Hurricane Jova at CPAC

[cycloneye]

Wasn't Iniki the last storm to hit Hawaii?

[mtm4319]

Jova is an unusual name. What's the language of origin?

It's a Hispanic name meaning majestic.

And it's also Jay-Z's alter ego.

[gilbert88]

I've only known very old women called Jova. The name's extremely rare now.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU SEP 15 2005

LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN JOVA'S STRUCTURE HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN
THE PAST FEW HOURS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF A CLUSTER OF STRONG
CONVECTION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS RANGE FROM T3.0...45 KT...FROM
TAFB AND T2.5...35 KT...FROM SAB AND AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SET AT 40 KT...WHICH AGREES WITH HIGH-RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT DATA FROM
0230Z WHICH SHOWED A FEW 40 KT WIND VECTORS NEAR THE CENTER.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING FOR THE
NEXT 48-72 HOURS. THE GFDL REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND BRINGS
JOVA UP TO 93 KT IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...WHILE THE SHIPS AND FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE TAKE THE CYCLONE TO NEAR 65 KT IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND FOLLOWS THE MORE CONSERVATIVE SHIPS IN PEAKING JOVA AT 65 KT AT
48 AND 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OVER
COOLER WATER WITH ALL GUIDANCE INDICATING SLOW WEAKENING. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL WEAKEN JOVA TO 50 KT BY 120 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A STEADY 270/10. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE WITH
THE SAME GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WHICH INDICATES DEEP-LAYER
RIDGING NORTH OF THE CYCLONE THROUGH ABOUT 72 HRS...TAKING THE
SYSTEM ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK. THE GFS MODEL REMAINS AS A
SOUTHERN OUTLIER...BUT IS CLOSER TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE MODELS FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN IS
FOR A SLOWER MOTION IN THE 72-120 HOUR TIME FRAME...AS JOVA SHOULD
BEGIN TO TURN WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A
WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN IS A BIT
SLOWER IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST...BUT FASTER THAN THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECASTER MOLLEDA/AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0900Z 13.7N 129.1W 40 KT
12HR VT 15/1800Z 13.7N 130.7W 45 KT
24HR VT 16/0600Z 13.6N 133.1W 50 KT
36HR VT 16/1800Z 13.6N 135.5W 60 KT
48HR VT 17/0600Z 13.6N 137.7W 65 KT
72HR VT 18/0600Z 14.0N 141.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 19/0600Z 15.0N 144.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 20/0600Z 16.5N 146.5W 55 KT

[senorpepr]

Wasn't Iniki the last storm to hit Hawaii?

That depends on your definition of "storm" and "hit".

Since Iniki (92)...

Eugene(93) hit the Big Island of Hawai'i as a tropical depression.
Daniel(00) skirted the state to the northeast as a tropical storm, but spread gusty winds and rains over the state.
Barbara(01) skirted the state to the northeast as a tropical depression, but spread gusty winds and rains over the state. It missed a landfall on the north shores of Kaua'i by less than 50mi.
Jimena(03) skirted the state to the south as a category one hurricane, but spread gusty winds and rains over the easternmost islands.

[cycloneye]

TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU SEP 15 2005

THE CENTER OF JOVA IS A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...EVEN WITH
MICROWAVE IMAGERY...AND THIS MAKES THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
UNCERTAIN AS WELL. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45
AND 35 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN
40 KT AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO VALUES. JOVA REMAINS A
SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH NO DEEP BANDING AND A SMALL BUT
EXPANDING REA OF DEEP CONVECTION ON THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST SIDE OF
THE PRESUMED CENTER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SOME EASTERLY
SHEAR AND A LIMITED OUTFLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR SHOULD
NOT BE PROHIBITIVE AND THE WATERS WILL BE WARM FOR THE NEXT 3-4
DAYS...SO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. NEITHER THE SHIPS NOR
THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE BRING JOVA TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE EXPERIENCING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/10. JOVA IS SOUTH OF A STRONG
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...AND HENCE A BASIC WESTERLY TRACK IS EXPECTED.
AFTER 72 HOURS...MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD SLOW AND BEND THE TRACK TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE EARLIER TREND
OF A SLOWER MOTION...ESPECIALLY LATE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. HOWEVER...IT IS STILL A LITTLE FASTER THAN
THE GUIDANCE AND FURTHER SUCH ADJUSTMENTS ARE LIKELY LATER ON.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/1500Z 13.8N 130.1W 40 KT
12HR VT 16/0000Z 13.6N 131.7W 45 KT
24HR VT 16/1200Z 13.4N 133.9W 50 KT
36HR VT 17/0000Z 13.2N 135.9W 55 KT
48HR VT 17/1200Z 13.2N 137.8W 60 KT
72HR VT 18/1200Z 14.0N 140.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 19/1200Z 15.0N 142.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 20/1200Z 16.5N 145.0W 55 KT

[cycloneye]

WTPZ25 KNHC 152038
TCMEP5
TROPICAL STORM JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102005
2100Z THU SEP 15 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 132.1W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 132.1W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 131.5W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 12.8N 133.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 12.6N 135.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 12.5N 137.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 12.7N 139.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 13.5N 142.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 14.5N 144.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 15.5N 146.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 132.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU SEP 15 2005

JOVA HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST 24 HR...WITH AN INCREASE IN
CENTRAL CONVECTION AND A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED OUTER BAND OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE CONVECTION HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WHICH IS LIKELY A DIURNAL
DECREASE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND
SAB...AND 45 KT FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO
55 KT.

JOVA IS MOVING TO THE LEFT AND FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY...260/13. A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NORTH OF THE STORM SHOULD FORCE A CONTINUED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION FOR 36-48 HR. AFTER THAT...A
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE...CAUSING A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED. MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED FOR THE FIRST 72 HR...BUT THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN SPEED
AFTER THAT TIME. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS FASTER. IT IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE CONSENSUS MODELS GUNS...GUNA...AND CONU.

JOVA IS OVER 28C WATER AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS CURRENTLY LIGHT.
THUS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD STEADILY INTENSIFY FOR 48-72 HR. THE GFDN
BRING THE STORM TO 121 KT IN 72 HR...WHILE THE GFDL CALLS FOR 90 KT
IN 48 HR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BE MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN
THIS...CALLING FOR 80 KT IN 72 HR...WHICH IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN
THE SHIPS FORECAST. AFTER 72 HR...JOVA SHOULD ENCOUNTER COOLER
WATERS AND INCREASING SHEAR AND SHOULD WEAKEN. THE NOGAPS AND GFS
SUGGEST THE STORM MAY ENCOUNTER STRONGER SHEAR THAN INDICATED IN
THE SHIPS MODEL...AND IF THAT HAPPENS JOVA COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/2100Z 13.0N 132.1W 55 KT
12HR VT 16/0600Z 12.8N 133.9W 60 KT
24HR VT 16/1800Z 12.6N 135.8W 65 KT
36HR VT 17/0600Z 12.5N 137.7W 70 KT
48HR VT 17/1800Z 12.7N 139.4W 75 KT
72HR VT 18/1800Z 13.5N 142.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 19/1800Z 14.5N 144.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 20/1800Z 15.5N 146.0W 60 KT

[cycloneye]

WTPZ25 KNHC 160233
TCMEP5
TROPICAL STORM JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102005
0300Z FRI SEP 16 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 133.4W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 133.4W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 132.7W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 12.8N 134.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 12.6N 137.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 12.7N 138.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 13.0N 140.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 14.0N 143.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 15.0N 145.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 16.0N 147.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N 133.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH

[cycloneye]

WTPZ45 KNHC 160259
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU SEP 15 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC...SMALL TROPICAL
CYCLONE ABOUT 100 NM IN DIAMETER WITH INCREASING DEEP CONVECTION
AND COLDER CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AS WELL AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS...CALLING FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE
THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTERWARD...JOVA SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS...AND INTO A LESS FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. SHIPS ALSO SUGGESTS A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN SHEAR BEYOND 72 HOURS.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 265/12. A STRONG MID- LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FROM NORTHERN
MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTERWARDS... THE RIDGE
SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC LOW NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS
SHOULD CAUSE JOVA TO SLOW AND MOVE MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
BASICALLY A CARBON COPY OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND AGREES WITH THE
THE CONSENSUS MODELS GUNA...AND CONU.


FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0300Z 12.9N 133.4W 55 KT
12HR VT 16/1200Z 12.8N 134.9W 60 KT
24HR VT 17/0000Z 12.6N 137.0W 65 KT
36HR VT 17/1200Z 12.7N 138.9W 70 KT
48HR VT 18/0000Z 13.0N 140.5W 75 KT
72HR VT 19/0000Z 14.0N 143.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 20/0000Z 15.0N 145.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 21/0000Z 16.0N 147.0W 60 KT

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 160850
TCDEP5
HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI SEP 16 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES PERSISTENT STRONG CONVECTION WITH VERY
COLD CLOUD TOPS WITHIN A RELATIVELY SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.
DESPITE THE SMALL SIZE OF THE CYCLONE...DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM
TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO T4.5 AND T4.0 RESPECTIVELY...WHILE
AFWA REMAINS STEADY AT T4.0. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 65 KT...MAKING JOVA THE FIFTH HURRICANE
OF THE 2005 SEASON. JOVA REMAINS IN A LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM SST
ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SUPPORTS FURTHER STRENGTHENING FOR ABOUT THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SHIPS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT INCREASING EASTERLY
SHEAR IN THE 24-48 HOUR TIME FRAME WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN JOVA...
WHILE THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE GFDL STRENGTHEN THE CYCLONE TO
82 KT AND 102 KT RESPECTIVELY IN 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
WILL LEAN TOWARD SHIPS AND TAKE THE SYSTEM TO 75 KT IN 24-48 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...JOVA SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER
SSTS. SHIPS GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES A LESS-FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BRING THE INTENSITY DOWN TO
60 KT BY 120 HOURS.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 265/11. A STRONG DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE
EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FROM NORTHERN
MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. AFTERWARDS...THE RIDGE
SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC LOW NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS
SHOULD CAUSE JOVA TO SLOW AND TURN MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. TRACK
GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS...THEN
DIVERGES IN THE 72-120 HOUR TIME FRAME...WITH NOGAPS MUCH FASTER
AND THE GFS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE
OFFICAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSEST TO THE
GFDL AND CONSENSUS MODELS...PARTICULARLY AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND.

FORECASTER MOLLEDA/FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0900Z 13.0N 134.3W 65 KT
12HR VT 16/1800Z 12.8N 136.0W 70 KT
24HR VT 17/0600Z 12.7N 138.2W 75 KT
36HR VT 17/1800Z 13.0N 140.0W 75 KT
48HR VT 18/0600Z 13.5N 141.3W 75 KT
72HR VT 19/0600Z 14.5N 143.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 20/0600Z 15.5N 145.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 21/0600Z 16.5N 147.5W 60 KT

[cycloneye]

WTPZ45 KNHC 161458
TCDEP5
HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI SEP 16 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT JOVA REMAINS A COMPACT
STORM...WITH A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND TOPS TO -80C NEAR
OR SOUTH OF THE CENTER. A RECENT AMSU OVERPASS SUGGESTS AN EYE IS
PRESENT UNDER THE OVERCAST. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77
KT FROM TAFB...AND 65 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS INCREASED TO 70 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 260/9...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN EARLIER. THERE
IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. JOVA SHOULD CONTINUE WESTWARD OR
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE FOR 48
HR OR SO...THEN TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTH-NORTHEAST OF HAWAII. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
IS FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON THE TRACK...BUT THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN SPEED AFTER 72 HR...MOST NOTABLY BETWEEN THE FASTER
NOGAPS AND THE SLOWER GFS AND GFDL. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS
BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

JOVA REMAINS OVER 28C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE VERTICAL
SHEAR IS LIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLLOW CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION FOR
AT LEAST 24-36 HR...AND IT IS POSSIBLE JOVA COULD GET STRONGER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. AFTER 36 HR...THE SSTS GRADUALLY BEGIN COOLING
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE
SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 72 HR.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/1500Z 12.8N 135.0W 70 KT
12HR VT 17/0000Z 12.7N 136.7W 75 KT
24HR VT 17/1200Z 12.8N 138.7W 80 KT
36HR VT 18/0000Z 13.1N 140.3W 80 KT
48HR VT 18/1200Z 13.5N 141.5W 75 KT
72HR VT 19/1200Z 14.5N 143.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 20/1200Z 15.5N 146.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 21/1200Z 17.0N 148.0W 60 KT

[Derek Ortt]

Jova seems more similar to Fernanda in 1993 than Iniki a year earlier

[cycloneye]

170236
TCMEP5
HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102005
0300Z SAT SEP 17 2005

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 136.9W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT.......110NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..125NE 90SE 90SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 136.9W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 136.4W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 12.3N 138.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 55NE 40SE 40SW 55NW.
34 KT...115NE 90SE 90SW 115NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 12.6N 139.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 55NE 40SE 40SW 55NW.
34 KT...115NE 90SE 90SW 115NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 13.1N 141.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 55NE 40SE 40SW 55NW.
34 KT...115NE 90SE 90SW 115NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 13.7N 142.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 55NE 40SE 40SW 55NW.
34 KT...115NE 90SE 90SW 115NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 15.0N 144.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 16.0N 146.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 17.5N 148.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 136.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z

FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART

[cycloneye]

425
WTPZ45 KNHC 170254
TCDEP5
HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI SEP 16 2005

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT AQUA-1 MICROWAVE OVERPASS
DEPICT CONSIDERABLE EXPANSION OF THE OUTER BANDS THIS
EVENING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTH SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER...THE
INNER CORE CONVECTION REMAINS RATHER COMPACT. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND AFWA REMAIN UNCHANGED...AS WELL
AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE WIND RADII OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE SYSTEM HAVE BEEN EXPANDED BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY.
THE WATER IS WARM AND THE SHEAR IS LIGHT ALLOWING FOR FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THE 48 HOUR
PERIOD...THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY DECREASE ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE JOVA TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THE
SHIPS MODEL...GFS...AND THE ECMWF SUGGEST INCREASING UPPER
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLIES APPROACHING THE SYSTEM LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE
AND IS BASICALLY A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 265/8. THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY REMAINS
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A MID- TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER JOVA IN A WESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AFTERWARD...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD REDUCE IN FORWARD
MOTION AND BEND TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A
DEVELOPING MID- TO UPPER- LEVEL LOW NORTH-NORTHEAST OF HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE GUNA AND CONU
CONSENSUS MODELS AND FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK
FORECAST BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER BEYOND DAY 3.

FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0300Z 12.3N 136.9W 75 KT
12HR VT 17/1200Z 12.3N 138.3W 80 KT
24HR VT 18/0000Z 12.6N 139.9W 85 KT
36HR VT 18/1200Z 13.1N 141.3W 85 KT
48HR VT 19/0000Z 13.7N 142.3W 80 KT
72HR VT 20/0000Z 15.0N 144.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 21/0000Z 16.0N 146.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 22/0000Z 17.5N 148.0W 60 KT

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 170907
TCDEP5
HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT SEP 17 2005

A RECENT AMSU-B MICROWAVE OVERPASS SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF AN
IRREGULAR EYE BENEATH THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. OUTER BANDS
REMAIN IMPRESSIVE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS.
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 90 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 77 KT FROM
AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 85 KT.

THE GFDL AND THE SHIPS INDICATE THAT WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR INTENSIFICATION
THROUGH 24 HOURS...POSSIBLY STRONGER THAN FORECAST. THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...JOVA SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS...AND INTO A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
AIR MASS. THE SHIPS MODEL...GFS...AND THE ECMWF ALSO SUGGEST
INCREASING UPPER SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLIES APPROACHING THE SYSTEM LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 265/8. JOVA SHOULD GRADUALLY
MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW OF A
MID- TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS.
THROUGH THE REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
SHOULD REDUCE IN FORWARD MOTION AND TURN TOWARD NORTHWEST
IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF HAWAII. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS...WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY
SLOWER BEYOND DAY 3. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED
PRIMARILY ON THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
TRACK FORECAST.

FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0900Z 12.2N 137.7W 85 KT
12HR VT 17/1800Z 12.4N 138.9W 90 KT
24HR VT 18/0600Z 12.7N 140.1W 90 KT
36HR VT 18/1800Z 13.3N 141.3W 85 KT
48HR VT 19/0600Z 13.9N 142.3W 80 KT
72HR VT 20/0600Z 15.2N 144.2W 70 KT
96HR VT 21/0600Z 16.5N 146.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 22/0600Z 18.0N 148.0W 60 KT

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT SEP 17 2005

AN IMPRESSIVE OUTER BAND CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT WHILE
THE BAND EAST OF THE CENTER HAS EXPANDED AND NOW COVERS THE E
SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 90 KT FROM TAFB AND
SAB...AND 77 KT FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 90
KT.

THE GFDL AND THE SHIPS INDICATE THAT WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION TO 95 KT...CONTINUING THROUGH 36 HOURS...THEREAFTER
JOVA SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS
AND A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC AIR MASS. ADDITIONALLY THE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 265/8. JOVA SHOULD GRADUALLY
MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW OF A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS.
THROUGH THE REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
SHOULD REDUCE IN FORWARD MOTION AND TURN TOWARD NORTHWEST
IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY
LOCATED 660 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF HAWAII. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED
PRIMARILY ON THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL AND IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST.

FORECASTER NELSON/BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/1500Z 12.3N 138.3W 90 KT
12HR VT 18/0000Z 12.4N 139.0W 95 KT
24HR VT 18/1200Z 12.9N 140.6W 95 KT
36HR VT 19/0000Z 13.4N 141.7W 95 KT
48HR VT 19/1200Z 14.1N 142.9W 90 KT
72HR VT 20/1200Z 15.3N 144.6W 80 KT
96HR VT 21/1200Z 16.5N 146.3W 65 KT
120HR VT 22/1200Z 18.4N 148.3W 65 KT

[cycloneye]

766
WTPZ25 KNHC 172037
TCMEP5
HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102005
2100Z SAT SEP 17 2005

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 139.4W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 120SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 139.4W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 139.1W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 12.7N 140.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 13.2N 141.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 13.9N 142.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...115NE 115SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 14.6N 143.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 16.0N 146.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 17.3N 147.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 19.0N 149.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 139.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

FORECASTER NELSON/BEVEN

[cycloneye]

WTPZ45 KNHC 180248
TCDEP5
HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT SEP 17 2005

A 2228Z TRMM OVERPASS DEPICTED A VERY SMALL...ROUND EYE WITH DEEP
CENTRAL CORE CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST QUADRANTS. ALTHOUGH
THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT OUTFLOW OVER THE
ENTIRE SYSTEM...RAINBANDS OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE HAVE WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY. DRY AIR COULD POSSIBLY
BE ENTRAINING FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE MID- LEVELS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 90 KT. INTENSITY MODELS ALL SUGGEST
THAT JOVA HAS PEAKED AND SHOULD MAINTAIN CURRENT INTENSITY...WITH
SOME POSSIBLE FLUCTUATIONS...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AFTERWARD...THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO COOLER WATERS
AND A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC AIR MASS. BY DAY 4...UPPER
SOUTHWESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND...SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/9. JOVA SHOULD GRADUALLY
MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW OF A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS...
THEN CONTINUE NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...
BASED PRIMARILY ON THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL...IS SIMILAR TO THAT
FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/0300Z 13.0N 139.6W 90 KT
12HR VT 18/1200Z 13.4N 140.4W 90 KT
24HR VT 19/0000Z 14.0N 141.4W 90 KT
36HR VT 19/1200Z 14.5N 142.5W 85 KT
48HR VT 20/0000Z 15.0N 143.7W 80 KT
72HR VT 21/0000Z 16.0N 145.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 22/0000Z 17.5N 147.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 23/0000Z 20.5N 148.5W 60 KT

[cycloneye]

WTPZ45 KNHC 180248
TCDEP5
HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT SEP 17 2005

A 2228Z TRMM OVERPASS DEPICTED A VERY SMALL...ROUND EYE WITH DEEP
CENTRAL CORE CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST QUADRANTS. ALTHOUGH
THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT OUTFLOW OVER THE
ENTIRE SYSTEM...RAINBANDS OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE HAVE WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY. DRY AIR COULD POSSIBLY
BE ENTRAINING FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE MID- LEVELS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 90 KT. INTENSITY MODELS ALL SUGGEST
THAT JOVA HAS PEAKED AND SHOULD MAINTAIN CURRENT INTENSITY...WITH
SOME POSSIBLE FLUCTUATIONS...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AFTERWARD...THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO COOLER WATERS
AND A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC AIR MASS. BY DAY 4...UPPER
SOUTHWESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND...SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/9. JOVA SHOULD GRADUALLY
MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW OF A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS...
THEN CONTINUE NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...
BASED PRIMARILY ON THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL...IS SIMILAR TO THAT
FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/0300Z 13.0N 139.6W 90 KT
12HR VT 18/1200Z 13.4N 140.4W 90 KT
24HR VT 19/0000Z 14.0N 141.4W 90 KT
36HR VT 19/1200Z 14.5N 142.5W 85 KT
48HR VT 20/0000Z 15.0N 143.7W 80 KT
72HR VT 21/0000Z 16.0N 145.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 22/0000Z 17.5N 147.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 23/0000Z 20.5N 148.5W 60 KT