Snow for Texas

[CaptinCrunch]

I don't know about it getting that cold all the way to the valley, but like I have said the GFS does not handel shallow cold dence airmasses, it's like crawling under the barbwire fence. Anyway's by friday we will have a better handel on the possible cold coming our way.

[PTrackerLA]

The latest GFS shows the 540 thickness line going well offshore of Louisiana...which means it would be really cold around here! Let's see if it changes or not by tomorrow.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

I don't know about it getting that cold all the way to the valley, but like I have said the GFS does not handel shallow cold dence airmasses, it's like crawling under the barbwire fence. Anyway's by friday we will have a better handel on the possible cold coming our way.

True, very true.

Also another thing I've noticed with the NWS is they are too darn quick to want to send everything eastward and whatever fronts come this way usually are through the backdoor. Frankly I get tired of seeing the terminology.

[vbhoutex]

Still looks like somewhat of a "backdoor" hit ti me, but it appears we will have at least one really cold(to us)day oout of it with several days of cool weather. Unfortunately there is little precip shown in that time frame in the deep South. Those further East fromus stand a much better chance at some bitter(for us) temps and possible frozen precip of some kind.

[Portastorm]

Several AFDs from Texas NWS offices are shedding more light on this:

From Corpus Christi:
--------------------------
THE 12Z GFS SOLN
AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 00Z CANADIAN AND ECMWF SOLNS INDICATE A
CHILLY AIRMASS POISED TO MOVE INTO THE CWA BEHIND THIS FNT. BASED
UPON THIS AND THE TIME OF YEAR...DECIDED TO LOWER TEMPS BY AT LEAST
A CATEGORY ACROSS THE BOARD FOR THE MON-WED TIMEFRAME. EVEN WITH
THIS TWEAKING...WE PROBABLY ARE STILL TOO WARM WITH TEMPS. MY
INITIAL FEELING IS THAT FREEZING TEMPS MAY BE POSSIBLE BY TUE
MORNING ACROSS THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

From Amarillo:
----------------------
HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE GFS/S LEAD BEYOND SATURDAY. THE MODEL
IS SUGGESTING A MUCH COLDER SOLUTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BEYOND.
THIS IS A FLIP FLOP FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN...HOWEVER...IT IS FITTING
IN WELL WITH FORECASTS IT GAVE A FEW DAYS AGO. A COUPLE OF REASONS
WHY WE LIKE THE NEW GFS. ONE...THE AIR MASS TO THE NORTH ACROSS
WYOMING INTO SOUTH DAKOTA IS FAIRLY COLD WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
HOLDING IN THE TEENS AND 20S. TWO...THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IS
SUGGESTING THAT A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN EXISTS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC INTO CANADA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED
JUST WEST OF ALASKA AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SITTING OVER
CENTRAL CANADA AND IT DOESN/T SHOW SIGNS OF BUDGING. WE FEEL THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY FROM THIS NEXT WEEKEND THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP THE DOOR OPEN TO CANADIAN
INTRUSIONS OF COLD AIR.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Looks like they are starting to come around. Again it looks like too much hugging of the models instead of instict whenever they flip flop from discussion to discussion. I miss some of the old school forecasters.

[Portastorm]

Looks like they are starting to come around. Again it looks like too much hugging of the models instead of instict whenever they flip flop from discussion to discussion. I miss some of the old school forecasters.

CC, I have seen you post of this several times and remember you talking about it last winter season. Yes, I think the ol', grizzled NWS vets who used to work at Brownsville and could spot a McFarland Pattern 2 weeks out are long gone, sadly.

There doesn't seem to be too many old school forecasters around.

[Extremeweatherguy]

the 18Z Nov. 30 run of the GFS brings an area of sleet, frz. rain and snow into north Texas (Dallas Area) during the middle to later part of next week, but it does not look like it would reach Houston...HOWEVER we could see a few days with highs below 50 and some rain! That is always the worst...cold and rainy. There is still a lot to monitor though, as this is an ever-changing situation, and the exact scenario probably will not be known until this weekend or even Monday or Tuesday of next week. There is definitely a lot to watch in the coming days...

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 0Z run looks a little cooler than the 18Z run did...it brings some snow into NE Texas. May be we will even get a sleet pellet or two down this way in Houston! Lots to watch...

[ETXHAMXYL]

Hey you got snow on Christmas last year and NTX got zilch..I think it is our time to see some frozen stuff...but if we get more than enough we'll be glad to send some down your ways...

[WhiteShirt]

The 0Z run looks a little cooler than the 18Z run did...it brings some snow into NE Texas. May be we will even get a sleet pellet or two down this way in Houston! Lots to watch...

What are the predicted highs and lows here and when is it supposed to get cold here?

[Extremeweatherguy]

It is a little too early to predict exact highs and lows, but it looks like the cold air would probably arrive here next Wednesday. If I had to make a guess on highs right now I would probably have to say 30s for the Dallas area, 40s for Houston and 50s for areas south of Houston like Corpus Christi, and lower 60s in extreme south Texas on the coldest day, but this will change around between now and then...overall it looks like it will be at the very least...the coldest air we have seen so far this season...which in Houston so far is a high of 57 back in mid November.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Obviously something is going to change in a big way.

Most of the NWS AFD's this AM are indicating temps will crash middle of next week.

Bastardi says the GFS will bust by 10-20 degrees

DT/Wxrisk notes a snow storm is possible for Texas and the Deep South for Dec 7-8!

The trend is our friend for those that want cold! Bring it!

[vbhoutex]

Even our local ocm's are beginning to mention the cold probabilities now, not the precip though. Looks like a cool down Monday/ Tuesday and the bigger hit Wednesday/Thursday here. Lows could easily reach into the low to mid 30's here.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Looks like they are starting to come around. Again it looks like too much hugging of the models instead of instict whenever they flip flop from discussion to discussion. I miss some of the old school forecasters.

CC, I have seen you post of this several times and remember you talking about it last winter season. Yes, I think the ol', grizzled NWS vets who used to work at Brownsville and could spot a McFarland Pattern 2 weeks out are long gone, sadly.

There doesn't seem to be too many old school forecasters around.

Those guys were that good down there. I recall listening to some of their forecast discussions and weather summaries on my Radio Shack Weather radio back in the 80's when they were pointing out changes in weather pattern with Arctic outbreaks way before anyone else was. You could just tell they knew what the heck they were talking about.

Besides if any of them were still around, they would have been replaced on radio by "Igor" or whomever else with the new automated weather radio broadcasts.

[ETXHAMXYL]

The NTX NWS doesn't show the cold air in their graphics only mention it in their discussion. They say mid-weeks high in NTX should be in the 30's and they may have to trim down the highs, but are waiting to see more runs of the models.
So at least there is a mention of it, but no mention of any frozen precip. at this time.
Accuweather still has us cool in the 50's and then soon after until the 15th or so back up in the 60's and only one mention of rain in their 15 day forecast period.
I guess this is a wait and see. It's easier to predict after and even than before one, at least in Texas that is.

[CaptinCrunch]

looking at the GFS MRF models the only chance of precip for NTX will come around the 8th, the models for that time period also show a cold airmass in place over NTX, highs look to be in the 40's range maybe cooler, I would expect the over night lows to be 32 or below.

http://weather.unisys.com/mrf/9panel/mrf_850_9panel.html

http://weather.unisys.com/mrf/9panel/mrf_pres_9panel.html

[Portastorm]

looking at the GFS MRF models the only chance of precip for NTX will come around the 8th, the models for that time period also show a cold airmass in place over NTX, highs look to be in the 40's range maybe cooler, I would expect the over night lows to be 32 or below.

http://weather.unisys.com/mrf/9panel/mrf_850_9panel.html

http://weather.unisys.com/mrf/9panel/mrf_pres_9panel.html

Keep in mind the model runs you reference are from the 0z run. Both the 6z and 12z runs today look a bit colder and wetter, especially the 12z run. As well, if you want to believe JB (accuwx), the GFS temps may bust by as much as 10-20 degrees next week. That could change things!

[CaptinCrunch]

looking at the GFS MRF models the only chance of precip for NTX will come around the 8th, the models for that time period also show a cold airmass in place over NTX, highs look to be in the 40's range maybe cooler, I would expect the over night lows to be 32 or below.

http://weather.unisys.com/mrf/9panel/mrf_850_9panel.html

http://weather.unisys.com/mrf/9panel/mrf_pres_9panel.html

Keep in mind the model runs you reference are from the 0z run. Both the 6z and 12z runs today look a bit colder and wetter, especially the 12z run. As well, if you want to believe JB (accuwx), the GFS temps may bust by as much as 10-20 degrees next week. That could change things!

I looked at the 6z and the 12z GFS runs and while the temps are close to the 0z the precip is way over done, but we shall see. The cold is coming despite what some may think, I just don't see that much moisture coming off the Gulf with the current weather pattern we have been in. I would love for it to be true, we sure need the rain STATE wide, but droughts are hard to break once they set in as this one has.

When the cold air arrives it won't last to long, 3-4 days at best, then it will be back to the mid to upper 60's for us here in NTX and warmer the futher south you go.

[jeff]

Lots of excitement to talk about this morning especially for next week.


Cool front currently moving across the area, and at 600am was located from near Columbus to Spring to Livingston. This front should move off the coast by midday, but will have little affect on temperatures. Light showers were occurring over the southern ½ of the area where the deepest moisture is found. Surface front will return northward as a warm front on Friday as low pressure develops in the lee of the CO Rockies.


Saturday will be quite warm with highs easily into the low 80’s and maybe at or above records with strong S and SW winds. Critical fire weather conditions will once again be in place across central and north TX where over 1700 acres burned this past Sunday alone around the Dallas area.



Strong Canadian cold front will reach SE TX Sunday and put an end to the brief warm spell. This air mass will modify some, but guidance has been showing cooler and cooler conditions with each run. There will be a chance of rain along and ahead of the front and then strong north winds behind the front.



Next Week:

Canadian air mass will be in control Monday and then a pattern change. Model solutions have come into better agreement that arctic air will enter the US late Monday and pour southward. A large 1040mb high breaks lose from Alaska and builds southward down the plains Tuesday into Wednesday. Shallow but very cold air should arrive in TX late Tuesday or early Wednesday with strong north winds. 850mb temps plunge to -4 to -10 C across N and W TX which is quite cool. GFS shows a wave developing along the arctic boundary over the NW Gulf of Mexico Wednesday with moisture pouring northward into the cold air mass. Rest of the forecast models do not indicate such a development, but should the other models trend toward the GFS, one would have to start considering Precip-type issues with both the 540 m thickness and 0C 850mb temp line near the region. For now we shall disregard the GFS wave development and be satisfied with widespread clouds. Forecast temps. from Tuesday onward will likely need significant downward adjustment as confidence in the forecast grows. Highs could easily remain in the 40’s both Wednesday and Thursday and that may be too warm.