Puerto Rico dodged the worse of the big rain event (Edited)

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
530 PM AST FRI APR 22 2005

.DISCUSSION...

ALL THE ELEMENTS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN HAVE COME TOGETHER
THIS EVENING. THE PRESENCE OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW...APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK HAVE COMBINED WITH
INFLUX OF COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TO RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL. THE LATEST GFS GUIDANCE INITIALIZED WELL ON ALL OF THE
ABOVE MAJOR SYNOPTIC FACTORS AND INDICATED THAT THE LARGE SCALE
SYNOPTIC FORCING WOULD START TO CONVERGE UPON PUERTO RICO AND ST.
CROIX NEAR 00Z. THE LATEST SAT IMAGERY AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE
THAT THIS TIMING IS EXCELLENT.

GIVEN ALL THE ELEMENTS ABOVE...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND U.S.V.I.

&&

.MARINE...

THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL AND SURFACE WIND FIELD AS DEPICTED BY THE
LATEST GFS INDICATE THAT THERE COULD BE STRONG WINDS AND LOCAL WIND
GENERATED WAVES FROM THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. SURFACE WIND SPEEDS
MAY APPROACH 25 KNOTS...WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING EVEN HIGHER VALUES
POSSIBLE. THIS WAS COVERED BY USING A GUST GRID. THE DEVELOPING
SURFACE WINDS COULD RESULT IN WIND GENERATED WAVES IN THE 5 TO 7
FOOT RANGE...BUT MAINLY CONCENTRATED IN THE LOCAL EASTERN CARIBBEAN
WATERS...THE NEAR SHORE WATERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND THE EXTREME NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR A 12 TO 24 HOUR PERIOD COULD BE 4 TO 8
INCHES...WITH EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ISOLATED AREAS AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.


No changes from past discussions as the big rain event is comming together.



Short Range Radar



Long Range Radar

[x-y-no]

Yep - I've got GR fired up on the TJUA radar ... it's coming on pretty fast ...

[msbee]

that's an incredible amount of convection showing on the radar.
I will be tracking it and watching.
I do hope we get some of it as we are still quite dry here.
and I do hope everyone in R and VI will be careful.

[cycloneye]

that's an incredible amount of convection showing on the radar.
I will be tracking it and watching.
I do hope we get some of it as we are still quite dry here.
and I do hope everyone in R and VI will be careful.

You may well get some of this weather there at ST Marteen during the weekend.

[abajan]

A few minutes ago, I had a look at the IR satallite image of the area near Puerto Rico and it almost looks like a TD forming or something! Hope things improve there soon, cycloneye. Keep us informed as you usually do.

Thankfully, the dry spell here in Barbados has been broken.
We've had a few moderately heavy showers since yesterday morning and it's presently raining.

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 231117 RRA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
630 AM AST SAT APR 23 2005

.DISCUSSION...

ENERGETIC...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN LOCATED JUST WEST
OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
FROM THE EAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...ELONGATED...BROAD SURFACE TROUGH/LOW WILL REMAIN
LOCATED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY.
MUCH ADVERTISED AREA OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUED MOVING
NORTH NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND BEGAN TO INTERACT WITH DISTURBANCES
ROTATING THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS
TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT
BEGAN TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND
VIEQUES AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE FRIDAY EVENING...AND
CONTINUE TO AFFECT EXTREME EASTERN PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AT THIS TIME.

HOWEVER...THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS SHIFTED FURTHER
EAST MUCH FASTER THAN FIRST EXPECTED...AND HAS CURRENTLY LEFT THE
WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF PUERTO RICO WITH ONLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN. THIS EASTWARD DISPLACEMENT HAS GREATLY
REDUCED THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANY WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT EXTREME EASTERN PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA
AND VIEQUES AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

FOR TODAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT FURTHER EAST...BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDINESS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PUERTO RICO AND THIS HEATING
SHOULD ALLOW FOR NEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO BY LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL INTERACT WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND LOCAL
EFFECTS...TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLASH OR RIVER FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED
HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY LINGER INTO TONIGHT OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF FA.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN AS TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THIS AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE ONCE IT MOVES EAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY TO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SO...ALTHOUGH THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL HAS
GREATLY DIMINISHED...STILL EXPECT LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOODING TO OCCUR ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AT LEAST FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT.




Puerto Rico has dodged the worse of the big rain event that the big trough was going to cause here as the bulk of the precipitation moved more rapidly eastward than expected.Now that big area of moistere is in the Virgin Islands and in the Northern Leewards including ST Marteen where msbee is.However in PR we can still expect afternoon diurnal showers and thunderstorms as the sun filters thru the clouds this morning but we dodged between 5-10 inches of rain that would haved fallen on top of what already it has fallen this week.

[msbee]

yes, cycloneye, we got it this morning!
Glad we could help out and take some of it away from you

It's a steady light rain right now .
According to my little backyard rain gauge, we have had an inch of rain so far.
Everyone is thankful for it after a couple of months of no rain.
Barbara

[cycloneye]

yes, cycloneye, we got it this morning!
Glad we could help out and take some of it away from you

It's a steady light rain right now .
According to my little backyard rain gauge, we have had an inch of rain so far.
Everyone is thankful for it after a couple of months of no rain.
Barbara

Good news for that island as it has been thru a dry spell for some months.Now let's see if this event aliviates or terminates the drought there.

[cycloneye]

A few minutes ago, I had a look at the IR satallite image of the area near Puerto Rico and it almost looks like a TD forming or something! Hope things improve there soon, cycloneye. Keep us informed as you usually do.

Thankfully, the dry spell here in Barbados has been broken.
We've had a few moderately heavy showers since yesterday morning and it's presently raining.

Yeah abajan it has a look of a tropical entity but of course it is not as this is an upper trough combined with a strong jet stream and an old frontal boundary.Good news about Barbados.

[msbee]

I definitely think our drought is going to be alleviated after this event.
still raining here. Looks like that system is right over us.
I'm glad to hear the good news for Barbados too!

[msbee]

the rain has stopped and the skies are clearing.
we had 6 cm (almost 2.5 inches) of rain, which was very much needed.

[cycloneye]

the rain has stopped and the skies are clearing.
we had 6 cm (almost 2.5 inches) of rain, which was very much needed.

Good for ST Marteen as at least it aliviates the dry conditions there.

But I have to say something about some people here in Puerto Rico not having kind words for the NWS office for not getting the saturday forecast right.The sun was out all day long instead of the copious rains and cloudy conditions that since last monday the NWS had advertised for this weekend.But as I said people turned on radio stations against the NWS folks here saying that they haved lost credebility because of the failed forecast.This is what I am worried about because now people here will not follow the information from the NWS and in future events it may be of tragic consequences.The NWS folks dont deserve this kind of behaving by some people that dont apreciate the hard work they do every day.Mother nature has it's own enviroment and climate changes every second around the world and this case of the strong trough not affecting Puerto Rico as it was expected shows that even the most great forecasters can fail on a forecast.

[msbee]

I'm sorry to hear that Luis.
weather forecasters often get it wrong. It can never be an exact science..too many variables.
but you can never let your guard down. It always pays to be prepared.
it's just like hurricane forecasting. I can't count the number of times we boarded up and nothing happened but if you don't board up and something does come your way, then you are in a lot of trouble.
Barbara

[cycloneye]

I'm sorry to hear that Luis.
weather forecasters often get it wrong. It can never be an exact science..too many variables.
but you can never let your guard down. It always pays to be prepared.
it's just like hurricane forecasting. I can't count the number of times we boarded up and nothing happened but if you don't board up and something does come your way, then you are in a lot of trouble.
Barbara

Agree 100%.Here the emergency management agency was prepared for the worse as they followed the NWS forecast but nothing happened but it was a possible preview for hurricane threats that may arise this upcomming season.

[msbee]

It's been ra8ining here all day again.
that's 2 full days of solid rain.
Barbara

[cycloneye]

It's been ra8ining here all day again.
that's 2 full days of solid rain.
Barbara

How much rain fell on sunday? Regardless of the rainfall totals it is good to see that the drought conditions at least it has aliviated.What you need now are some tropical waves going thru or another big trough like this one to then finish the drought completly.

[msbee]

so far we have had about 1.5 inches today.
and there still are light showeres coming through.
yes, you are right, we can still use another system or two heading our way to completely get rid of the drought.
unfortunately it's Carnival time here and the Children's carnivale parade got rained out today.
well, you can't pick and choose when the rain is going to come.
that's out of our control for sure

[cycloneye]

so far we have had about 1.5 inches today.
and there still are light showeres coming through.
yes, you are right, we can still use another system or two heading our way to completely get rid of the drought.
unfortunately it's Carnival time here and the Children's carnivale parade got rained out today.
well, you can't pick and choose when the rain is going to come.
that's out of our control for sure

We dodged it but you got it although more weaker trough than in the past 2 days.

[msbee]

yes, you did dodge it and it was not so strong for us.
It was never heavy rain, just light steady rain.
the plants in my garden are very happy tonight

[msbee]

more rain last night in st maarten
we had about 2.5 inches last night.
by my calculations and my little rain guage, in the past 3 days we have had about 7 inches of rain over all