Bay of Bengal: VSCS Mala - Possible catastrophe for Myanmar

[CHRISTY]

Hurricane Alley has it as a CAT 1 on the 26 of april.

[CHRISTY]

[SouthFloridawx]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
24/2030 UTC 9.0N 89.2E T2.0/2.0 94B -- Bay of Bengal

[Coredesat]

Those are gusts, not sustained winds. The forecast only calls for 50 kt sustained winds.

[SouthFloridawx]

Current Intensity Analysis

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED OBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUE
AODT - Version 6.4.2
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 APR 2006 Time : 020000 UTC
Lat : 9:12:39 N Lon : 89:10:39 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.7 / 994.6mb/ 39.0kt


Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.7 2.7 2.9 4.5

Eye Temp : -68.8C Cloud Region Temp : -72.1C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.1T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF

[CHRISTY]

Those are gusts, not sustained winds. The forecast only calls for 50 kt sustained winds.

yep u are right my bad still a tropical storm.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED OBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUE
AODT - Version 6.4.2
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 APR 2006 Time : 050000 UTC
Lat : 9:21:02 N Lon : 89:02:32 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 / 991.0mb/ 45.0kt


Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 3.0 3.2 4.5

Eye Temp : -70.1C Cloud Region Temp : -67.3C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF

[P.K.]

No. BOB/1/2006/ 01 Dated 25th April 2006

Subject: Depression over Bay of Bengal

A depression has formed over southeast Bay of Bengal today morning and lay centred at 0830 IST of 25th April 2006 near Lat. 9.50 N and Long. 90.50 E, about 350 km southwest of Port Blair and 1200 km southeast of Chennai. The system is likely to intensify further and move initially in a northwesterly direction.

Under its influence, isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall accompanied with squally winds speed reaching 50-60 kmph is likely over Andaman & Nicobar Islands during next 48 hours. However, east coast of India is not likely to be affected during next 3 days.

[P.K.]

25/0830 UTC 9.6N 90.1E T3.0/3.0 02B -- Bay of Bengal

No. BOB/1/2006/ 02 Dated 25th April 2006

Subject: Depression over Bay of Bengal

Morning’s depression has formed over southeast Bay of Bengal today morning and lay centred at 1130 IST of 25th April 2006 near Lat. 9.50 N and Long. 90.50 E, about 350 km southwest of Port Blair and 1200 km southeast of Chennai. The system is likely to intensify further and move initially in a northwesterly direction.

Under its influence, isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall accompanied with squally winds speed reaching 50-60 kmph is likely over Andaman & Nicobar Islands during next 48 hours. As per present indications east coast of India is not likely to be affected by this system.

[P.K.]

Upgraded.

No. BOB/1/2006/ 03 Dated 25th April 2006

Subject: Deep Depression over Bay of Bengal

The depression over southeast Bay of Bengal has moved slightly westwards and concentrated into a deep depression which lay centred at 1430 IST of 25th April 2006 near Lat. 9.50 N and Long. 90.00 E, about 370 km southwest of Port Blair and 1150 km southeast of Chennai. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a northwesterly direction.

Under its influence, isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall accompanied with squally winds speed reaching 55-65 kmph is likely over Andaman & Nicobar Islands during next 48 hours.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED OBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUE
AODT - Version 6.4.2
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 APR 2006 Time : 113000 UTC
Lat : 10:25:29 N Lon : 89:29:59 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 984.0mb/ 55.0kt


Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.5 3.5 3.8 4.5

Eye Temp : -76.2C Cloud Region Temp : -69.1C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF

[HURAKAN]

GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED. LET SEE IF THIS ONE RECEIVES A NAME.

[AussieMark]

I didn't they named cyclones in Bay of Bengal?

maybe I am slack on this

I thought it was like 2B or something they call em

[SouthFloridawx]

Looking much more impressive this morning.

[HURAKAN]

I didn't they named cyclones in Bay of Bengal?

maybe I am slack on this

I thought it was like 2B or something they call em

Since 2004, the North Indian Ocean cyclones that get to certain intensity receive a name.

NAMED SO FAR:
2004:
Tropical Storm Onil (3A)
On October 1, a tropical depression developed in the northeastern Arabian Sea. It moved northeastward, where it strengthened into Tropical Storm Onil on the 2nd. Onil reached a peak of 45 mph winds, though other forecasting agencies estimated a stronger storm. Regardless, the storm entrained dry air and rapidly weakened. Though operationally Onil was said to have made landfall on India, the low level circulation halted just before landfall, drifted southward, and dissipated on the 10th.

In the post-analysis by RSMC New Delhi, the system weakened into a depression over Gujarat-Kutch coast in the evening of 3 October without crossing the coast.

Cyclone Agni (5A)
An area of convection developed in the southern North Indian Ocean on November 26, 90 nautical miles north of the equator. It drifted west-southwestward, and became Tropical Storm Agni November 28 only 42 nautical miles north of the equator, the southernmost tropical cyclone in the Northern Hemisphere. Agni headed west-northwestward, and reached cyclone strength on the 29th over the Arabian Sea. Vertical shear and dry air weakened Agni until dissipation on the 3rd, not far east of Somalia.

2005:
Cyclonic Storm Hibaru
Just behind the previous storm, a trough of low pressure developed into a tropical depression on January 14. Located a few hundred miles east-southeast of Sri Lanka, it meandered to the west, becoming Cyclonic Storm Hibaru on the 16th. Like its predecessor, Hibaru dissipated southeast of Sri Lanka on the 17th. This is the first season with two systems forming in January.

Cyclonic Storm Pyarr
An area of convection developed in the South China Sea on September 12. It moved west-northwestward, moving inland over Thailand on the 13th. It reached the Bay of Bengal on the 15th, and slowly developed. On the 17th it was upgraded to a tropical depression by the Indian Meteorological Department (but not by the JTWC), and on the 18th it became Cyclonic Storm Pyarr. The next day Pyarr made landfall, and on the 21st it dissipated over northwestern India.

Tropical Storm Baaz
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert early on November 27 on a low pressure system with persistent convection around its center not far from the Andaman Islands in the Bay of Bengal. At 2100Z that same day, about 100 n mi west of Port Blair, the JTWC upgraded the low to a tropical depression, with the Indian Meteorological Department following suit the next day. It was upgraded into a tropical storm on the JTWC's following advisory at 0900Z on November 28. On November 29, the official RSMC in New Delhi upgraded the tropical storm to Baaz. The storm eventually dissipated as a significant tropical cyclone over sea near or north of Chennai.

Cyclonic Storm Fanoos
Tropical Storm 06B formed 550 nautical miles east of Chennai on December 6, west of the Andaman Islands. It became Cyclonic Storm Fanoos on December 7. However, Fanoos weakened into a deep depression prior to crossing north Tamil Nadu coast near Vedaranyam at 0530 UTC (1100 IST) December 10. Fanoos weakened further into a low pressure area over south Tamil Nadu coast next day. Its remnants entered Arabian Sea but regeneration did not occur.

Wikipedia has a list of all the names and more information:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lists_of_t ... dian_Ocean

The next name will be: Mala.

[HURAKAN]

45kts-991mb

A LITTLE STRONGER!

[P.K.]

I didn't they named cyclones in Bay of Bengal?

maybe I am slack on this

I thought it was like 2B or something they call em

They are numbered based on if they are in the Arabian Sea or the Bay of Bengal. This is the first this year in the BoB and so has been numbered BOB/1 as shown in the advisories above.

They get named when they reach Cyclonic Storm intensity.

[P.K.]

Upgraded to Cyclonic Storm Mala.

No. BOB/1/2006/ 05 Dated 25th April 2006

Subject: Cyclonic Storm over Bay of Bengal

The Cyclonic Storm ( MALA ) over southeast Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centred at 2030 IST of 25th April 2006 near Lat. 10.00 N and Long. 89.50 E, about 400 km southwest of Port Blair and 1100 km southeast of Chennai. The system is likely to intensify further and move slowly in northwesterly direction.

Under its influence, isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall accompanied with squally winds speed reaching 65-75 kmph is likely over Andaman & Nicobar Islands during next 48 hours.

[cycloneye]

http://www.imd.ernet.in/section/nhac/dynamic/rsmc.htm

Above is the latest about Cyclone Mala.

[HurricaneHunter914]

What is the strongest Cyclone ever that formed in the Bay of Bengal?