TS Katrina,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Stormcenter]

I just looked and is moving NW

Or even NNW, I don't see my original call of WPB as a very likely scenerio, I'm beginning to doubt a FL landfall all together.

So what you are saying is that it's going up the east coast or out to sea and miss FL. because that's the only way it will. I don't see that happening at the moment.

[dwg71]

I just looked and is moving NW

Or even NNW, I don't see my original call of WPB as a very likely scenerio, I'm beginning to doubt a FL landfall all together.

Why you say that? They have it going there and across Fla. But We will see what the day brings

I believe there is a weakness in the ridge, near 30N 78W. Time will tell. Its already well north and east of forecast track.

[storms in NC]

I just looked and is moving NW

Or even NNW, I don't see my original call of WPB as a very likely scenerio, I'm beginning to doubt a FL landfall all together.

So what you are saying is that it's going up the east coast or out to sea and miss FL. because that's the only way it will. I don't see that happening at the moment.

I didn't say that. I just said it was moving NW at this time. As far as land fall it will be in Fla. NHC said it is to turn back to the west.

But Now the farther to the north it gos it will miss the most souther part of Fla.

[mvtrucking]

Looks like the center of circulation is showing up on Miami long range dopplar. Take a look...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kamx.shtml

Looking at that, it looks as if the precip is moving just N of due west?

[x-y-no]

At that range, radar isn't a very reliable guide. We're looking at upper troposphere that far out.

[clfenwi]

I read a thread last night that Recon would be doing a synopsis drop of the atmosphere today. Does anyone know if that is still a go, and if so...When can we expect that data to be pumped into the models and run?

Just would like to know, I think once this happens we'll get a more accurate understanding just how strong the weakness in the ridge is or isn't...

and then....sigh................the models will shift.....

The flight is still a go. Data will go into the 00Z global models.

[mahicks]

I read a thread last night that Recon would be doing a synopsis drop of the atmosphere today. Does anyone know if that is still a go, and if so...When can we expect that data to be pumped into the models and run?

Just would like to know, I think once this happens we'll get a more accurate understanding just how strong the weakness in the ridge is or isn't...

and then....sigh................the models will shift.....

The flight is still a go. Data will go into the 00Z global models.

Thanks CL!!

I should have known that it would be You that replied to my post.
I am quickly labeling you "the model man"

[JPmia]

Yeah, I am not sure we can make heading judgements yet based on radar...give it some more time to get closer to the area. X-Y what are your thoughts about this possibly becoming a Cat. 1 Hurricane before landfall?

[deltadog03]

she is looking better....she is fanning out somewhat....the center is south of the north convection...don't let that fool you

[SunnyThoughts]

Holding good thoughts for those of you in South Fla, stay safe..while frantically trying to erase this giant tropical bullseye target that has set up on top of us here in the panhandle.

[tw861]

Well looking at this:

http://bahamasweather.org.bs/satelliter ... dar/local/

You would certainly get the impression that the center is ENE of Nassau. I'm thinking maybe this is the MLC because surface reports at Nassau would still support the LLC being south of them.

[tw861]

she is looking better....she is fanning out somewhat....the center is south of the north convection...don't let that fool you

That's exactly what I thought but when I looked at the Nassau radar, it certainly gives you a different impression. Check it out from the link above, but give it a couple of minutes to load.

I'm starting to think thats a mid level circulation in the heavier convection to the NE.

[tw861]

That possible spin is also starting to show on the MIA radar.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kamx.shtml

Look ENE of New Providence IS. If that is a MLC in looks like it MIGHT be moving WNW.

[deltadog03]

your right that might be a MLC....and that is showing up on long range radar...and pushing almost W...but, still WNW...i think nhc mentioned that this may take over possibly??

[dwg71]

your right that might be a MLC....and that is showing up on long range radar...and pushing almost W...but, still WNW...i think nhc mentioned that this may take over possibly??

If the center has in fact relocated to the North, (which appears to have already happend), Katrina would have to begin heading due west shortly to make NHC's landfall point. Its always interesting...

[deltadog03]

Yeah, I agree with ya...interesting indeed...but, if that LLC is further north..where the big convection is right now, then that is starting to round the bend...like wnw or nearly west...jmho

[SouthFloridawx]

do you think it is moving more westerly than north now?

[deltadog03]

do you think it is moving more westerly than north now?

yes, I do...I think the LLC might relocate to the deep convection on the north side...nhc made mention to this...and IF** that happens then that is moving generally to the W or WNW

[SouthFloridawx]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kamx.shtml[/img]

[storms in NC]

It is still moving NW the turn to the west hasn't happen yet. But maybe by tonight it will