WORST CASE POSSIBILITIES....

[GalvestonDuck]

Any major hurricane hitting Galveston and following 45 north to the Houston metro We have been lucky for quite a while .....

*thumps you on the head for even imagining such a thing*

Worst case scenario (IMO) -- a large (as in wide, broad) Cat 5 NOT making direct, straight-on landfall on just one coastal region, but edging right along the coast and striking everywhere from, let's say Pensacola to Mobile Bay to Pascagoula to Gulfport then SSW into Lake Ponchatrain and NOLA then westward through Sabine Pass and on to Hou/Galv.

[GalvestonDuck]

I have a good one:

Hurricane Bret never makes the turn back to the west. As you recall, the NHC had forecsated a turn to the west for a couple of days and it never happened. The originally forecasted it into Tampico but because of an upper low in northern Mexico, the storm continued due north.

Here is the scenerio: The upper low does not move off and the 300 mb steering winds continue to be northerly over Bret. There is no Hurricane warning for the Houston area because of the forecasted turn. However, during the night of the 21st and morning of the 22nd, Bret does not turn and since no warnings were issued on the evening of the 21st, a SATURDAY NIGHT, nobody is paying attention. Houstonians awaken mid-Sunday morning to hurricane warnings and a dangerous Category 4 hurricane sitting only 90 miles to their south with no time to evacuate.

Bret continues moving northward and makes landfall near Freeport with winds of 140 MPH. Hosutonians had about 12 hours to evacuate and most are still on the road when it hits.

Now...this is actually what was going through my mind on that night since the turn had yet to occur (and it had been foreacsted to for 2 days and hadn't).

Lucky for Houston the low did sag south and turn Bret to the west.

This is the worst case scenerio for Houston (or for any city)...major storm...no warnings on a weekend night and the population awakens to a dangerous storm that will make landfall in 12 hours. It almost happened.

That was my first full-fledged experience with watching and waiting for *what* would happen with a major cane in the GOM, after I first moved here. I remember Bret ALL too well and I was scared spitless that it wouldn't turn!!

*shivers*

[Lindaloo]

Worst case scenario (IMO) -- a large (as in wide, broad) Cat 5 NOT making direct, straight-on landfall on just one coastal region, but edging right along the coast and striking everywhere from, let's say Pensacola to Mobile Bay to Pascagoula to Gulfport then SSW into Lake Ponchatrain and NOLA then westward through Sabine Pass and on to Hou/Galv.

[cctx]

Everybody is offering up cat4 and cat5 storms in their "worst case scenarios" and with all the power and distruction they posess I can understand that. On the other side of this what if Allison had hung around Houston for another week or ten days? I can't imagine how bad it would have been then.

[vbhoutex]

Everybody is offering up cat4 and cat5 storms in their "worst case scenarios" and with all the power and distruction they posess I can understand that. On the other side of this what if Allison had hung around Houston for another week or ten days? I can't imagine how bad it would have been then.

YOU'RE JUST PLAIN MEAN!!!!!

THE DESTRUCTION WOULD HAVE BEEN UNIMAGINABLE!!!!!!

Literally millions would have been forced from their homes and literally hudreds of thousands would have lost everything.

Duck! You and I think too much alike!!(except for where you live!!hehehehe ) That was another scenario I had in mind except going the opposite way just riding the coast from say Corpus all the way East to the Fl panhandle. It would be a slow mover with copious rains accompanying it also. Fortunately, any storm that rides the coast will not be able to maintain that much strength. However, Flossy in 1958(?)did just about that from TX to FL and came ashore right over Pensacola as a CAT1. That was the first Hurricane I remember. Don't know if it was my first Tropical cyclone though.

[NC George]

Let's see: a hurricane's remnants stall over the area, totally filling all lakes and rivers, and totally saturating the ground.

Then about 1-2 weeks later, a much larger, stronger hurricane comes, dumps about 20"-30" of rain, flooding the entire area.

Oh wait, we already had that storm, it was FLOYD.

[Anonymous]

A catgeory 4 whose northern eyewall rakes the panhandle, then MS and AL. Then it stalls off shore and skirts the northerneyewall over the Big Easy, and into houston. Then it turns SW, reaches 150 mph again and has a direct hit on Brownsville.

[cctx]

I can't believe you said I was just plain mean, Vbhoutex. I'm one of the least mean people I know. I thought I was just engaging in "what if..." like everybody else. If I offended you I'm very sorry for I never meant for my scenario to be taken personally.

[bevgo]

I have serious doubts that Vbhoutec meant you were mean. Probably just kidding. Try not to take it personally. You were doing what everyone else is doing. I didn't take it personally when the first few posters were using New Orleans in their senarios so I doubl Vb did either. Way too early in the season to get offended.

[Janie34]

As I recall, Allison sure caused havoc in the Houston area and then moved east into our area. As I think about that for a moment, I realise Allison was indeed one of those storms that came in right along the coast and proceeded to move parallel to the coastline, albeit inland. In fact, it is literally a textbook case now. I've seen Allison's story in two different Met textbooks, its a strong lesson about what these tropical cyclones can do....

I listed New Orleans as an example because I'm quite familiar with the topography and climatology of the area, and I know few other places along the northen Gulf Coast are as vulnerable (population and property-wise) as New Orleans. I wouldn't wish a major hurricane on anyone.

[vbhoutex]

I can't believe you said I was just plain mean, Vbhoutex. I'm one of the least mean people I know. I thought I was just engaging in "what if..." like everybody else. If I offended you I'm very sorry for I never meant for my scenario to be taken personally.

WHOA!!! I WAS JOKING!!!! I'm sorry if I didn't make that clear!!! My dry sense of humor tends to get me in trouble sometimes. I guess this is one of them.

Thanks for coming to my defense Bevgo.

Like you, and I have posted this many times, I WOULD NEVER WISH A HURRICANE ON ANYONE!!! I have been through way too many to even think of that!!

[chadtm80]

Dang that VB and his trouble starting.. lol No worries cctx. He was kidding for sure.

[Rainband]

Complacency anywhere and Not listening to your local officials when they ask you to leave. Thats a worst case scenario

[bahamaswx]

Why do all these worst case possibilities include the USA? I'm sure any state would take a category 5 better than a poverty stricken country.

[Hurricanehink]

Why do all these worst case possibilities include the USA? I'm sure any state would take a category 5 better than a poverty stricken country.

What if the Bangladesh storm of 1970 struck today..... bad news! That is certainly possible.

[cctx]

Guess it's my turn to eat crow -- if I can get this foot out of my mouth vbhoutex I'd like to say I'm sorry.

[PTPatrick]

What if Mitch has done the same thing, to some say somewhere on the US coast...I dont think it would have been fun...

[Lindaloo]

Guess it's my turn to eat crow -- if I can get this foot out of my mouth vbhoutex I'd like to say I'm sorry.

Need some help?

[bevgo]

I don't think crow is called for quite yet. There will be better opportunities for all of us to eat crow, How about a little hummingbird for now? Just kidding of course. Most of the people (if not all) are really nice on this board. If you see a comment that you think is not nice stop and think before you react because it is probably just someone being funny. I have never been insulted on this board. Wait till the season really gets started and you will see how wild it can get!

[cctx]

Thanks Lindaloo for the offer to help me remove my foot from my mouth, but I have had to do it a time or two (or three? -- nah!) in the past so I'll probably be okay. I love this board and nearly everybody on it is nice and very free with sharing their knowlege. Obviously my perception was off and I will know better then to knee jerk reaction next time. And if it's all the same to you bevgo I'll take a pass on the hummingbird. Keep it warm, just in case.