has had the best track record with development for the last few years.

[aspen]

18z GFS has a slower and more realistic genesis this time, but still manages to turn 92L into a Cat 3 by Friday as it starts to take the escape route just east of the Lesser Antilles.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1670551676221095939

[aspen]

The upper-level flow around 92L ranges from mediocre to excellent to mediocre again through the next few days on the 18z GFS. However, if 92L gets caught in the break in the ridge as the GFS shows, then it could get a very strong poleward outflow channel, aiding in intensification as it passes over 28-29C SSTs just east of the Lesser Antilles. That could be its best shot of becoming an unprecedented MDR June major (still not very likely though).

[aspen]

Significant spread on the hurricane models this run. 06z HWRF hits Dominica with a Cat 3, while the 06z HMON is far weaker and shears 92L apart around 16-18N.

[JetFuel_SE]

SHIPS looking concerning.