Moderator: S2k Moderators
boca_chris wrote:what are the chances of this continueing west till florida????shouldn't it have turn north already but it continues west
some of the models take it WNW then back W into FL
sponger wrote:I would disagree on Bamm being useless. They do fairly well with shallow systems even out of the deep tropics. Did real well with td 10/ katrina untill it reached hurricane strength.
The real issue is this time of year they don't do well with cold front interactions.
quandary wrote:What's the SHIPS seeing that we don't? Usually its at least good for noting that there's going to be shear somewhere, but it just ramps this thing up to a Cat 2 storm. Hybrid storms are pretty good at standing up against strong shear, but they never get up to hurricane strength, much less Cat 2 strength unless they fully transition.
sponger wrote:I would disagree on Bamm being useless. They do fairly well with shallow systems even out of the deep tropics. Did real well with td 10/ katrina untill it reached hurricane strength.
The real issue is this time of year they don't do well with cold front interactions.
sponger wrote:
I would disagree on Bamm being useless. They do fairly well with shallow systems even out of the deep tropics. Did real well with td 10/ katrina untill it reached hurricane strength.
The real issue is this time of year they don't do well with cold front interactions.
I think you'd better go back and take another look at the BAMs for Katrina:
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... tore/2005/
I looked at each run and they were all over the place, from the SW Gulf to moving across Florida then doing a 180 and coming back across Florida before Katrina was a hurricane.
The BAM models simply can't handle a changing environment and shouldn't be used out of the deep tropics
Definately a mess later no doubt, but I was reffering to the early stages when all models were indicating the weakness to the North would pull td 10 with it. The Bamm seemed to lock on the westerly track when most of the models missed it.
As for Florida hits fci, I agree, it seems to like Florida!
The 18Z's:
tomorrow so here it is tonight, a few hours early: 
