SIO: HORACIO - Post-Tropical

[sasha_B]

Horacio has now intensified by 50 kt in 24 hours, according to the JTWC's operational Best Track. A very impressive performance so far, and it may still have a little while to keep going - their new forecast peak is 115 kt by 18z today.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Cyclone Horacio


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 140 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 195 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 969 hPa.

Position on February 23 at 10 a.m. local time: 19.0 South / 66.6 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 1150 km to the East sector

Distance from Mayotte: 2390 km to the East-Southeast sector

Movement: SOUTHWEST, at 17 km/h.

System information:

- Tropical cyclone HORACIO is moving across the center of the basin. It is currently located about 300 km east of Rodrigues.

- The system is expected to continue moving southwest before curving its trajectory southward on Tuesday.

- Continuing its intensification phase, it could reach the stage of an intense tropical cyclone late Monday before weakening in the following days.

- HORACIO, with a fairly compact structure, should pass a little over 200km east of Rodrigues at the end of the day on Monday before moving away.

[cycloneye]

It has gone boom in the past 12 hours.

[cycloneye]

Up to Intense.

INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE HORACIO


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 185 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 260 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 946 hPa.

Position on February 23 at 4 p.m. local time: 19.8 South / 65.7 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 1040 km to the East sector

Distance from Mayotte: 2320 km to the East-Southeast sector

Movement: SOUTHWEST, at 22 km/h.

[sasha_B]

Horacio's current intensity seems comparable to Cyclone Dudzai at its peak, based on satellite imagery. We have a T6.0 fix from JTWC (based on VIS), T6.5 from UW-CIMSS ADT, and a subjective Dvorak fix based on EIR imagery would support T6.5 or 7.0, depending on which frame you're looking at (WMG eye surrounded by W or B, plus 1.0 adjustment for CMG). A simple blend of those estimates supports 125 kt / 928 hPa.

[Yellow Evan]

Probably around 125 knots now yes. The SIO does it again.

[Teban54]

[sasha_B]

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HORACIO)

B. 23/1431Z

C. 20.08S

D. 65.46E

E. ONE/MET9

F. T7.0/7.0/D3.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS AN E#
OF 6.0. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A DT OF 7.0. MET
YIELDS 5.5. PT YIELDS 6.0. DBO DT. BROKE CONSTRAINTS DUE TO RAPID
INTENSIFICATION. REANALYZED PREVIOUS FIX FOR INTENSITY.

CI 7.0 from JTWC (and Adj. T 7.0 / FT 6.7 from ADT). We might be close to our first SSHWS Category 5 of 2026 (though it's unlikely to be reflected in the operational BT, with the 12z point having been only 110 kt.)

[cycloneye]

[sasha_B]

F. T7.0/7.0/D3.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE (+19C) SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A
DT OF 7.0. MET YIELDS 5.5. PT YIELDS 6.0. DBO DT.

(emphasis added)

Don't think Horacio has much longer at peak intensity, but what a show - and thankfully, far from populated areas.

It's hard for me to imagine the rationale behind setting the CI to 115 kt / 948 hPa for 18z. Even taking a maximally conservative approach - weighing the lowest Vmax estimates (DPrint bottom 25th percentile, satcon, and the 12-hour-old forecast point for 18z) three times as heavily as DT/ADT/AIDT, all these data points would blend down to no less than 120 kt, for which CKZ would yield a substantially lower central pressure of 938 hPa.

Edit: 18z BT point adjusted to 140 kt, 920 hPa. Horacio is officially the first (JTWC-assessed) Category 5 cyclone of 2026.

[cycloneye]

-------------------------------------------------

INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE HORACIO


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 215 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 295 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 933 hPa.

Position on February 23 at 10 p.m. local time: 20.6 South / 65.1 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 965 km to the East sector

Distance from Mayotte: 2300 km to the East-Southeast sector

Movement: SOUTH-SOUTHWEST, at 20 km/h.

[cycloneye]

It peaked as cat 5 at 18:00 UTC and now is downhill from here going to extratropical.

INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE HORACIO


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 215 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 295 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 935 hPa.

Position on February 24 at 04:00 local time: 21.5 South / 64.5 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 900 km to the East

Distance from Mayotte: 2270 km to the East-Southeast sector

Movement: SOUTH-SOUTHWEST, at 19 km/h.

System information:

- HORACIO appears to have reached its peak intensity last night at the upper end of the intense tropical cyclone stage. It is a particularly intense cyclone for such a southern latitude (around 21°S)

[MarioProtVI]

Of course I miss a Cat 5 in the SWIO (the first since 2023, pending Chido’s reanalysis) because of me suffering a historic blizzard here in New Jersey

[cycloneye]

Beautiful image when it was at peak intensity.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/i/status/2026094690999967886


 https://x.com/i/status/2026114266034794602

[cycloneye]

INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE HORACIO


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 175 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 250 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 954 hPa.

Position on February 24 at 10 a.m. local time: 22.5 South / 64.2 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 880 km to the East-Southeast sector

Distance from Mayotte: 2290 km to the East-Southeast sector

Movement: SOUTH-SOUTHWEST, at 19 km/h.

System information:

- After reaching its peak intensity last night, HORACIO has begun to weaken. It is still temporarily an intense tropical cyclone and is moving south-southwest, away from Rodrigues.

- This Tuesday, HORACIO should gradually curve its trajectory towards the south and then towards the south-southeast, continuing to weaken considerably.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Cyclone Horacio


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 155 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 220 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 962 hPa.

Position on February 24 at 4 p.m. local time: 23.7 South / 64.4 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 920 km to the East-Southeast sector

Distance from Mayotte: 2360 km to the SOUTH-EAST sector

Movement: SOUTH, at 22 km/h.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Cyclone Horacio


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 150 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 215 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 964 hPa.

Position on February 24 at 10 p.m. local time: 25.0 South / 64.8 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 1000 km to the East-Southeast sector

Distance from Mayotte: 2460 km to the SOUTH-EAST sector

Movement: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST, at 30 km/h.

[cycloneye]

It was a spectacular fotogenic cyclone when it was at the peak.

 https://x.com/CIRA_CSU/status/2026438039321338015

[cycloneye]

Tropical Cyclone Horacio


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 140 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 195 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 968 hPa.

Position on February 25 at 04:00 local time: 26.4 South / 65.3 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 1120 km to the East-Southeast sector

Distance from Mayotte: 2590 km to the SOUTH-EAST sector

Movement: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST, at 28 km/h.