Tropical Depression 23W at WPAC

[P.K.]

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0522 TEMBIN (0522)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 102100UTC 16.5N 120.9E FAIR
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 112100UTC 17.0N 119.3E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
45HF 121800UTC 17.7N 118.3E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
69HF 131800UTC 18.7N 116.5E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT

[P.K.]

WTPQ20 RJTD 110600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 0522 TEMBIN (0522)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110600UTC 18N 119E
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 1004HPA =

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (TEMBIN) WARNING NR 017
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 23W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 18.0N 119.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0N 119.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 19.0N 118.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 19.7N 116.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 20.0N 115.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 20.1N 113.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 20.0N 112.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 18.3N 119.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 23W (TEMBIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TD 23W HAS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED AS IT HAS
MOVED OFF OF LUZON, PHILIPPINES INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A FULLY EXPOSED WEAK LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DEVOID OF ALL CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SIGNI-
FICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z,
112100Z, 120300Z AND 120900Z.//


If TEMBIN doesn't flare back this morning, it could dissipate by the 10 AM advisory.

[HURAKAN]

[Aslkahuna]

The storm's(?) passage across Luzon was generally underwhelming except for some rain. We didn't even see the uptick in winds at Laoag, Dagupan, Iba and Subic that we see after a system coasts out and begins to reintensify. In fact, the system was very much less than impressive as it approached Luzon-I've seen better looking tropical waves over there.

Steve

[P.K.]

The 6am GMT advisory I posted earlier was the last one issued by the JMA for this system.