H Emily Recon Reports

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #41 Postby **senorpepr** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 5:56 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:We can have 747 with 200 people a plane fly into the cat5 hurricane...For 20 dollars a seat for 2 hours a flight.

That's probably not a good idea. I'm not completely up-to-speed on the aeronautics, but a 747 probably wouldn't handle a hurricane too well. Let's leave it for the WC-130H and WP-3D.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #42 Postby **senorpepr** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 6:09 pm

Okay... they've dropped to 10,000ft.

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 10
Flight ID: AF304
Flt Data Number: 16
Latest Ob Location: 60 mi NE of Kingston, Jamaica

Ob #01: 22:58:00Z; 18.4°N 77°W; PA: 22674 ft; D-Value: 205 ft; Wind: SE (145°) @ 53 mph; Max Wind: 54 mph; Temp: 57°F; Dewpt: 40°F
Ob #02: 22:58:30Z; 18.4°N 77.1°W; PA: 22126 ft; D-Value: 163 ft; Wind: SE (145°) @ 56 mph; Max Wind: 58 mph; Temp: 55°F; Dewpt: 41°F
Ob #03: 22:59:00Z; 18.4°N 77.1°W; PA: 21453 ft; D-Value: 24 ft; Wind: SE (145°) @ 60 mph; Max Wind: 61 mph; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: 42°F
Ob #04: 22:59:30Z; 18.4°N 77.2°W; PA: 20722 ft; D-Value: -14 ft; Wind: SE (144°) @ 62 mph; Max Wind: 62 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 42°F
Ob #05: 23:00:00Z; 18.4°N 77.2°W; PA: 20010 ft; D-Value: -73 ft; Wind: SE (140°) @ 63 mph; Max Wind: 63 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 42°F
Ob #06: 23:00:30Z; 18.4°N 77.3°W; PA: 19304 ft; D-Value: -197 ft; Wind: SE (138°) @ 61 mph; Max Wind: 62 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 42°F
Ob #07: 23:01:00Z; 18.4°N 77.3°W; PA: 18583 ft; D-Value: -81 ft; Wind: SE (131°) @ 60 mph; Max Wind: 61 mph; Temp: 44°F; Dewpt: 42°F
Ob #08: 23:01:30Z; 18.4°N 77.4°W; PA: 17877 ft; D-Value: -14 ft; Wind: SE (124°) @ 61 mph; Max Wind: 62 mph; Temp: 43°F; Dewpt: 42°F
Ob #09: 23:02:00Z; 18.4°N 77.4°W; PA: 17208 ft; D-Value: 36 ft; Wind: ESE (115°) @ 67 mph; Max Wind: 68 mph; Temp: 42°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #10: 23:02:30Z; 18.4°N 77.5°W; PA: 16483 ft; D-Value: 36 ft; Wind: ESE (112°) @ 69 mph; Max Wind: 69 mph; Temp: 39°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #11: 23:03:00Z; 18.5°N 77.5°W; PA: 15712 ft; D-Value: 5 ft; Wind: ESE (109°) @ 70 mph; Max Wind: 73 mph; Temp: 37°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #12: 23:03:30Z; 18.5°N 77.6°W; PA: 14941 ft; D-Value: 2 ft; Wind: ESE (107°) @ 70 mph; Max Wind: 70 mph; Temp: 35°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #13: 23:04:00Z; 18.5°N 77.6°W; PA: 14052 ft; D-Value: 57 ft; Wind: ESE (105°) @ 70 mph; Max Wind: 71 mph; Temp: 33°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #14: 23:04:30Z; 18.5°N 77.7°W; PA: 13219 ft; D-Value: 177 ft; Wind: ESE (104°) @ 69 mph; Max Wind: 70 mph; Temp: 34°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #15: 23:05:00Z; 18.5°N 77.7°W; PA: 12566 ft; D-Value: 105 ft; Wind: ESE (104°) @ 70 mph; Max Wind: 71 mph; Temp: 33°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #16: 23:05:30Z; 18.5°N 77.8°W; PA: 11795 ft; D-Value: 45 ft; Wind: E (101°) @ 71 mph; Max Wind: 71 mph; Temp: 37°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #17: 23:06:00Z; 18.5°N 77.8°W; PA: 11004 ft; D-Value: -97 ft; Wind: ESE (104°) @ 69 mph; Max Wind: 71 mph; Temp: 37°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #18: 23:06:30Z; 18.5°N 77.8°W; PA: 10246 ft; D-Value: -218 ft; Wind: E (101°) @ 66 mph; Max Wind: 67 mph; Temp: 42°F; Dewpt: 42°F
Ob #19: 23:07:00Z; 18.5°N 77.9°W; PA: 10016 ft; D-Value: -97 ft; Wind: E (98°) @ 62 mph; Max Wind: 63 mph; Temp: 44°F; Dewpt: 42°F
Ob #20: 23:07:30Z; 18.5°N 77.9°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: 78 ft; Wind: E (99°) @ 61 mph; Max Wind: 61 mph; Temp: 44°F; Dewpt: 42°F

Thunder44 · #43 Postby **Thunder44** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 6:15 pm

dhweather wrote:Ladies and Gentlemen, thank you for flying Hurricane Hunter Airlines.
Today's flight takes us just South of Jamacia, into the eye of extremely dangerous category 4 Hurricane Emily. Please make sure your seat bets are buckled tightly and your tray tables are in their upright position and locked. Please stow loose carryon items, as they may endanger another passengers life. Due to the expected severe turbulence, there will be no meal or snack service on this flight. Fortunately, our altitude will
be low enough so oxygen masks will ot be required in the event we lose cabin pressure. At Hurricane Hunter Airlines, we know you have choices when it comes to flying, and we greatly appreciate your business.

I see you are quite a comedian

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #44 Postby **senorpepr** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 6:18 pm

Dropsonde Observation
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 09
Flight ID: AF305 (UL Flight)
Observation Number: 10
Time: 2300Z
Latitude: 23.6°N
Longitude: 89°W
Location: 223 mi NW of Cancun, Mexico
Surface: 1014 mb; Temp: 84°F; Dewpt: 111°F; ESE (110°) @ 15 mph
1000mb height: 420 ft; Temp: 82°F; Dewpt: 102°F; E (100°) @ 17 mph
925mb height: 2677 ft; Temp: 74°F; Dewpt: 135°F; E (100°) @ 16 mph
850mb height: 1808 ft; Temp: 68°F; Dewpt: 138°F; ESE (110°) @ 15 mph
700mb height: 10482 ft; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 138°F; ESE (120°) @ 13 mph
500mb height: 19390 ft; Temp: 43°F; Dewpt: 138°F; ESE (120°) @ 20 mph
400mb height: 25000 ft; Temp: 61°F; Dewpt: 147°F; E (85°) @ 14 mph
SPL 2358N08900W 2306 MBL WND 10515 AEV 20504 DLM WND 11512
014338 WL150 10514 081

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #45 Postby **senorpepr** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 6:19 pm

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 10
Flight ID: AF304
Flt Data Number: 17
Latest Ob Location: 54 mi W of Kingston, Jamaica

Ob #01: 23:08:00Z; 18.5°N 77.9°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 148 ft; Wind: E (98°) @ 61 mph; Max Wind: 62 mph; Temp: 44°F; Dewpt: 42°F
Ob #02: 23:08:30Z; 18.5°N 78°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 142 ft; Wind: E (95°) @ 65 mph; Max Wind: 66 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 42°F
Ob #03: 23:09:00Z; 18.4°N 78°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: 11 ft; Wind: E (94°) @ 66 mph; Max Wind: 67 mph; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: 42°F
Ob #04: 23:09:30Z; 18.4°N 78°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: -202 ft; Wind: E (94°) @ 68 mph; Max Wind: 69 mph; Temp: 43°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #05: 23:10:00Z; 18.4°N 78.1°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: -187 ft; Wind: E (95°) @ 68 mph; Max Wind: 69 mph; Temp: 44°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #06: 23:10:30Z; 18.4°N 78.1°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: -164 ft; Wind: E (92°) @ 67 mph; Max Wind: 69 mph; Temp: 43°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #07: 23:11:00Z; 18.3°N 78.1°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 40 ft; Wind: E (94°) @ 74 mph; Max Wind: 76 mph; Temp: 42°F; Dewpt: 44°F
Ob #08: 23:11:30Z; 18.3°N 78.1°W; PA: 9987 ft; D-Value: 94 ft; Wind: E (88°) @ 70 mph; Max Wind: 73 mph; Temp: 42°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #09: 23:12:00Z; 18.3°N 78.2°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 117 ft; Wind: E (90°) @ 73 mph; Max Wind: 74 mph; Temp: 44°F; Dewpt: 44°F
Ob #10: 23:12:30Z; 18.3°N 78.2°W; PA: 9984 ft; D-Value: 121 ft; Wind: E (89°) @ 70 mph; Max Wind: 70 mph; Temp: 41°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #11: 23:13:00Z; 18.3°N 78.2°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 115 ft; Wind: E (86°) @ 73 mph; Max Wind: 74 mph; Temp: 39°F; Dewpt: 44°F
Ob #12: 23:13:30Z; 18.2°N 78.2°W; PA: 9987 ft; D-Value: 115 ft; Wind: E (91°) @ 73 mph; Max Wind: 74 mph; Temp: 38°F; Dewpt: 44°F
Ob #13: 23:14:00Z; 18.2°N 78.3°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 128 ft; Wind: E (99°) @ 68 mph; Max Wind: 75 mph; Temp: 41°F; Dewpt: 44°F
Ob #14: 23:14:30Z; 18.2°N 78.3°W; PA: 9987 ft; D-Value: 130 ft; Wind: ESE (111°) @ 60 mph; Max Wind: 63 mph; Temp: 42°F; Dewpt: 42°F
Ob #15: 23:15:00Z; 18.2°N 78.3°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 132 ft; Wind: ESE (114°) @ 51 mph; Max Wind: 54 mph; Temp: 41°F; Dewpt: 40°F
Ob #16: 23:15:30Z; 18.1°N 78.3°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: 133 ft; Wind: ESE (120°) @ 56 mph; Max Wind: 58 mph; Temp: 41°F; Dewpt: 41°F
Ob #17: 23:16:00Z; 18.1°N 78.4°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: 131 ft; Wind: SE (129°) @ 56 mph; Max Wind: 58 mph; Temp: 43°F; Dewpt: 41°F
Ob #18: 23:16:30Z; 18.1°N 78.4°W; PA: 10010 ft; D-Value: 130 ft; Wind: ESE (122°) @ 54 mph; Max Wind: 56 mph; Temp: 42°F; Dewpt: 41°F
Ob #19: 23:17:00Z; 18.1°N 78.4°W; PA: 9987 ft; D-Value: 132 ft; Wind: ESE (119°) @ 59 mph; Max Wind: 62 mph; Temp: 42°F; Dewpt: 42°F
Ob #20: 23:17:30Z; 18°N 78.4°W; PA: 9987 ft; D-Value: 131 ft; Wind: ESE (120°) @ 53 mph; Max Wind: 58 mph; Temp: 43°F; Dewpt: 41°F

...Okay, they just crossed the western tip of Jamaica. They are now in their inbound leg toward the NE quad.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #46 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 6:21 pm

I like to make a guest on the recon before head...To see how right or wrong I'm...

1# They will find 155 to 158 knots flight level winds...Maybe 160???

2# They might find that the pressure is down 10 milibars...Remember maybe more.

This is just a guest by the satellite over the last few hours...I'm waiting for recon to confirm my thinking or disprove it.

Ola · #47 Postby **Ola** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 6:22 pm

dhweather wrote:Ladies and Gentlemen, thank you for flying Hurricane Hunter Airlines.
Today's flight takes us just South of Jamacia, into the eye of extremely dangerous category 4 Hurricane Emily. Please make sure your seat bets are buckled tightly and your tray tables are in their upright position and locked. Please stow loose carryon items, as they may endanger another passengers life. Due to the expected severe turbulence, there will be no meal or snack service on this flight. Fortunately, our altitude will
be low enough so oxygen masks will ot be required in the event we lose cabin pressure. At Hurricane Hunter Airlines, we know you have choices when it comes to flying, and we greatly appreciate your business.

Should have said:

Please make sure your seat bets are buckled tightly and your tray tables are in their upright position and locked, AND MAKE SURE YOU HAVE YOUR ROLL OF TOILET PAPER WITHIN REACH

Valkhorn · #48 Postby **Valkhorn** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 6:24 pm

I like to make a guest on the recon before head...To see how right or wrong I'm...

1# They will find 155 to 158 knots flight level winds...Maybe 160???

2# They might find that the pressure is down 10 milibars...Remember maybe more.

This is just a guest by the satellite over the last few hours...I'm waiting for recon to confirm my thinking or disprove it.

I agree about the pressure drop. The eye has really cleared out, the convection has increased, which would only mean theres even MORE sinking air into that thing - i.e. a lower pressure.

Based on the clearance of the eye, and the fact that I'm quite positive that the pressure has not risen it's probably 5-10 mb lower, too.

And I wouldn't be surprised if we find something lower than 930, or even something around 925mb.

clfenwi · #49 Postby **clfenwi** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 6:25 pm

I won't venture a wind guess, but I will guess a pressure of 928 mb...

canegrl04 · #50 Postby **canegrl04** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 6:28 pm

The lowest Dennis ever got was 931mb. If Emily beats that,she is one helluva hurricane right now :eek:

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #51 Postby **senorpepr** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 6:29 pm

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 10
Flight ID: AF304
Flt Data Number: 18
Latest Ob Location: 31 mi SW of Kingston, Jamaica

Ob #01: 23:18:00Z; 18°N 78.4°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 129 ft; Wind: ESE (120°) @ 53 mph; Max Wind: 56 mph; Temp: 42°F; Dewpt: 41°F
Ob #02: 23:18:30Z; 18°N 78.5°W; PA: 9984 ft; D-Value: 131 ft; Wind: SE (124°) @ 59 mph; Max Wind: 62 mph; Temp: 43°F; Dewpt: 42°F
Ob #03: 23:19:00Z; 18°N 78.5°W; PA: 10036 ft; D-Value: 133 ft; Wind: ESE (113°) @ 52 mph; Max Wind: 54 mph; Temp: 44°F; Dewpt: 40°F
Ob #04: 23:19:30Z; 18°N 78.5°W; PA: 9951 ft; D-Value: 134 ft; Wind: ESE (113°) @ 66 mph; Max Wind: 67 mph; Temp: 43°F; Dewpt: 42°F
Ob #05: 23:20:00Z; 17.9°N 78.5°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 133 ft; Wind: ESE (115°) @ 66 mph; Max Wind: 67 mph; Temp: 42°F; Dewpt: 42°F
Ob #06: 23:20:30Z; 17.9°N 78.6°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 131 ft; Wind: ESE (122°) @ 59 mph; Max Wind: 61 mph; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: 42°F
Ob #07: 23:21:00Z; 17.9°N 78.6°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 129 ft; Wind: ESE (121°) @ 56 mph; Max Wind: 56 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 41°F
Ob #08: 23:21:30Z; 17.9°N 78.6°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 127 ft; Wind: ESE (123°) @ 56 mph; Max Wind: 56 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 41°F
Ob #09: 23:22:00Z; 17.8°N 78.6°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 126 ft; Wind: ESE (123°) @ 60 mph; Max Wind: 65 mph; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: 42°F
Ob #10: 23:22:30Z; 17.8°N 78.6°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 124 ft; Wind: ESE (122°) @ 67 mph; Max Wind: 69 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #11: 23:23:00Z; 17.8°N 78.7°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: 123 ft; Wind: ESE (118°) @ 61 mph; Max Wind: 62 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 42°F
Ob #12: 23:23:30Z; 17.8°N 78.7°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 122 ft; Wind: ESE (119°) @ 61 mph; Max Wind: 62 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 42°F
Ob #13: 23:24:00Z; 17.8°N 78.7°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 119 ft; Wind: ESE (120°) @ 63 mph; Max Wind: 65 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 42°F
Ob #14: 23:24:30Z; 17.7°N 78.7°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: 115 ft; Wind: ESE (119°) @ 67 mph; Max Wind: 69 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #15: 23:25:00Z; 17.7°N 78.8°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: 113 ft; Wind: ESE (120°) @ 70 mph; Max Wind: 71 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #16: 23:25:30Z; 17.7°N 78.8°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 111 ft; Wind: ESE (121°) @ 71 mph; Max Wind: 71 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #17: 23:26:00Z; 17.7°N 78.8°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 107 ft; Wind: ESE (120°) @ 74 mph; Max Wind: 76 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 44°F
Ob #18: 23:26:30Z; 17.6°N 78.8°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 103 ft; Wind: ESE (121°) @ 77 mph; Max Wind: 77 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 44°F
Ob #19: 23:27:00Z; 17.6°N 78.8°W; PA: 9987 ft; D-Value: 100 ft; Wind: ESE (121°) @ 76 mph; Max Wind: 77 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 44°F
Ob #20: 23:27:30Z; 17.6°N 78.9°W; PA: 10013 ft; D-Value: 96 ft; Wind: ESE (121°) @ 76 mph; Max Wind: 78 mph; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: 44°F

Valkhorn · #52 Postby **Valkhorn** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 6:29 pm

They're getting close.

How much time until we get the first eye dropsonde?

DoctorHurricane2003 · #53 Postby **DoctorHurricane2003** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 6:31 pm

Dennis got to 930, actually.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #54 Postby **senorpepr** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 6:33 pm

Valkhorn wrote:They're getting close.

How much time until we get the first eye dropsonde?

They are heading in right now. Give it 15-30 minutes...

Andy_L · #55 Postby **Andy_L** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 6:34 pm

if its the latter they won't make the 8pm advisory

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #56 Postby **senorpepr** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 6:35 pm

Andy_L wrote:if its the latter they won't make the 8pm advisory

It will make the advisory. Remember, NHC receives the data near realtime. We have to wait a little bit for a QCed version.

jkt21787 · #57 Postby **jkt21787** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 6:35 pm

Andy_L wrote:if its the latter they won't make the 8pm advisory

If it doesn't make it by the 8 pm advisory and they find a cat 5 shortly thereafter, they will issue a special update I'm sure.

Website · #58 Postby **Brent** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 6:36 pm

Andy_L wrote:if its the latter they won't make the 8pm advisory

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #59 Postby **senorpepr** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 6:36 pm

RECCO Observation
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 10
Flight ID: AF304
Observation Number: 05
Time: 2316Z
Latitude: 18.1°N
Longitude: 78.4°W
Location: 107 mi W of Kingston, Jamaica
Turbulence: Moderate, occasional Severe
Flight condition: In cloud
Pressure Altitude: 10000 feet
Flight level wind: ESE (120°) @ 51 mph
Temperature: 43°F
Dewpoint: 43°F
Weather: Thunderstorm
700mb height: 10300 feet
Surface Wind: N/A
Remarks: None

...Inbound NE quad ob...

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #60 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 6:36 pm

senorpepr wrote:RECCO Observation
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 10
Flight ID: AF304
Observation Number: 05
Time: 2316Z
Latitude: 18.1°N
Longitude: 78.4°W
Location: 107 mi W of Kingston, Jamaica
Turbulence: Occasional Severe
Flight condition: In cloud
Pressure Altitude: 10000 feet
Flight level wind: ESE (120°) @ 51 mph
Temperature: 43°F
Dewpoint: 43°F
Weather: Thunderstorm
700mb height: 10300 feet
Surface Wind: N/A
Remarks: None

...Inbound NE quad ob...

When that happen you know its getting stronger/bombing...The eye is tighting. Whiling to take a guest?

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