Tropical Wave in Eastern Atlantic (Is Invest 98L)

[mantis83]

Gfs, cmc, and euro all have whatever forms turning well east of the states, as the Bermuda high weakens and shifts east!

[Weathertracker96]

Gfs, cmc, and euro all have whatever forms turning well east of the states, as the Bermuda high weakens and shifts east!

It seems the GFS shifted slight W from this morning. Until we can get a center and more data, this is something everyone needs to watch. Way too early to know for sure what will happen.

[chaser1]

I'll say this much. GFS, CMC, and EURO (from 0Z last night) 500 mb pattern at 240 hr's are all fairly in sync. That still doesn't mean anything concrete but it does suggest that at this moment the global models see less mid level ambiguity at that long term view. Having said that, remember the GFS 10 day forecast Golden Rule. Put up a bulletin board and stick a pin where the 240 hr. forecasts a storm and be confident that it will be incorrect

[TomballEd]

Unless this comes into the Caribbean unorganized and stays S of the G. Antilles until past 80*W, there is no way this doesn't recurve before North America.


I don't call something that landfalls anywhere in the Caribbean a fish, I see that on Twitter and other forum.

[OuterBanker]

Gfs, cmc, and euro all have whatever forms turning well east of the states, as the Bermuda high weakens and shifts east!

Really, Euro 00z shifted well west.

GFS moved well over a hundred miles west from 06z to 12 z (still off shore though).

Euro downright scary.

https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/182 ... 97/photo/2

[Category5Kaiju]

One thing I’m going to say is that unlike many of the big OTS storms that have happened in recent years (Teddy, Lorenzo, Sam, Lee, etc.), the one major thing that makes this storm different is that many models are forecasting it to touch or even go south of the islands (Puerto Rico, US Virgin Islands, etc) in its early stages. None of those other storms really had this kind of model consensus in the beginning.

[aspen]

One thing I’m going to say is that unlike many of the big OTS storms that have happened in recent years (Teddy, Lorenzo, Sam, Lee, etc.), the one major thing that makes this storm different is that many models are forecasting it to touch or even go south of the islands (Puerto Rico, US Virgin Islands, etc) in its early stages. None of those other storms really had this kind of model consensus in the beginning.

I believe earlier runs for Teddy and Sam were showing a MH going into the Lesser Antilles (usually on the GFS), before solutions eventually converged on an OTS track. IIRC, those early runs for Teddy caused a lot of buzz and led to its pre-invest thread becoming one of the biggest pre-invest disturbance threads on the entire forum.

Even at this stage, it’s very possible future-Ernesto manages to avoid the Lesser Antilles and recurves.

[Stratton23]

I would definitely not say this is a guaranteed recurve based on the Euro and EPS runs from last night, Still very uncertain, even the GEFS is still split on that idea

[cycloneye]

The development may start from somewhere here.

[chaser1]

Unless this comes into the Caribbean unorganized and stays S of the G. Antilles until past 80*W, there is no way this doesn't recurve before North America.

I'm sure you mean "no way" assuming the 10 day mid level forecast pattern verifies, right?

[aspen]

Something worth noting is how different the timing is on the 12z GFS and CMC runs. The wave reaches 60W in just 120 hours on the GFS, but it takes an additional 3 days for it to get that far west on the CMC. This discrepancy can be traced back to short-term disagreements on exactly where the max vort of the wave is located. In 72 hours, the GFS has a weaker vort at 40W, while the CMC has a stronger vort at 35W.

We’re going to have to watch the exact position of the wave closely over the next few days, because if this model suite is to be believed, that 5 degree difference in starting position could result in drastically different timings of impacts once we get a TC.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Debby, centered inland near the border of North Carolina
and South Carolina.

Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles:
A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic is
producing widespread disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Any
development of the wave should be slow to occur during the next few
days while it moves westward across the central tropical Atlantic.
Conditions are expected to become more conducive for development
early next week, and a tropical depression could form while it
approaches the Lesser Antilles. The system is then forecast to move
generally west-northwestward and could approach the Greater Antilles
by the middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

[chaser1]

One thing I’m going to say is that unlike many of the big OTS storms that have happened in recent years (Teddy, Lorenzo, Sam, Lee, etc.), the one major thing that makes this storm different is that many models are forecasting it to touch or even go south of the islands (Puerto Rico, US Virgin Islands, etc) in its early stages. None of those other storms really had this kind of model consensus in the beginning.

I believe earlier runs for Teddy and Sam were showing a MH going into the Lesser Antilles (usually on the GFS), before solutions eventually converged on an OTS track. IIRC, those early runs for Teddy caused a lot of buzz and led to its pre-invest thread becoming one of the biggest pre-invest disturbance threads on the entire forum.

Even at this stage, it’s very possible future-Ernesto manages to avoid the Lesser Antilles and recurves.

SO many possibilities. Katrina just for one. I vividly remember while living in S. Florida at the time, Katrina rapidly developing into a hurricane just hours off N. Miami as it moved to the west. (The remainder of her track & impact to Louisiana was historic of course). Debby might well have recurved hundreds of miles to the east had it not trolled every piece of land it could find.

[TomballEd]

Unless this comes into the Caribbean unorganized and stays S of the G. Antilles until past 80*W, there is no way this doesn't recurve before North America.

I'm sure you mean "no way" assuming the 10 day mid level forecast pattern verifies, right?

The no way is based on 7 to 15 day 500 mb height ensembles of the Big 3. If the trough lifts out faster than modeled and there is more ridging, then the Gulf would be more open even with a TC forming before the islands.

[chaser1]

Unless this comes into the Caribbean unorganized and stays S of the G. Antilles until past 80*W, there is no way this doesn't recurve before North America.

I'm sure you mean "no way" assuming the 10 day mid level forecast pattern verifies, right?

The no way is based on 7 to 15 day 500 mb height ensembles of the Big 3. If the trough lifts out faster than modeled and there is more ridging, then the Gulf would be more open even with a TC forming before the islands.

Agreed; Makes sense.

[cycloneye]

Whole 12z European run. Lowest pressure at 967 mbs.

[IsabelaWeather]

Whole 12z European run. Lowest pressure at 967 mbs.

https://i.imgur.com/PDsyJOL.gif

Luis,

I have a really bad "feel" for this one. I think the ceiling for intensity is quite high, I also don't see this missing the island entirely. I think direct impacts (whatever they may be) are likely.

Edit: Direct impacts does not necessarily mean landfall.

[lilbump3000]

[LarryWx]

The 12Z EPS mean is E of the 0Z though still with a few members in the Gulf and a few others at SE FL. Most of the rest recurve offshore the E US though a notable number still either hit or barely miss the NE US. The NE US may very well be the portion of the CONUS, if any, to watch the most for potential impact from this. Let’s see what the next couple of days of ensemble runs show as it is still too early to have a good feel for this, especially with no LLC yet.

[OuterBanker]

12z CMC does break the 20/60 rule (storms north of 20 n by 60 w almost always a fish.

It is the only model showing that though. Most are over or just north of PR.

THE OBX also suffers from the PR connection.