Is ex 97L trying to come back or we can stick a fork?

The_Cycloman_PR · #41 Postby **The_Cycloman_PR** » Fri Jul 23, 2004 9:55 pm

Enough with the fight! :grr:

Let's wait for the wave to go across Yucatan and get into the GOM if it does and see what happen with it, and both of you will get your answer. Then we'll all know who was right and wrong... Fighting your points this way won't apport anything healty to the board...

TropicalWXJustin · #42 Postby **TropicalWXJustin** » Fri Jul 23, 2004 9:56 pm

Currently the wave looks way better then it did and once it gets in the gulf it should have more of a chance. Let me say this though if it does develop it going to make some people look like idiots. Forecasters should never say never to any entity, because things change fast and all forecasters know this but they always act like things don't change fast. I bet the other day all the people that said this thing was going to develop when it looked good were made to eat alot of crow, so i wouldn't get on someone for complaining about everyone sticking a fork in this one. I currently have not stuck a fork in this one and i won't till its over land like every forecaster should do, because you never know. :idea:

Stormchaser16 · #43 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Fri Jul 23, 2004 9:57 pm

We cant have a discussion without someone thinking it is a fight now?

BTW...... have you read what I have been saying all along with this wave, its done as far as its Caribbean life goes, I never said there wasnt potential when/if it gets into the gulf. However, with the way it looks now, Im worried it may not make it over the Yucatan, but the better environment IMO is in the GOM.

TropicalWXJustin · #44 Postby **TropicalWXJustin** » Fri Jul 23, 2004 9:58 pm

Stormchaser16 wrote:I dont know if anyone could disagree with the fact that this is just like what happened to it last time it fired up convection......

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastnhewv.html

Its pretty obvious its difluent flow that is helping it fire it up, but like last time, this is not favorable for development

If thats the case then we shouldn't be watching 98L. Because its the same thing for this entity.

Stormchaser16 · #45 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Fri Jul 23, 2004 9:59 pm

Good and valid point Justin..... my only point is that it's on such life support if you will, that it really has no chance unless it can make it into the GOM..... I never really was on board this wave to develop in the Caribbean, my money was always placed on the GOM if anything at all

rbaker · #46 Postby **rbaker** » Fri Jul 23, 2004 10:00 pm

never said it has circulation except for broad circulation at the most, and I see its strung out.
Funny how you say its running out of water, you have been saying that now for about a day and a half, and bascially it's in the same area that it was 24hours ago, hardly the 25mph that you said it was going. We could argue this all night long, I guess I don't give up on waves like you do because they lost their llc or were ripped apart for a couple days.
Maybe, you ought to look at Andrew in 92. And before you say it I know this is no Andrew in potential, but what systems can do.

Stormchaser16 · #47 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Fri Jul 23, 2004 10:00 pm

Well....... yes and no, 98L at least has some sort of circulation..... but I dont like 98L ATT either lol

TropicalWXJustin · #48 Postby **TropicalWXJustin** » Fri Jul 23, 2004 10:00 pm

Key is no mattrer what the enviroment we should watch every enity. Because you never know. Yeah conditions might not be ideal but things change quickly as we all should know.

The_Cycloman_PR · #49 Postby **The_Cycloman_PR** » Fri Jul 23, 2004 10:01 pm

Stormchaser16 wrote:We cant have a discussion without someone thinking it is a fight now?

BTW...... have you read what I have been saying all along with this wave, its done as far as its Caribbean life goes, I never said there wasnt potential when/if it gets into the gulf. However, with the way it looks now, Im worried it may not make it over the Yucatan, but the better environment IMO is in the GOM.

Just light your tone a little bit... this is for entertainmen man.

I have been in disagreement many times here but not as you are. I always watch the way I put my points....But you are correct, this is not my problem...I am gone...

rbaker · #50 Postby **rbaker** » Fri Jul 23, 2004 10:03 pm

stormchaser16, you can see by most recent post we all have our different views, but every system has to watched.

Stormchaser16 · #51 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Fri Jul 23, 2004 10:03 pm

It WAS going 25 mph awhile ago, I did not post all day yesterday on this entity(if at all on anything) for you to come to that conclusion. Yes the wave HAS slowed down, as expected, but it IS heading towards land.... Im only giving up on it for the rest of the Caribbean because I dont think it has much of a chance, if it develops into something here, then Ill be sure to be the first to say that I was wrong, but I just dont see it. My fork in the wave is basically my forecast for it, no development likely in the Caribbean, this is the only point that I am trying to make.

rbaker · #52 Postby **rbaker** » Fri Jul 23, 2004 10:07 pm

why didn't you say that in the first place, without going into all that other stuff? Time will tell, and Im not going to be the first one to call you up on the forum and say "I told ya so", and I don't expect it from you either. Good night.

Stormchaser16 · #53 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Fri Jul 23, 2004 10:08 pm

Well cyclonman, you have your way of making points, and I have mine, I am not and have not and will not personally attack rbaker for his views on the wave, nor should he do so to me.

Of course I will keep watching what was 97L at one time, to monitor the situation. I guess I am more of a practical/realistic forecaster rather then looking at all the what ifs and sudden change theories. Yes the environment could change very quickly, but like i said im putting my money on the ULL still inhibiting development until it gets to the GOM, if it changes real quick, then hey, more power to ya. But what I am seeing, and what environmental conditions I am seeing are leading me to believe that its life is done in the Caribbean. To put it in short, i am more of a conservative forecaster rather then a forecaster who goes with the press the odds theories

Stormchaser16 · #54 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Fri Jul 23, 2004 10:09 pm

That is what I have been saying all along lol, every post Ive made has stated that my thoughts were this thing would have more of a chance in the GOM lol.....

HouTXmetro · #55 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Fri Jul 23, 2004 11:18 pm

I'll be the first to admit I gave up on 97L a few days ago. This latest blow up is very impressive. Do you all honestly think 97L has a chance of developing and hitting the U.S????? If it was up to me I would will the storm right up the upper Texas coast. What needs to occur for that to happen?

lilbump3000 · #56 Postby **lilbump3000** » Fri Jul 23, 2004 11:42 pm

Even though both 97L and 98L looks disorganized, it looks like 97L is just a little better than 98L. Theres really nothing left of 98L, with that big ULL spinning. 97L really havent moved in the past 24 hours. But we will know more when tomorrow comes.

TS Zack · #57 Postby **TS Zack** » Sat Jul 24, 2004 1:32 am

Number 1 you need the system to form. Number two hope for a strong high to build in place. Number three hope for no trough to dig down.
Tell me when those 3 numbers happen!

Anonymous · #58 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Jul 24, 2004 4:08 am

well at this very moment I can safely say it puts 98L to shame.

Is ex 97L trying to come back or we can stick a fork?

Who is online