Hurricane Alley 2006 season Landfall Forecast

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Predictions:
1. A tropical wave will be somewhere in the atlantic basin sometime in
2006
2. In some place during the entire season, where the water is warm and the shear is low, a tropical cyclone will form
3. This enigmatic tropical cyclone will spin in a counterclockwise fashion
4. A five-day track will be put out for this cyclone
5. The cyclone will contain wind and rain
6. The aforementioned tropical cyclone will manifest its tropical essence sometime
between now and the specific time period of Christmas 2006.

I predict a career in comedy for Tampa Bay Hurricane

Thank you.

[hcane]

Found this ..... gasoline on the fire I suppose

[Scorpion]

Wow, they seemed to be pretty spot on for 2005.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Wow, they seemed to be pretty spot on for 2005.

Yeah, they were. the only one they really missed was Rita and Katrina (when it hit FL).

[hcane]

Here's what they said on the site about their forecast ....

As can be seen, the major "misses" were Katrina's landfall along the southeast Florida coast, Rita's landfall along the Texas/Louisiana border, and Beta along the Nicaraguan coast. These are termed "major" due to the fact that they were at least hurricane status cyclones at landfall.
Conversely, the major "hits" included Cindy, Dennis and Katrina's landfalls along the north-central Gulf coast, Emily's landfall in the southern Windward Islands, on the northeast Yucatan coast, and the northeast Mexican coast, Wilma's landfalls along the northeast Yucatan and southwest Florida coasts, Stan's landfall along the coastline of the Bay of Campeche in southern Mexico, and Dennis' landfall on the southwest Cuban coast.
Overall, there were 16 coastline crossings in areas that were forecasted as having a "High" probability, as early as January. There were also 4 coastline crossings in areas that were not forecasted.

[cajungal]

I don't think that map makes much sense. I think it is impossible to see where a storm will hit that early. It is giving people a false sense of security on the Gulf Coast. People on the Gulf Coast are already getting anxious with another season only 4 months away. They don't even have Louisiana shaded at all. And look at the very small portion of the Texas Coast they have shaded. It may be more of an East Coast thing this year and the Gulf coast might not be that active. But, you never know. We are not going to get a better grip on it until closer to the beginning of the season. Depends on how strong the Bermuda high is will determine if the storms get drawn again to Florida then the Gulf. Or up the east coast or out to sea. Hurricane Alley is also saying no US landfalls of cat 3 or higher. I just don't buy that. It is impossible to tell this early. But, they did have Louisiana shaded in the bright red almost from the beginning and we all know what happened.

[Audrey2Katrina]

Well put, Cajungal... very valid points! That Bermuda High has always played a pivotal role and has proven to be very fickle in the past. Scary from this guy's perspective.

A2K

[hcane27]

I don't think that map makes much sense. I think it is impossible to see where a storm will hit that early. It is giving people a false sense of security on the Gulf Coast. People on the Gulf Coast are already getting anxious with another season only 4 months away. They don't even have Louisiana shaded at all. And look at the very small portion of the Texas Coast they have shaded. It may be more of an East Coast thing this year and the Gulf coast might not be that active. But, you never know. We are not going to get a better grip on it until closer to the beginning of the season. Depends on how strong the Bermuda high is will determine if the storms get drawn again to Florida then the Gulf. Or up the east coast or out to sea. Hurricane Alley is also saying no US landfalls of cat 3 or higher. I just don't buy that. It is impossible to tell this early. But, they did have Louisiana shaded in the bright red almost from the beginning and we all know what happened.

The same was being said about people flying, about man going to the moon, about brain surgery, etc.

[MiamiensisWx]

Also, what about late-season storms from the Caribbean like Wilma? If storms like that form in the western Caribbean and a trough arrives just a little too late, Florida will not be helped. The ridge is only one factor.

[JonathanBelles]

well if our late season streak continues were due for another disturbance, am i right?

[cajungal]

I thought Hurricane Alley usually updates their site by now. No updates since January. I thought last year they went month by month. Last year almost all of SE LA was shaded in the red and it was accurate. This time none of Louisiana or upper TX is shaded. Meaning less than 30% chance. While interesting to look at, it is not always accurate. Most of the site you have to donate money just to get any info. And they hardly ever update. I guess they won't be updating until May or June. Almost all the East Coast is shaded.

[OuterBanker]

I have a suspicion that whoever drew up this map works for the Dade Co. tourist bureau. Next thing you know there will be a new campaign saying

"Forget going to North Carolina beaches they are going to get hit by a Hurricane, come to Miami where you will be safe"

[CHRISTY]

I have a suspicion that whoever drew up this map works for the Dade Co. tourist bureau. Next thing you know there will be a new campaign saying

"Forget going to North Carolina beaches they are going to get hit by a Hurricane, come to Miami where you will be safe"

uh!no

[weatherwoman132]

lmao.

[Weatherfreak000]

This map is bogus



They have SC higher then Florida? That's just flat out stupidity. There is really no consistency with their landfall plots either.


I know they haven't updated so until I see a new update i'll wait to voice a second opinion

[hcane27]

I don't think anyone ... not here , not anywhere can forecast hurricane landfalls. Not these people, not Dr. Gray, no one on this board.

[Air Force Met]

I'm usually one to agree with most things posted on this website. But this map... Oh, this map... Based on the last 3-5 years of intense activity just about everywhere, I couldn't imagine that the GOM will be that tranquil.

I think they gave a child some crayons and told him/her to trace some pretty lines on a map.

Perhaps that's too harsh.

But I do not agree with that information.

I don't think it's too harsh. They give places that have never seen a tropical cyclone landfall a high probability but places that are climatologically favored aren't even threatened? Especially given the pattern as of late? Please.

Guessing where the tracks are going to be is a pipe dream this far out. We won't know until we start to see the summer shaping up.

[gatorcane]

one area that I know is wrong. The Georgia coastline is shaded in at >50% yet they have not seen a major hurricane in this century

Looking more closely at this map there are few areas I actually agree with. How can they say SE FL has 0% chance?

[cycloneye]

one area that I know is wrong. The Georgia coastline is shaded in at >50% yet they have not seen a major hurricane in this century

This century is like a little child very very young only six years.

[gatorcane]

A little child, yes - but to see SE FLorida with less than 30% when the treasure coast of FL has more is not realistic in my opinion.

It also makes no sense Luis that Puerto Rico has a 30% chance but the northern leeward islands just east have a >70% chance. It does not consider the fact that storms move generally West to East.