Atlantic Basin Shear Discussion, Shear Charts, Q&As, Etc

[tornadochaser86]

yup but what does shear have to do with the storm cant it overcome that? someone please answer me

[MiamiensisWx]

yup but what does shear have to do with the storm cant it overcome that? someone please answer me

Shear affects a storm's cloud pattern. Strong shear ay often cause the cloud pattern to become disorganized. That is why storms generally need a more favorable environment with less shear.

[MiamiensisWx]

*UPDATE*

There is currently 30KT to 40KT and increasing shear over Florida and the Bahamas.

Here are the latest shear charts...

[artist]

but according to the TWO seems they think winds will be more conducive in the next few days. And if it meanders where the shear is decreasing until then we may have a problem on our hands -

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
ABNT20 KNHC 021517
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SUN OCT 2 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM STAN...LOCATED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ABOUT 50 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF TULUM MEXICO. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED
ITS LAST ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN...WHICH WAS
DISSIPATING ABOUT 780 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A
WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...IS CENTERED
A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. ALTHOUGH
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT...THEY COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD.
ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Anonymous]

Thats the same thing they said for the messes that began Katrina and Rita.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Well that's just great, now isn't it?

[WeatherEmperor]

If this happens a third time(Katrina, Rita the first 2) then Im gonna pop. Im really gonna watch this.

<RICKY>

[skysummit]

If this happens a third time(Katrina, Rita the first 2) then Im gonna pop. Im really gonna watch this.

<RICKY>

LOL I read your post too fast. I thought you said you were gonna "poop". LOL

[WeatherEmperor]

Well I could do that too, but thats a discussion for another day

<RICKY>

[MiamiensisWx]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

*BUMP*

Shear is fluctuating around INVEST.92L... it is increasing to the east and in the eastern part of the system, is decreasing to the west just in front of the system, but is increasing further west and is starting to spread eastward over Florida into the western Bahamas. This may affect INVEST.92L's organization and intensity.

Since this thread is important but keeps falling behind to the second or third thread pages, I think it would be really wise to make this a sticky! Maybe the moderators can do that...

[tornadochaser86]

Ok what exactly is so important about shear it doesnt affect a hurricane hurricanes form only how warm the water is wind has nothing to do with this its only important in thunderstorms

[tornadochaser86]

Ok what exactly is so important about shear it doesnt affect a hurricane hurricanes form only how warm the water is wind has nothing to do with this its only important in thunderstorms

[tornadochaser86]

Ok what exactly is so important about shear it doesnt affect a hurricane hurricanes form only how warm the water is wind has nothing to do with this its only important in thunderstorms

[curtadams]

A hurricane is composed of thunderstorms - basically a ring of thunderstorms. Shear stretches the thunderstorms out so their top isn't above their bottom and the pressure drop due to activity at the top doesn't draw air into the bottom. The thunderstorm is less self-fueling. There's a similar effect on the hurricane as a whole. Basically strong shear means a hurricane's activity no longer fuels itself so it burns out quickly.

[krysof]

bump, looks like the shear is lessening around and in Florida, extending into the eastern gulf

[MiamiensisWx]

*BUMP*

[MiamiensisWx]

*BUMP*

Shear is increasing in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, in the eastern Bahamas and in much of the central Atlantic. The strong front that has shear with it is moving across the central U.S. into the eastern U.S. There is only a small area of decreasing shear in the western Bahamas and eastern Florida between areas of increasing shear.

Here are the latest shear charts...

SHEAR TRENDS CURRENTLY:


CURRENT AMOUNTS OF SHEAR:


INTENSIFICATION POTENTIAL FOR SYSTEMS FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS CURRENTLY:

[krysof]

bump, I noticed that wave near 10 n has a good shot at development

[artist]

latest shear tendency -




current upper level-


current mid level -



current visible winds -

[tornadochaser86]

may try to develop but very strong shear aroud the area right now