Attention, please

[DoctorHurricane2003]

WindRunner, I think we should just stop because this is getting close to trolling. If we ignore it, it will go away.

[WindRunner]

WindRunner, I think we should just stop because this is getting close to trolling. If we ignore it, it will go away.

Good idea. I was starting to think the same thing myself.

[cycloneye]

WindRunner, I think we should just stop because this is getting close to trolling. If we ignore it, it will go away.

Key Word Ignore.

[Jim Hughes]

I think part of the problem is that there are a slim number of people out there who get terribly upset if some evidence comes out that it won't go the way they would like it to go. It's sad, but unfortunately true.

Yes they do. Especially when it points towards quieter times. It seems like we have have have gone back in time some how. The people in this era seem to like action as much as the Romans and the gladiators.



Jim

[Weatherfreak000]

"How dare you say that NHC forecasters don't use their heads when producing a forecast?"

I dare when I see things such as this...

HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

AGREEMENT AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS...WHICH HAD BEEN VERY GOOD
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...HAS COMPLETELY COLLAPSED TODAY. THE
06Z RUNS OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND NOGAPS MODELS ACCELERATED WILMA
RAPIDLY TOWARD NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALL THREE OF THESE
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF THIS SOLUTION...WITH THE GFDL SHOWING AN
EXTREME CHANGE...WITH ITS 5-DAY POSITION SHIFTING A MERE 1650 NMI
FROM ITS PREVIOUS POSITION IN MAINE TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
THERE IS ALMOST AS MUCH SPREAD IN THE 5-DAY POSITIONS OF THE 12Z
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WHICH RANGE FROM THE YUCATAN TO WELL EAST OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. WHAT THIS ILLUSTRATES IS THE EXTREME
SENSITIVITY OF WILMA'S FUTURE TRACK TO ITS INTERACTION WITH THE
GREAT LAKES LOW. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WILMA HAS BEEN
MOVING SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OR SOUTH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...AND
THE LEFT-MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS ARE NOW SHOWING WILMA
DELAYING OR MISSING THE CONNECTION WITH THE LOW. I HAVE SLOWED THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST JUST A LITTLE BIT AT THIS TIME...BUT IF WILMA
CONTINUES TO MOVE MORE TO THE LEFT THAN EXPECTED...SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAY HAVE TO BE MADE DOWN THE LINE.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY THE
TIMING...HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY....

FORECASTER FRANKLIN




I dont' think there is anything else I need to say on that matter. If you don't believe the NHC practically lives off of model runs then you need to open your eyes. Look at hurricane Rita for example. All the models pointed a consistent path into Galveston whilst lowly weather forum dwellers such as myself could have told you indefinitely the thing was gonna jog northwest.

[MiamiensisWx]

"How dare you say that NHC forecasters don't use their heads when producing a forecast?"

I dare when I see things such as this...

HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

AGREEMENT AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS...WHICH HAD BEEN VERY GOOD
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...HAS COMPLETELY COLLAPSED TODAY. THE
06Z RUNS OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND NOGAPS MODELS ACCELERATED WILMA
RAPIDLY TOWARD NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALL THREE OF THESE
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF THIS SOLUTION...WITH THE GFDL SHOWING AN
EXTREME CHANGE...WITH ITS 5-DAY POSITION SHIFTING A MERE 1650 NMI
FROM ITS PREVIOUS POSITION IN MAINE TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
THERE IS ALMOST AS MUCH SPREAD IN THE 5-DAY POSITIONS OF THE 12Z
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WHICH RANGE FROM THE YUCATAN TO WELL EAST OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. WHAT THIS ILLUSTRATES IS THE EXTREME
SENSITIVITY OF WILMA'S FUTURE TRACK TO ITS INTERACTION WITH THE
GREAT LAKES LOW. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WILMA HAS BEEN
MOVING SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OR SOUTH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...AND
THE LEFT-MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS ARE NOW SHOWING WILMA
DELAYING OR MISSING THE CONNECTION WITH THE LOW. I HAVE SLOWED THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST JUST A LITTLE BIT AT THIS TIME...BUT IF WILMA
CONTINUES TO MOVE MORE TO THE LEFT THAN EXPECTED...SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAY HAVE TO BE MADE DOWN THE LINE.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY THE
TIMING...HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY....

FORECASTER FRANKLIN




I dont' think there is anything else I need to say on that matter. If you don't believe the NHC practically lives off of model runs then you need to open your eyes. Look at hurricane Rita for example. All the models pointed a consistent path into Galveston whilst lowly weather forum dwellers such as myself could have told you indefinitely the thing was gonna jog northwest.

True... however, when has forecasting been an "exact" science?

OK, then, I invite you to remove all models. Try forecasting on your own NOW. Difficult, isn't it?

It sounds like YOU are criticising the National Hurricane Center.

[Weatherfreak000]

If you want honesty, a post from someone comes to mind...



A room full of smart guys could make a better model then anyone out there now.

[vbhoutex]

dont' think there is anything else I need to say on that matter. If you don't believe the NHC practically lives off of model runs then you need to open your eyes. Look at hurricane Rita for example. All the models pointed a consistent path into Galveston whilst lowly weather forum dwellers such as myself could have told you indefinitely the thing was gonna jog northwest.

Gee, I guess I'll have to follow your forecasts from now on!! Strange thing is Rita jogged to the North or more towards the Northeast to miss the Galveston hit. A Northwest jog would have taken her right into Galveston. Really strong forecasting skills there!!!!

[rainbird]

yep,

higher SST would likely mean more intense hurricanes due to a higher MPI, if all other conditions are favorable, but not increased frequency

What does "MPI" stand for?? - Thank you much

[cjrciadt]

yep,

higher SST would likely mean more intense hurricanes due to a higher MPI, if all other conditions are favorable, but not increased frequency

What does "MPI" stand for?? - Thank you much

Maximun Potential Intensity.
http://www.bbsr.edu/rpi/private/hurricanes/research/kerrynew.html

[rainbird]

yep,

higher SST would likely mean more intense hurricanes due to a higher MPI, if all other conditions are favorable, but not increased frequency

What does "MPI" stand for?? - Thank you much

Maximun Potential Intensity.
http://www.bbsr.edu/rpi/private/hurricanes/research/kerrynew.html[
/quote]

Thank you - Appreciate - especially the web site -