ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[grapealcoholic]

-90s firing

[drezee]

 https://x.com/andretrotter/status/1842506189684322383

[caneman]

 https://x.com/andretrotter/status/1842506189684322383

Who is the person that wrote that?. I'm not familiar with them.

[HurricaneBelle]

Gee I wonder which model run the Tampa Bay NWS is talking about in their overnight forecast discussion:

HOWEVER, I WANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT NO ONE
SHOULD BE FOCUSED ON ONE DETERMINISTIC RUN OF ANY MODEL AS WE
HAVE SEEN VERY HIGH VARIABLE ON TIMING, STRENGTH, AND IF A
TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL EVEN DEVELOP.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Never underestimate jet interactions.

I hear ya but gfs has been flip flopping last 2-3 days form a hurricane to nothing I would certainly not worry to much what it’s currently showing .

How much do you wanna bet that the first or second set of intensity models send a category four hurricane into Tampa.

First models are Cat 2, right into Tampa (you have to disregard the mean track, as it is pulled south by members that fail to develop the system at all)

[drezee]

 https://x.com/andretrotter/status/1842511706515181599

[Nimbus]

I hear ya but gfs has been flip flopping last 2-3 days form a hurricane to nothing I would certainly not worry to much what it’s currently showing .

How much do you wanna bet that the first or second set of intensity models send a category four hurricane into Tampa.

First models are Cat 2, right into Tampa (you have to disregard the mean track, as it is pulled south by members that fail to develop the system at all)

The front is not as strong or does not dig as far into the gulf with the Saturday GFS hurricane model run.
ECM brings the storm in weaker and further south.
NHC wants to fly recon to sample the environment which might improve the forecast for frontal boundary alignment?

[xironman]

I think they will find a true TS this morning not an STS, winds are strong near the center. Just needs to tighten up a bit, the towers blowing up during DMAX should help

[Sciencerocks]

[ChrisH-UK]

92L is looking to be developing nicely which isn't good.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

92L's already looking like it wants to develop.



Spin has increased in the BoC too.

[beachnut]

Good morning S2K:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
346 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

For today we will see some drier air filter through the middle part
of the state with PW dropping to around 1.5. This will result in
little to no showers activity along West Central Florida. However
this dry air does not reach the Nature Coast or Southwest Florida
where we can still expect to see scattered showers and storms mainly
in the late afternoon and evening hours. Moisture content will
increase across the whole state on Sunday which will produce cloudy
skies and scattered showers for the afternoon and evening hours.

This axis of moisture that will drift over the area on Sunday will
remain for much of our work week. Models are coming into better
agreement on a potential tropical system forming on this boundary
during the work week. However, I want to emphasize that no one
should be focused on one deterministic run of any model as we
have seen very high variable on timing, strength, and if a
tropical system will even develop. For right now what we are
confident on is a prolonged heavy rainfall event that will last
from our Sunday through early on Thursday with widespread rainfall
amounts over 5 inches.

Most long range models show drier air starting to filter in by late
Thursday into Friday bringing an end to the cloudy and rainy
pattern.

[drezee]

 https://x.com/andretrotter/status/1842525459017306618

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

Gulf of Mexico (AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico are gradually
becoming better organized. Development of this system is expected,
and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form later today or
on Sunday while it moves slowly eastward over the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico. By early next week, the system is forecast to move
faster eastward or northeastward across the central and eastern Gulf
of Mexico where additional strengthening is likely. Interests on
the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida
Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of
this system. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains could
occur over portions of Mexico during the next day or two, and over
much of Florida late this weekend through the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[gatorcane]

If this storm becomes a hurricane or possibly a major hurricane hitting the FL peninsula on this type of east "wrong way Lenny" track, has that ever happened before?

[aspen]

The good thing about future Milton is that its track evolution seems pretty straightforward: a large ridge developing over the eastern US throughout the next week (clear skies for the comet up here!) will quickly shove 92L west through Florida and out to sea. No complicated interactions with cutoff lows or competing high pressure systems or anything annoying like that. Not only will it make this easier to forecast (at least track-wise), it should minimize impacts and perhaps significantly limit intensity. Some models show this system struggling with shear, and it doesn’t seem to be the kind that allows for good ventilation.

[jlauderdal]

If this storm becomes a hurricane or possibly a major hurricane hitting the FL peninsula on this type of east "wrong way Lenny" track, has that ever happened before?

2.87 in the bucket since midnight on top of 2.29 yesterday. predecessor rain event.

[psyclone]

I want my slop storm back followed by a cold front. Hopefully the shear demons work their magic

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I want my slop storm back followed by a cold front. Hopefully the shear demons work their magic

Yeah... clear skies, a slight northerly breeze, lower humidity and temps in the 70s. That would be magical right now.

[otowntiger]

I want my slop storm back followed by a cold front. Hopefully the shear demons work their magic

Maybe we should call it ‘shear Angels’ at this point.