TC Monica #4: Fanni Beach (Darwin) Webcam available

wxmann_91 · #41 Postby **wxmann_91** » Sun Apr 23, 2006 10:14 pm

How is the shelf off the coast of northern Australia? I'm very concerned about flooding and storm surge given the training bands visible on the Gove radar.

Derek Ortt · #42 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sun Apr 23, 2006 10:17 pm

Big difference between this and Tracy

Tracy made landfall in Darwin. This will be emerging back into the water at Darwin

Rod Hagen · #43 Postby **Rod Hagen** » Sun Apr 23, 2006 10:18 pm

AussieMark wrote:years cyclones have hit Darwin
1974
1937
1917
1897
1878
1881

so Darwin is not exactly a city that gets hit regularly

Its led a bit of a charmed life, really. Plenty of near misses, not many direct hits.

There might be some more not included in your list, thought. I was up in Alice Springs when "Max" went through Darwin in 1981, for example.

Still, it certainly doesn't generally get as many as NQld or N WA.

Cheers

Rod

AussieMark · #44 Postby **AussieMark** » Sun Apr 23, 2006 10:22 pm

maybe the site I got it from has not been updated recently

I googled Darwins cyclone history :oops:

CHRISTY · #45 Postby **CHRISTY** » Sun Apr 23, 2006 10:23 pm

Appears to me that an ERC is starting. A strong outer is beginning to wrap around the eye, the eye is beginning to cloud up, and Sat appearance is deteriorating. She is no longer a perfect circle like she was 6 hours ago, and strong convection looks to be at secondary wind maximum outside the eye wall.

AussieMark · #46 Postby **AussieMark** » Sun Apr 23, 2006 10:28 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:Big difference between this and Tracy

Tracy made landfall in Darwin. This will be emerging back into the water at Darwin

yeah and they had origins in 2 complete different places also

Tracy had origins in the Arafura sea and like swung around Melville Island and headed SE right into Darwin

whereas Monica has been going west thru the Gulf of Carpentaria

#47 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sun Apr 23, 2006 10:31 pm

Looking a little less organized on satellites - it's about time that an eyewall cycle took place...this thing has been so strong forever!

I think (just a guess) that the winds have come down to around 165 mph.

Aquawind · #48 Postby **Aquawind** » Sun Apr 23, 2006 10:51 pm

What a late season monster.. :eek:

All of these powerful systems in 2 basins within a year are incredible..

HurricaneHunter914 · #49 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Sun Apr 23, 2006 10:55 pm

It seems like these are signs of the End of the World. :roll:

#50 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sun Apr 23, 2006 10:56 pm

Monica really does remind me of Wilma with its timing, intensity and characteristics. The only difference was Monica didn't pinhole its way down...

HurricaneHunter914 · #51 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Sun Apr 23, 2006 10:59 pm

But Wilma at her peak intensity was HUGE. Man I have never seen so many hurricanes in one year bigger than Florida.

Rod Hagen · #52 Postby **Rod Hagen** » Sun Apr 23, 2006 11:00 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:How is the shelf off the coast of northern Australia? I'm very concerned about flooding and storm surge given the training bands visible on the Gove radar.

Shallow shelf that stretches essentially from Australia to Indonesia and New Guinea for the most part, wxmann. The Arafura sea is 60 to 80 metres deep throughout. The very deep Timor Trough lies on the far northern western side of the shelf between Australia and Timor and Indonesia.

Cheers

Rod

CHRISTY · #53 Postby **CHRISTY** » Sun Apr 23, 2006 11:04 pm

Aquawind wrote:What a late season monster.. All of these powerful systems in 2 basins within a year are incredible..

i think our basin is next!

Aquawind · #54 Postby **Aquawind** » Sun Apr 23, 2006 11:05 pm

of course you do..lol

HurricaneHunter914 · #55 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Sun Apr 23, 2006 11:09 pm

Well it is kind of obvious our basin is next CHRISTY. I mean, Hurricane Season is a month away, Dr.Gray thinks more than 5 major storms will form, and there is an above normal forecast for major cane hits. It's like hell is in the ocean.

#56 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sun Apr 23, 2006 11:09 pm

Hurricane Hunter 914 wrote:But Wilma at her peak intensity was HUGE. Man I have never seen so many hurricanes in one year bigger than Florida.

At its peak intensity, Wilma's hurricane winds only went out 15 miles.

HurricaneHunter914 · #57 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Sun Apr 23, 2006 11:14 pm

I meant size in general. See for your self.
http://img434.imageshack.us/img434/628/ ... ic32es.jpg

AussieMark · #58 Postby **AussieMark** » Sun Apr 23, 2006 11:22 pm

I think the core of Monicas strongest winds may be slightly larger than Wilma's were at her peak tho

thank Goodness Cyclone season is nearly over tho

offically ends on Sunday (April 30)

CHRISTY · #59 Postby **CHRISTY** » Sun Apr 23, 2006 11:25 pm

Look at this loop! http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/shemi/storm/archive/javanh26.html.She becomes ragged during the middle, and then her eye looks much better and clears out towards the end.

Coredesat · #60 Postby **Coredesat** » Sun Apr 23, 2006 11:29 pm

WWPS20 KNES 240345
SATELLITE WEATHER BULLETIN
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN MTSAT VIS/IRDAY
.
APRIL 24 2006 0133Z
.
11.5S 135.0E T7.5/7.5/S0.0/24HRS MONICA (23P)
.
PAST POSITION....11.3S 136.4E 23/1330Z IRNIGHT
11.5S 137.7E 23/0233Z VIS/IRDAY
.
REMARKS...WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG YIELDS DT OF 7.5. SURROUNDING
CONVECTION VERY SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN 6 HOURS AGO BUT OVERALL
SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. SYSTEM MOVING
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST.
.
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NMI.

TC Monica #4: Fanni Beach (Darwin) Webcam available

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