ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

The winner here is El Niño.

[al78]

My guess is that this was the last gasp of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season.

[Sciencerocks]

Unless we have a subtropical system in late nov or dec I'd say probably so.

[wxman57]

I thought the NHC's discussion was a bit odd. In meteorology, the forecast is supposed to represent the most likely outcome. Tropical waves can produce 40-50 kt winds in squalls, but that doesn't make them tropical storms. Why not just predict it not to develop at all but mention that squalls could produce 35kt winds? That's what we're doing. I understand that there are tropical storm watches out, but the NHC is not forecasting it to become a TS until it's well north of all the islands. They could remain out if the forecast was for it not to develop into a TS, just in case. Just because a previous forecast did not materialize (no circulation, no development) doesn't mean you have to continue to make a bad forecast because of continuity. Just say, "never mind, it's not developing" and stop advisories. I'll make that change when I'm in charge of the NHC.

The chance for the system to become a tropical cyclone continues to
decrease and in fact now appears unlikely due to a combination of
the system's broad structure, the terrain of the Greater Antilles,
strong southwesterly shear, and mid-level dry air. However, with
the strongest surface winds near or just below 35 kt, there is
still some chance that the system could produce
tropical-storm-force winds over areas within the tropical storm
watch, especially within heavy rainfall. The NHC forecast still
shows the possibility, albeit small, for the system to become a
tropical storm in 24-36 hours mainly based on continuity.

[wxman57]

With an 80% chance it won't develop, the NHC should be stopping advisories shortly. Can't forecast it to develop with an 80% chance it won't.

[cycloneye]

Is over.

This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Sat Nov 18 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. North-Central Caribbean Sea and Southwestern Atlantic:
A broad trough of low pressure located near the southeastern
Bahamas, former Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two, is producing
a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although
development of this system is no longer anticipated, areas of heavy
rain are expected to continue through Sunday across portions of
Jamaica, southeastern Cuba, Hispaniola, the southeastern Bahamas,
and the Turks and Caicos Islands. These rains are likely to
produce flash flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low ...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

Forecaster Roberts

[cycloneye]

It has rained a lot in the Dominican Republic. People trapped in cars.



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