OK...Time for a Storm2K Concensus Forecast...Please Join

[SouthernWx]

Forecast for 9/19/2004 12Z

Initial: 8 AM 23.5N 72.4 W 40 Knots

+12: 24.8N 72.2W 45 kts
+24: 27.0N 71.8W 50 kts
+36: 28.2N 70.5W 55 kts
+48: 27.5N 70.0W 55 kts
+72: 26.2N 70.8W 65 kts
+96: 26.0N 73.0W 75 kts
+120 26.0N 77.0W 85 kts

[MWatkins]

The S2K Consensus forecast will be out but late...I have my forecast ready but need to take kiddos to breakfast...

MW

[cswitwer]

Mike, I was unable to find the 8am coordinates this morning before I had to leave the house for a while. Here is my forecast using those coordinates. I have seen no other threads, and have not read or accessed any 11am info.


Initial: 8PM 23.5N 72.2W 45 Knots
12 hours: 24.2N 72.1W 45 Knots
+24: 25.9N 72.9W 40 Knots
+36: 27.2N 73.2.0W 45 Knots
+48: 27.9N 72.8W 50 Knots
+72: 28.0N 73.5W 50 Knots
+96: 29.1N 74.9W 55 Knots
+120: 29.8N 75.2W 60 Knots

[ColdFront77]

I agree with the looping, but unfortunately that isn't reflective in my two forecasts above.

[MWatkins]

Ensemble from this morning (3):

cswitwer
southernwx
nwhcc

0 23.5N 72.3W 40 Knots
+12 24.5N 72.1W 42 Knots
+24 26.1N 71.9W 43 Knots
+36 27.3N 71.4W 48 Knots
+48 27.1N 71.1W 50 Knots
+72 26.7N 71.9W 53 Knots
+96 27.2N 73.8W 58 Knots
+120 27.6N 76.1W 63 Knots

MW

MW

[SouthernWx]

I'm becoming more convinced Jeanne won't make landfall on the U.S....especially not in southern Florida, but still don't buy into the rapid east to ENE movement progged by the GFS and GFDL.

I'm leaning more to the ECMWF solution....and Jeanne becoming a strong hurricane before recurving east of Cape Hatteras (perhaps a close call).

Forecast for 9/20/2004 00Z

Initial: 8 PM 24.8N 72.5 W 50 Knots

+12: 26.2N 72.3W 55 kts
+24: 27.2N 71.6W 60 kts
+36: 27.5N 70.5W 65 kts
+48: 26.2N 70.0W 70 kts
+72: 25.4N 71.0W 75 kts
+96: 25.4N 73.0W 80 kts
+120 27.0N 74.5W 90 kts

[ColdFront77]

Perry, I wouldn't think you will change your mind if the models switch back to what they were
indicating this morning and yesterday and/or for a different consensus... rather than out to sea?

[cswitwer]

Initial: 8 PM 24.8N 72.5 W 50 Knots
12 hours: 26.1N 73.2W 45 Knots
+24: 26.9N 73.9W50 Knots
+36: 27.9N 75.1W 50 Knots
+48: 28.9N 75.2W 55 Knots
+72: 30.1N 75.3W 65 Knots
+96: 31.7N 76.2W 70 Knots
+120: 32.8N 75.8W 65 Knots

[Matthew5]

Here is my model!
00z

Hours Lat/long winds
0+ 25.2/72.0 50 knots
6+ 25.9/71.8 55 knots
12+ 26.7/71.5 55 knots
24+ 27.9/70.7 60 knots
36+ 28.9/69.7 70 knots
48+ 29.2/68.7 80 knots
60+ 30.6/68.2 90 knots
72+ 32.9/67.5 90 knots


Matthew

[cswitwer]

Initial: 8 AM 26.0N 71.9 W 50 Knots
12 hours: 26.9N 71.7W 55 Knots
+24: 28.1N 71.2W 60 Knots
+36: 28.9N 770.9W 60 Knots
+48: 29.8N 69.7W 65 Knots
+72: 30.2N 68.5W 60 Knots
+96: 30.7N 67.0W 65 Knots
+120: 30.8N 65.8W 65 Knots

I've taken that westward turn out of my forecast for now.

[kevin]

Okay. I'll join in on this sometime (maybe next storm we do it for). What would be cool is if someone were to make a program for it (with graphics and everything) and have a database where we could analyze the results of forecasts over time and put weights on their handling of storms. Members might be able to log into the server and post their forecast.

This could be a great self criticism tool! And produce some fun graphics.

[vbhoutex]

Okay. I'll join in on this sometime (maybe next storm we do it for). What would be cool is if someone were to make a program for it (with graphics and everything) and have a database where we could analyze the results of forecasts over time and put weights on their handling of storms. Members might be able to log into the server and post their forecast.

This could be a great self criticism tool! And produce some fun graphics.

Could be very interesting on the graphics!!!!
Once I have my home comp back up and running I'll join in. Hopefully sometime tomorrow.

[SouthernWx]

My evening forecast on Jeanne...

Forecast for 9/23/2004 00Z

Initial: 8 PM 25.8N 69.1 W 85 Knots

+12: 25.4N 70.0W 85 kts
+24: 25.3N 71.3W 90 kts
+36: 25.3N 72.8W 90 kts
+48: 25.4N 74.4W 95 kts
+72: 26.1N 79.0W 105 kts (nearing SE FL)
+96: 28.0N 82.0W 70 kts (inland east of Tampa, FL)
+120 31.5N 83.0W 40 kts (inland over southern Georgia)

[ncweatherwizard]

If you would like to include my forecasts and try to interpolate the points, I'm fine with that. Otherwise, it's really difficult for me to issue forecasts each night at a certain time.

[ncweatherwizard]

If you would like to include my forecasts and try to interpolate the points, I'm fine with that. Otherwise, it's really difficult for me to issue forecasts each night at a certain time.

Or I can interpolate them if I get the time, and I'll try to release it when needed.

[Stormsfury]

Initial - 23/0000Z 25.8N 69.1W 85 KT

Code: Select all

 12HR VT     23/1200Z 25.2N  69.9W    85 KT
 24HR VT     23/1800Z 25.0N  71.1W    95 KT
 36HR VT     24/0600Z 25.3N  72.6W   100 KT
 48HR VT     24/1800Z 26.0N  74.4W   105 KT
 72HR VT     25/1800Z 27.6N  78.0W   100 KT
 96HR VT     26/1800Z 30.5N  80.9W    90 KT
120HR VT     27/1800Z 34.0N  79.0W    45 KT .. inland in South Carolina


SF

[SouthernWx]

My Thursday morning forecast for hurricane Jeanne.....a major hurricane in southeast Florida appears likely.

Forecast for 9/23/2004 12Z

Initial: 8 AM 25.5N 69.5 W 90 Knots

+12: 25.3N 70.7W 90 kts
+24: 25.4N 72.9W 90 kts
+36: 25.4N 75.8W 100 kts (nearing the NW Bahamas)
+48: 26.0N 79.0W 110 kts (nearing southeast Florida)
+72: 29.0N 82.0W 70 kts (inland near Ocala, FL)
+96: 33.0N 82.0W 45 kts (inland near Augusta, GA)
+120 37.0N 78.5W 35 kts (inland over southern Virginia)