Florida Needs to Hope the Atlantic Ridge Collapses for TD #5

[weatherwindow]

just a comment concerning the florida land rush, this migration really began in earnest in the 1970/1980s. interestingly, this coincided with the hurricane minima of the atlantic THC cycle. it has reached a torrent in the 90s, still marked by the relative scarcity of fla landfalling hurricanes. i believe that behavior is a function of experience. hurricanes, altho given lip service, were not viewed as high probability risk to be factored in decisions to relocate here. why?...excepting andrew, no major events in seafla(palm beach, broward, dade, monroe ctys) since 1965. human nature is such that behaviors are rarely changed permanently by one event, but rather by a succession of events. if there has, in fact, been a sea change in the florida's hurricane prospects and if we are to move into a decadal(or greater)era of repetitive landfalls in successive years, i believe it will impact the decisions of many to remain in or relocate to our state. people really are trainable and, on the margin, will factor in a viable perceived threat in their decision-making. just look at the impact of the last truly busy period from the mid-twenties to the mid-sixties. that period is reflected in the relative absence,until the early 80s, of high rise construction, the prevalence of the single story, hip roofed, small windowed "florida" house, common sense flood plain zoning and, in general, relatively sparse population density. and so much more. perhaps, the "flood" will be stemmed as the next two decades enfold............................................rich

[drudd1]

just a comment concerning the florida land rush, this migration really began in earnest in the 1970/1980s. interestingly, this coincided with the hurricane minima of the atlantic THC cycle. it has reached a torrent in the 90s, still marked by the relative scarcity of fla landfalling hurricanes. i believe that behavior is a function of experience. hurricanes, altho given lip service, were not viewed as high probability risk to be factored in decisions to relocate here. why?...excepting andrew, no major events in seafla(palm beach, broward, dade, monroe ctys) since 1965. human nature is such that behaviors are rarely changed permanently by one event, but rather by a succession of events. if there has, in fact, been a sea change in the florida's hurricane prospects and if we are to move into a decadal(or greater)era of repetitive landfalls in successive years, i believe it will impact the decisions of many to remain in or relocate to our state. people really are trainable and, on the margin, will factor in a viable perceived threat in their decision-making. just look at the impact of the last truly busy period from the mid-twenties to the mid-sixties. that period is reflected in the relative absence,until the early 80s, of high rise construction, the prevalence of the single story, hip roofed, small windowed "florida" house, common sense flood plain zoning and, in general, relatively sparse population density. and so much more. perhaps, the "flood" will be stemmed as the next two decades enfold............................................rich

As a Floridian, I can hope that things will slow down a bit, but I am not optimistic. I resigned myself long ago that the building will stop when there is no more land left to build on.

[Foladar]

nOT LIKING The GFDL Model at all. no Way. Its got a cat 4 north of the islands thrashing through the bahamas and up the middle of florida. Crazy Sruff.

It's very early still but if the ridge holds as it's been doing for the past few weeks it will move right into the E. coast of FL somewhere

in an early call, a stronger more SW moving ridge..it will stay south of fl...and head westward into the gulf

and head to Texas?

latest guidance may suggest a SE FL/FL Keys hit. It's very far out but that is what it is looking at now.

Doubt it, if we're anywhere near any models or 5-day cone (as stated) - it doesn't like to visit.