gulf loop current

[windycity]

another thing that concerns me,is the size of the loop current is considerbly larger this year.Combine that with higher SSTs and it doesnt look good.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Take a look the Caribbean and the eastern Atlatnic is way below normal. Most of the Atlantic is normal to slightly below. I say 13 named storms I don't understand why people are forecasting so high. 2003/2004 where warmer then normal.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/NCO ... nomaly.gif

[skysummit]

Take a look the Caribbean and the eastern Atlatnic is way below normal. Most of the Atlantic is normal to slightly below. I say 13 named storms I don't understand why people are forecasting so high. 2003/2004 where warmer then normal.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/NCO ... nomaly.gif

It's only March. Give it time and the Atlantic will catch up. It probably won't be boiling, but I'm sure it'll be warm enough to support tropical activity. It's the gulf being warmer than normal that I'm afraid of.

[CHRISTY]

can u call max mayfield just people?iam sticking with what the experts are saying.....

[MiamiensisWx]

Take a look the Caribbean and the eastern Atlatnic is way below normal. Most of the Atlantic is normal to slightly below. I say 13 named storms I don't understand why people are forecasting so high. 2003/2004 where warmer then normal.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/NCODA/US058VMET-GIFwxg.NCODA.glbl_sstanomaly.gif

My numbers are 16/9/6. I wouldn't call that overly high. Besides, if I remember correctly, weren't you almost banned a long time ago? Also, just when one thing changes slightly, you change your numbers drastically. Really, come on... look at long-term trends, not short-term ones. The Atlantic, even near Africa, will be well warm enough to support tropical activity - and Cape Verde storms - in the peak of the season. Trust me.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Why bring up the banned part? That was along time ago...Also 2003/2004 was above avg to. Last year was a weird pattern that made alot of storms...Truely mostly likely around 2003/2004 like numbers.

Also I'm sticking with these numbers as final.

[CHRISTY]

every expert is calling for an active season!even max went to the extreme and said this year could be worse then 05 so in general iam sticking with the people who have been studying these monsters all there lives!thats the people at the NHC!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I'v been watching these things for most to all my life my self. Also I expect Gray to go with a number below 20 at least. In yes that would be a very very busy season. Does the set up look good for it?

2005 28 name storms
1933 21 named storms
1995 19 named storms

I'm basing my thinking closer to climo...Before last year no one but the highest or people I disagree with would of forecasted more then 20 named storms. In the sst's over all are cooler then 2003,2004,2005 set up. I do say that a la nina will lower the shear. That is why 13 named storms look good. The avg is 9 for the Atlantic...So adding la nina into it will bring it to above avg.

Going by history
Going by Norms
Going by what I know...
In also thinking last year was out of this world.

[MiamiensisWx]

Of course it was out of this world, Matthew.

[ROCK]

Has anyone seen the sst chart for the GOM? its scary when you see how warm the water is now, not to mention when its summer ! I think its warmer than last year at this time, go figure.

good news is that a major cold snap is on the way and the northern Gulf should cool some over the next few weeks.

Looks like that major cold snap is shifting east and not as strong. I to have watched the GOM sst's this year. Pretty warm for March if you ask me. Anything tracking into the gulf will find a lot of fuel to feed off from.

canerade- got to remember that one..

[windycity]

Last year was a record breaker,one i doubt we will see again,number wise. however,you have to look at this season differently.Last year,for instance,the loop current wasnt this big.Temps,at this time,also were not as high.(as they are now in the GOMEX) There are very warm SSTs through out the yucatan,the same spots that made history last year.Am i concerned?absolutly.Just because the eastern atlantic is cooler than last year, doesnt mean a thing.

[MiamiensisWx]

canerade- got to remember that one..

[ROCK]

nice job CVW

[CHRISTY]

HERE IS A GULF OF MEXICO AND CARIBBEAN LOOP CHECK IT OUT!

[Ixolib]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=1244156#1244156

[KWT]

Really the SST's will shift about quite readly, things may well be below average in the east of the atlantic but there is a good 2-3 months before systems are likely to form, and i can assure you that us ample time for the atlantic to warmk up and besides, below average is only relative to the actual temp

[f5]

think of the loop current as Canearade .the loop current is a pool of hot water that goes down about 300-500 ft.Katrina and Rita were moving at turtle speed once they got over the loop current.when they got over the loop current all that water they were drinking was causing those 2 storms to have WPAC windspeeds which is insane in the atlantic basin

that is not a slogan its the Real Deal

[windycity]

I was over on the west coast this past weekend (Maderia bch.St.Pete area)My sister lives on the intercoatal,and this summer has me very nervous for her.The water seemed to be too high,and it wasnt high tide.A cat 1 in that area would cause alot of damage,not to mention one stronger.I started this post to make sure all of us pay attention to whats going on,my sister needs me to keep her up to date.The SSTs in the gulf are higher this year than last year,the loop current is larger this year.We have LaNina this year which will cut back shear.Even if LaNina weakens,and neg.enso conditions develop,we would still have a 05 like set up.I am extremly nervous about the gulf,they dodged the bullet with Charley and pray they dodge the bullet again this year.

[SouthFloridawx]

I was over on the west coast this past weekend (Maderia bch.St.Pete area)My sister lives on the intercoatal,and this summer has me very nervous for her.The water seemed to be too high,and it wasnt high tide.A cat 1 in that area would cause alot of damage,not to mention one stronger.I started this post to make sure all of us pay attention to whats going on,my sister needs me to keep her up to date.The SSTs in the gulf are higher this year than last year,the loop current is larger this year.We have LaNina this year which will cut back shear.Even if LaNina weakens,and neg.enso conditions develop,we would still have a 05 like set up.I am extremly nervous about the gulf,they dodged the bullet with Charley and pray they dodge the bullet again this year.

Praying for that area also.. my uncle lives in punta gorda right on the water also. In his canal he is only about 100 yards form the peace river. I gave him all the slosh models for his area and showed him how his house would be under water in a cat 3+. He thought it be best and stay with us over here during the storm. Eventhough they recieved no damage he didn't have to worry about him and his family as much.

[windycity]

i hear ya,the only problem is getting people out in time. There is no way in that area,that everyone that needs to leave,can.