I-95 Winter Over (Richmond,Fredericksburg,DC,BWI)

[Cheesy_Poofs]

There will be no major 24-inch snow in Woodbridge, VA this February or March. Mark my words. These storms only hit us ONCE every FEW YEARS.

NO ONE EVER said we were going to see a major 24" snow storm this year.

[donsutherland1]

BigEyedFish,

Today's 18Z run of the GFS isn't the only model run that suggests the possibility of a big storm next week--it's too soon to get into precipitation-type arguments.

There has been other model support e.g., the European Model, not to mention ensemble support, and consistent runs of the GFS suggesting the possibility of a big storm next week.

If one examines the synoptic pattern evolution (and I had mentioned the possibility of a significant storm back in my February outlook of January 21), there have been hints of something, especially for the February 10-20 period, for some time. Things continue to move along toward this possibility.

Then, if one is looking ahead to March, consider the possibility of a West QBO, dry MJO for perhaps the first half of the month, Pacific Ocean SSTAs, etc. What has happened in the past with similar setups? Ultimately, it is possible that those of us who believe that there could be a big storm in March might be proved wrong, but it won't be because we were out in proverbial Left Field from the start.

[Guest]

Now Jeb thats a horrible explanation at best as to why you think thier wont be any big snows in VA and you i think well know that. I hope so anyways.

Mind telling me what you think major snows are for N.VA??????????

[donsutherland1]

FLguy,

All here are very lucky that you are willing to look beyond the Tropics to share with us your ideas on a national scale. I, for one, greatly appreciate it.

[FLguy]

BigEyedFish,

Today's 18Z run of the GFS isn't the only model run that suggests the possibility of a big storm next week--it's too soon to get into precipitation-type arguments.

There has been other model support e.g., the European Model, not to mention ensemble support, and consistent runs of the GFS suggesting the possibility of a big storm next week.

If one examines the synoptic pattern evolution (and I had mentioned the possibility of a significant storm back in my February outlook of January 21), there have been hints of something, especially for the February 10-20 period, for some time. Things continue to move along toward this possibility.

Then, if one is looking ahead to March, consider the possibility of a West QBO, dry MJO for perhaps the first half of the month, Pacific Ocean SSTAs, etc. What has happened in the past with similar setups? Ultimately, it is possible that those of us who believe that there could be a big storm in March might be proved wrong, but it won't be because we were out in proverbial Left Field from the start.

the last time we had a similar EQ PAC SSTA and QBO reversal was 1996-97, and that year had the MAR 31-APR 1 nor'easter.

[FLguy]

FLguy,

All here are very lucky that you are willing to look beyond the Tropics to share with us your ideas on a national scale. I, for one, greatly appreciate it.

thanks, its not a problem. i enjoy it, and if i did not i would not be here. and of course we all appreciate the detailed information you provide.

[donsutherland1]

That was quite a storm.

[Guest]

FLguy,

All here are very lucky that you are willing to look beyond the Tropics to share with us your ideas on a national scale. I, for one, greatly appreciate it.

thanks, its not a problem. i enjoy it, and if i did not i would not be here. and of course we all appreciate the detailed information you provide.

I for one greatly appericate both of what you guys bring to the table here! Very detailed and very informative.

[FLguy]

That was quite a storm.

exactly, from a climo standpoint, and based on analogs which we have discussed, i see no reason why a similar event would not occur this year.

infact even at this stage in the game, (and at this long range) i think its more probable that a major march nor'easter does occur rather than not.

[Anonymous]

Jeb,

Several points:

1) You wrote: "Then tell me we're gonna get a lot of snow in Woodbridge in early March!! I'll point you to the nearest hospital, cuz you're full of baloney!!"

As you invoked climatology, I'll point out that the climatological normal for March snowfall for Washington, DC is 1.6". So, if let's say 2" falls, that's above average. If 6" or more falls, that's a lot of snow for March.

I expect 6" or more for March so send me to either GWU or Bethesda.

2) You also wrote, "Many of us down here in N VA have been shafted pretty badly." Relative to climatology, no that isn't the case. Relative to other cities, I agree, and I empathize with all snow lovers who have not received as much as they desire.

3) You also wrote, " You were right about the cold!! Fine, but have the guts to admit YOU WERE WRONG ABOUT SNOW IN THE MID ATLANTIC THIS WINTER. Because you were."

<i>Were? </i>

Did two months pass me by without my having noticed it? Let me check my calendar

What a relief! It's still February. Winter is not finished. Therefore, the timeframe in question is not finished.

If February sees below normal snowfall for DCA, I'll certainly mention my error. If March sees below normal snowfall, I'll do the same. I don't think it's a good practice to preverify forecasts.

Also, if we were right about the cold, why not allow us some patience to see if we will prove similarly right with respect to the return of the snow?

Finally, to put things into perspective, here is the data for Baltimore and Washington, DC:

<b>Baltimore:</b>

Normal seasonal snowfall: 18.0"
2003-04 Snowfall to Date: 18.0"

Instances with consecutive winters with 40" of snow and then 20" or more: 5 since Winter 1883-84

<b>Washington, DC:</b>

Normal seasonal snowfall: 15.2"
2003-04 Snowfall to Date: 12.4"

Instances with consecutive winters with 40" of snow and then 20" or more: 3 since Winter 1888-89

In short, both cities are well on their way toward above normal snowfall. If they reach 20", given the historical odds against it in winters following seasons with 40" or more of snow, this would be a pretty special winter in its own right.

Don, that was an entertaining, informative, and humorous post. You don't need to go to any hospital, you're saner than I'll ever be lol. I forget that you folks always have those FACTS straight and close at hand and I salute that kind of readiness.

I just need to find a way to move to Jay Peak where I can enjoy snow-filled jebwalks and shovel snow until May every winter.

I guess my problem is I want too much snow and live in the wrong place lol. (Ouch!) Okay bud, you got me COLD on the facts, but I still think (And I could be wrong) that Woodbridge VA will not see any more snow this winter beyond a couple more flurries and possibly a couple inches of slushy snow in above-freezing conditions.

The timing of cold and storms this winter for the Mid Atlantic is way off. If we get the cold dry air, the cold, dry air tends to eat up most of the snowfall. Poor Mid Atlantic just can't get a big snow this winter.

Oh well, I have my spring jebwalks..............


-Jeb

[Dave C]

King of Weather has a thread about top 5 winter events and I just realized that was left off my list! 18 inches on the ground in my back yard at the end of the storm even with melting and compacting which occured due to previous 60 deg.+ temps the days leading up to the storm. Amazing 3 ft. NW of Boston where snow occured from start to finish. Locally we had about 8hrs. rain followed by 16 hrs. heavy wet snow with 2+ inch per hr. rates during height of storm.

[Anonymous]

Now Jeb thats a horrible explanation at best as to why you think thier wont be any big snows in VA and you i think well know that. I hope so anyways.

Mind telling me what you think major snows are for N.VA??????????

This winter the timing of cold and storms has been off so that we do not get any big snows in N VA east of the mts., and that has been very very frustrating, especially because I live so much for snow-related jebwalks plus blasting various songs on my CD headphones while walking in the snow. Plus I have fallen head over heels in love with walking on ice!!

I admit that what Climo says is a major snow for N VA and what I think should be a major snow for N VA are two completely different things.

I am definitely NO MATCH for a good meteorologist and his facts.

LOL LOL LOL LOL (I'm laughing at myself folks)

Yeah I really need to move to Jay Peak or the Allegheny Front at the very least.

I think a major snow for N VA should be 12 inches of snow in one storm. Climo is probably more like 4 to 6 inches LOL.


Okay folks, I would like Don, SF, KOW, and FLguy to tell all of us exactly how much snow do you think Woodbridge, VA can expect IF a snowstorm DOES materialize between now and March 31. How many inches of snow can Woodbridge reasonably expect from such a storm later this month or in early/mid March?


-Jeb

[Stormsfury]

First off,

FLguy (and Don) makes an excellent point about the QBO reversal which will be taking place (or already has) based on extrapolation ... and the continued PNA pattern for the foreseeable future coupled with the potential of a continued -NAO pattern just SCREAMS POTENTIAL ... and IMHO, in the foreseeable future, before this pattern breaks, we HAVE to HAVE a BLOCkBLUSTER of a storm to initiate a pattern change ...

The PV is set to bombard the NE again with a FLOOD of arctic air once again in the next few days, and once that PULLS out would LIKELY become the 50/50 low (NF Low) and some of the guidance hints at SOME BLOCKING of the pattern ...

There are just way too many parameters that are beginning to come in line for a memorable storm, and IMHO, based on these factors, we WILL LIKELY have one before this winter season concludes ...

SF

[donsutherland1]

Jeb,

Did you see the seasonal norms? Baltimore is already at its normal seasonal snowfall. Washington, D.C. is very close. The call for above normal snowfall for the Mid-Atlantic is looking good at this stage.

Do you really want to stick to the following position: <i>I still think...that Woodbridge VA will not see any more snow this winter beyond a couple more flurries and possibly a couple inches of slushy snow in above-freezing conditions.</i> I strongly believe Woodbridge will see more than 2" additional snow before the winter is finished.

Finally, I fully understand how one can be frustrated with receiving less snowfall than one expects/desires.

[FLguy]

First off,

FLguy (and Don) makes an excellent point about the QBO reversal which will be taking place (or already has) based on extrapolation ... and the continued PNA pattern for the foreseeable future coupled with the potential of a continued -NAO pattern just SCREAMS POTENTIAL ... and IMHO, in the foreseeable future, before this pattern breaks, we HAVE to HAVE a BLOCkBLUSTER of a storm to initiate a pattern change ...

The PV is set to bombard the NE again with a FLOOD of arctic air once again in the next few days, and once that PULLS out would LIKELY become the 50/50 low (NF Low) and some of the guidance hints at SOME BLOCKING of the pattern ...

There are just way too many parameters that are beginning to come in line for a memorable storm, and IMHO, based on these factors, we WILL LIKELY have one before this winter season concludes ...

SF

and with the west QBO, the PJ will relax, and the PNA will become more presistently positive. remember also, low QBO values (less than 10.00) and especially in the positive phase tend to correlate quite strongly with an increased probability for a major east coast snow event.

[FLguy]

and ENSO neutral - west winters following an EL nino tend to behave much the same as the El Nino that came before.

[donsutherland1]

Jeb,

You wrote:

<i>I would like Don...to tell all of us exactly how much snow do you think Woodbridge, VA can expect IF a snowstorm DOES materialize between now and March 31. How many inches of snow can Woodbridge reasonably expect from such a storm later this month or in early/mid March?</i>

Maybe I should be taken up Wisconsin Avenue to Bethesda for this response, but if the idea of a possible significant storm this month and in March haven't already led to my being committed, maybe no one will notice this latest act of seeming insanity:

Per my January <b>review</b> of past years with a similar setup to the current one, I'll offer the following probabilities for Woodbridge:

10" or greater storm: around 60%
6" or greater storm: around 75%
4" or greater storm: 85%

[Stephanie]

Oh sheesh, I'm glad it doesn't get like this during the tropical season.

It DOESN'T??? :-?

[FLguy]

Oh sheesh, I'm glad it doesn't get like this during the tropical season.

It DOESN'T??? :-?

steph, most of the hardcore weenies leave as the snow melts.

[Stephanie]

I know Flguy - but it can get alittle hairy none the less!