About the NHC

[Downdraft]

I Do believe in the NHC and the work they do! That being said, I live in a vunerable location and never take my eyes off of a system (especially when it is in the gulf). This is not an exact science! TPC and NHC create a forcast and the storm usually makes landfall within their cone. My responsiblity is to prepare. It is their job to make sure I have the information, but it is my job to process the information and react.

WELL SAID! The bottom line and it's something a lot of people don't want to hear anymore is you have to take responsibility for yourself. It's up to each individual to process the information and react accordingly. The shame of it is most people assign blame to cover their own stupidity or incompetence. Lord knows we've seen enough of that lately.

[LSU]

Again, no one in south Louisiana is applauding the NHC for this storm. Yeah, the NHC usually does a pretty good job.

They did a good job for SELA for predicting Katrina, and the LA folk were thankful. They did a good job of warning TX of Rita, but not of LA. All of south LA experienced TS winds, and most experienced hurricane winds. NHC predictions for this were way off. Where were the warnings for SELA for an extremely high tidal surge (Terrebonne and Jefferson parishes in SELA experienced a 10-15ft surge when only a 4-8 was predicted by the NHC?

Say what you will while you're in Texas and Florida, but you will see hardly a person from LA thanking the NHC for their work on Rita.

[wxmann_91]

Again, no one in south Louisiana is applauding the NHC for this storm. Yeah, the NHC usually does a pretty good job.

They did a good job for SELA for predicting Katrina, and the LA folk were thankful. They did a good job of warning TX of Rita, but not of LA. All of south LA experienced TS winds, and most experienced hurricane winds. NHC predictions for this were way off. Where were the warnings for SELA for an extremely high tidal surge (Terrebonne and Jefferson parishes in SELA experienced a 10-15ft surge when only a 4-8 was predicted by the NHC?

Say what you will while you're in Texas and Florida, but you will see hardly a person from LA thanking the NHC for their work on Rita.

I won't join in on the bashing, but I will say that the NHC did predict a 10-15 ft surge in Louisiana:

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

This line was repeated for days before the final landfall. So IMO the media made it look like a Houston storm and totally forgot the Louisiana folks.

[Rainband]

Again, no one in south Louisiana is applauding the NHC for this storm. Yeah, the NHC usually does a pretty good job.

They did a good job for SELA for predicting Katrina, and the LA folk were thankful. They did a good job of warning TX of Rita, but not of LA. All of south LA experienced TS winds, and most experienced hurricane winds. NHC predictions for this were way off. Where were the warnings for SELA for an extremely high tidal surge (Terrebonne and Jefferson parishes in SELA experienced a 10-15ft surge when only a 4-8 was predicted by the NHC?

Say what you will while you're in Texas and Florida, but you will see hardly a person from LA thanking the NHC for their work on Rita.

The CONE!!! Nuff said. Not a line a CONE.

[vbhoutex]

LSU, go ahead and live in your dream world of blame. I think EVERYTHING that can be said about this has been said. BTW, where are all those LA people that agree with you?? I haaven't seen them jumping in here to defend you yet!!!

[weatherSnoop]

It does appear that some choose to "bash" the NHC because the warnings for their area were not part of the media reports. I saw watches and warnings for the LA coast as early as Wed. If you only pay attention to the personalities in the major areas, who is to blame? Honestly! No one.
It is just the media is going to try and grab the market share (it is a business).

I was one of those last year, in the major area receiving the hype. I was paying close attention and recognized that Charley was not going to make it this far up the coast. The media was slow to let go of the TPA area and the storm did take a surprisingly sharp turn. The area that was hit had been under watches and warning longer than the bay area and those did not change.

People need to recognize the difference between danger and hype!

[Shawlau]

Someone give me a numeric comparison of the Dennis forecast and the Rita forecast? What there is no numeric comparison??? You tell me the minds that create these models cant think of a way of numericaly grading their accuracy? I really doubt that. So where are the numerical comparisons of accuracy?

[AJC3]

Someone give me a numeric comparison of the Dennis forecast and the Rita forecast? What there is no numeric comparison??? You tell me the minds that create these models cant think of a way of numericaly grading their accuracy? I really doubt that. So where are the numerical comparisons of accuracy?

NHC routinely compares the accuracy of both their position and intensity forecasts for 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 hours. When the final storm reports are issued for both of these TCs, you'll see the errors.

This may answer some of your questions.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/

[arkess7]

It does appear that some choose to "bash" the NHC because the warnings for their area were not part of the media reports. I saw watches and warnings for the LA coast as early as Wed. If you only pay attention to the personalities in the major areas, who is to blame? Honestly! No one.
It is just the media is going to try and grab the market share (it is a business).

I was one of those last year, in the major area receiving the hype. I was paying close attention and recognized that Charley was not going to make it this far up the coast. The media was slow to let go of the TPA area and the storm did take a surprisingly sharp turn. The area that was hit had been under watches and warning longer than the bay area and those did not change.

I totally agree....
People need to recognize the difference between danger and hype!

[arkess7]

I totally couldnt agree more

[inotherwords]

LSU, I would wager a guess that you didn't read the NHC website advisories and discussions but relied on the media to interpret them for you. Have you not seen enough excerpts from the NHC advisories posted here that indicate SW. LA being in danger from this storm consistently throughout the days preceding it? If so we can go back and provide a few more for you. How many do you have to read to realize you are misplacing blame?

Also, as far as those outside the strike zone supporting NHC...last year Charley hit 30 miles south of here when the line showed Tampa. I am inbetween location-wise. Did I blame the NHC? No. Because I paid attention to the cone and NOT the line, and had evacuated a day earlier.

[x-y-no]

Again, no one in south Louisiana is applauding the NHC for this storm. Yeah, the NHC usually does a pretty good job.

They did a good job for SELA for predicting Katrina, and the LA folk were thankful. They did a good job of warning TX of Rita, but not of LA. All of south LA experienced TS winds, and most experienced hurricane winds. NHC predictions for this were way off. Where were the warnings for SELA for an extremely high tidal surge (Terrebonne and Jefferson parishes in SELA experienced a 10-15ft surge when only a 4-8 was predicted by the NHC?

Say what you will while you're in Texas and Florida, but you will see hardly a person from LA thanking the NHC for their work on Rita.

The question is why are you continuing to promote this error when it has been repeatedly pointed out to you that starting as early as Wednesday the NHC consistantly warned LA of the possibilty of exactly the conditions they eventually saw?

Do false impressions trump the truth? Are you serving any valid purpose in sustaining false impressions in the face of incontrivertible evidence to the contrary?

[x-y-no]

Someone give me a numeric comparison of the Dennis forecast and the Rita forecast? What there is no numeric comparison??? You tell me the minds that create these models cant think of a way of numericaly grading their accuracy? I really doubt that. So where are the numerical comparisons of accuracy?

NHC routinely compares the accuracy of both their position and intensity forecasts for 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 hours. When the final storm reports are issued for both of these TCs, you'll see the errors.

This may answer some of your questions.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/

Wouln't it be nice if slaccuweather would do the same? They won't though, because then their pathetic record would be clear to everyone.