SW Indian Ocean: TD Alvin Ex-Bertie
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
-
Matt-hurricanewatcher
-
Matt-hurricanewatcher
-
Forecaster Colby
-
Forecaster Colby
-
P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:So what is the normal number of storms by this time for this year?
The season only started at the start of the month.
Cat 3 now:
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0635UTC 21 NOVEMBER 2005
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA
Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.
SITUATION
At 0600UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Bertie located within 15 nautical miles of
Latitude nine decimal seven south [9.7S]
Longitude ninety two decimal one east [92.1]
Recent movement south southwest at 10 knots.
Maximum winds 75 knots.
Central pressure 960 hPa.
AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of the centre, extending to 180 nautical miles in
southern quadrants.
FORECAST
Within 25 nautical miles of the centre, winds to 75 knots weakening to below 60
knots by 22/0600UTC. Very high seas and heavy swell.
Within 40 nautical miles winds above 48 knots with very rough to high seas and
moderate to heavy swell.
Within 90 nautical miles of the centre extending to 180 nautical miles in
southern quadrants, winds above 34 knots with rough to very rough seas and
moderate to heavy swell.
At 1800UTC 21 November: 11.0 south 91.4 east
965 hPa. Winds to 70 knots near centre.
At 0600UTC 22 November: 12.4 south 90.8 east
975 hPa. Winds to 55 knots near centre.
Next warning issued by 1300 UTC 21 November 2005.
WEATHER PERTH
0 likes
-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTXS31 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BERTIE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 9.3S 92.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.3S 92.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 10.4S 91.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 11.7S 91.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 13.1S 90.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 14.4S 90.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 9.6S 92.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (BERTIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
310 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 03S
IS FORECAST TO TRACK POLEWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED TO THE EAST.
TC 03S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER TAU 24 AS IT MOVES OVER
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ENCOUNTERS HIGHER VERT-
ICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z
IS 31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z AND 220900Z.//
0 likes
-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 1239UTC 21 NOVEMBER 2005
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA
Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.
SITUATION
At 1200UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Bertie located within 20 nautical miles of
Latitude ten decimal two south [10.2S]
Longitude ninety one decimal seven east [91.7]
Recent movement south southwest at 8 knots.
Maximum winds 75 knots.
Central pressure 960 hPa.
AREA AFFECTED
Within 120 nautical miles of the centre, extending to 150 nautical miles in
southern quadrants.
FORECAST
Within 25 nautical miles of the centre, winds to 80 knots. Very high seas and
heavy swell.
Within 40 nautical miles winds above 48 knots with very rough to high seas and
heavy swell.
Within 120 nautical miles of the centre extending to 150 nautical miles in
southern quadrants, winds above 34 knots with rough to very rough seas and
moderate to heavy swell.
At 0000UTC 22 November: 11.6 south 91.2 east
955 hPa. Winds to 80 knots near centre.
At 1200UTC 22 November: 12.8 south 90.4 east
960 hPa. Winds to 75 knots near centre.
Next warning issued by 1900 UTC 21 November 2005.
WEATHER PERTH
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 1239UTC 21 NOVEMBER 2005
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA
Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.
SITUATION
At 1200UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Bertie located within 20 nautical miles of
Latitude ten decimal two south [10.2S]
Longitude ninety one decimal seven east [91.7]
Recent movement south southwest at 8 knots.
Maximum winds 75 knots.
Central pressure 960 hPa.
AREA AFFECTED
Within 120 nautical miles of the centre, extending to 150 nautical miles in
southern quadrants.
FORECAST
Within 25 nautical miles of the centre, winds to 80 knots. Very high seas and
heavy swell.
Within 40 nautical miles winds above 48 knots with very rough to high seas and
heavy swell.
Within 120 nautical miles of the centre extending to 150 nautical miles in
southern quadrants, winds above 34 knots with rough to very rough seas and
moderate to heavy swell.
At 0000UTC 22 November: 11.6 south 91.2 east
955 hPa. Winds to 80 knots near centre.
At 1200UTC 22 November: 12.8 south 90.4 east
960 hPa. Winds to 75 knots near centre.
Next warning issued by 1900 UTC 21 November 2005.
WEATHER PERTH
0 likes
-
P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 1828UTC 21 NOVEMBER 2005
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA
Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.
SITUATION
At 1800UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Bertie located within 20 nautical miles of
Latitude ten decimal three south [10.3S]
Longitude ninety one decimal seven east [91.7]
Recent movement south southwest at 4 knots.
Maximum winds 75 knots.
Central pressure 960 hPa.
AREA AFFECTED
Within 100 nautical miles of the centre, extending to 120 nautical miles in
western quadrants.
FORECAST
Within 25 nautical miles of the centre, winds to 80 knots decreasing below 64
knots by 22/1800UTC. Very high seas and heavy swell.
Within 40 nautical miles winds above 48 knots with very rough to high seas and
heavy swell.
Within 100 nautical miles of the centre extending to 120 nautical miles in
western quadrants, winds above 34 knots with rough to very rough seas and
moderate to heavy swell.
At 0600UTC 22 November: 11.4 south 91.3 east
965 hPa. Winds to 70 knots near centre.
At 1800UTC 22 November: 12.7 south 90.6 east
975 hPa. Winds to 60 knots near centre.
Next warning issued by 0100 UTC 22 November 2005.
WEATHER PERTH
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 1828UTC 21 NOVEMBER 2005
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA
Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.
SITUATION
At 1800UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Bertie located within 20 nautical miles of
Latitude ten decimal three south [10.3S]
Longitude ninety one decimal seven east [91.7]
Recent movement south southwest at 4 knots.
Maximum winds 75 knots.
Central pressure 960 hPa.
AREA AFFECTED
Within 100 nautical miles of the centre, extending to 120 nautical miles in
western quadrants.
FORECAST
Within 25 nautical miles of the centre, winds to 80 knots decreasing below 64
knots by 22/1800UTC. Very high seas and heavy swell.
Within 40 nautical miles winds above 48 knots with very rough to high seas and
heavy swell.
Within 100 nautical miles of the centre extending to 120 nautical miles in
western quadrants, winds above 34 knots with rough to very rough seas and
moderate to heavy swell.
At 0600UTC 22 November: 11.4 south 91.3 east
965 hPa. Winds to 70 knots near centre.
At 1800UTC 22 November: 12.7 south 90.6 east
975 hPa. Winds to 60 knots near centre.
Next warning issued by 0100 UTC 22 November 2005.
WEATHER PERTH
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot], jlauderdal, riapal and 62 guests