Dry May is certain

boca · #41 Postby **boca** » Wed May 03, 2006 12:31 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:On a side note, ridging doesn't seem to be as persistent or strong as it was over the past few previous months. Does anyone agree?

Don't forget about the upper levels also, thats why we can't buy a drop of rain.

MiamiensisWx · #42 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Wed May 03, 2006 12:32 pm

I know; however, even upper-level ridging was more persistent over the previous months, but not now. Also, the drought seems to be easing a bit... weaker and less persistent ridging may be allowing a few more thunderstorms to form out west in the Everglades. Do you agree?

boca · #43 Postby **boca** » Wed May 03, 2006 12:35 pm

I agree but that was last week but very isolated. They don't expext any rain for the next week.

CHRISTY · #44 Postby **CHRISTY** » Wed May 03, 2006 1:06 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:I know; however, even upper-level ridging was more persistent over the previous months, but not now. Also, the drought seems to be easing a bit... weaker and less persistent ridging may be allowing a few more thunderstorms to form out west in the Everglades. Do you agree?

i do not agree...i think the rainy season for south florida which usually starts around the second week in MAY will most likely be delayed for prabably a few weeks.i think probably our only real significant chance to get some decent rain will have to be with a TROPICAL WAVE.but the thing is there no tropical waves in sight.OUR DRY CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY TURN INTO DROUGHT CONDITIONS SOON.

Here's the very latest from the NWS.

000
FXUS62 KMFL 031306
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
930 AM EDT WED MAY 3 2006

.UPDATE...STILL RELATIVELY DRY SO NO CHANGES THERE. SURFACE RIDGE
IS SITTING OVER THE PENINSULA AND WINDS HAVE DROPPED INTO ABOUT THE
10 KNOT RANGE FOR THE COASTALS. SEAS ARE MOSTLY FLAT IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND MAINLY CONSIST OF A SMALL SWELL IN THE ATLANTIC. SO NO
CHANGES PLANNED.

MiamiensisWx · #45 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Wed May 03, 2006 1:10 pm

I think it is still too early to give a defintive answer in terms of ridging. I think we should wait and watch the pattern.

CHRISTY · #46 Postby **CHRISTY** » Wed May 03, 2006 1:12 pm

Here's the lastest...still very small chance for rain.i agree lets wait to see what patterns develope.

000
FXUS62 KMFL 031806
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED MAY 3 2006

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO
CONTINUES TO PLAY THE DOMINANT ROLL IN CONTROLLING OUR WEATHER.
GPSMET AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS SHOW DRY AIR OVER THE PENINSULA
AND THE ATLANTIC. UNTIL THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT IS OVER THE
PENINSULA MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY OUR WEATHER WILL CHANGE
LITTLE. THIS RIDGE IS PARTLY WAITING FOR THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE
NORTHEAST U.S. TO GET OUT OF THE WAY. WHEN THAT OCCURS WE SHOULD
GET INTO A MORE SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MAYBE BE ABLE
TO INCREASE OUR MOISTURE A LITTLE. IN THE MEANTIME THE COLD FRONT
THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. WILL REMAIN MORE OR
LESS STATIONARY WHILE WAITING ON A STRONG ENOUGH UPPER WAVE TO
DEVELOP A LOW ON IT AND MOVE IT SOUTHWARD. THIS SEEMS TO BE TRYING
TO OCCUR IN THE LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER THE
STRENGTH OF THIS UPPER TROUGH IS STILL IN QUESTION SO IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT WE WILL NEED TO HAVE A RAIN CHANCE IN FOR BOTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR OUR UNCERTAINTY. WHAT WE ARE REALLY
EXPECTING TO SEE AT THE END OF OUR PRESENT FORECAST CYCLE IS TO SEE
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OUT IN THE ATLANTIC NEAR 70W DEEPENING ENOUGH TO
BRING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH US. THIS LOW WOULD ALSO BE IN A
POSITION TO PUT SOME SWELLS BACK ALONG THE COAST BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

MiamiensisWx · #47 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Wed May 03, 2006 1:14 pm

It is still WAY too early to say exactly what type of steering patterns we may have. Let's wait and see how the pattern unfolds.

#48 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed May 03, 2006 1:31 pm

I think we will see some good ridging this summer not as strong as 2004 but nothing like the weak setup we had last year..

CHRISTY · #49 Postby **CHRISTY** » Wed May 03, 2006 1:33 pm

boca_chris wrote:I think we will see some good ridging this summer not as strong as 2004 but nothing like the weak setup we had last year..

hopefully not enough to give FLORIDA another bad year. :roll:

Scorpion · #50 Postby **Scorpion** » Wed May 03, 2006 3:23 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:On a side note, ridging doesn't seem to be as persistent or strong as it was over the past few previous months. Also, we are seeing some more thunderstorms now. Does anyone agree?

Strongly disagree. Haven't seen pop-up afternoon thunderstorms here yet.

#51 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed May 03, 2006 3:24 pm

Strongly disagree. Haven't seen pop-up afternoon thunderstorms here yet

Should start seeing them within this month.

MiamiensisWx · #52 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Wed May 03, 2006 3:26 pm

Scorpion wrote:Strongly disagree. Haven't seen pop-up afternoon thunderstorms here yet.

I have. A few weeks ago, I observed thunderstorms popping up over western Palm Beach County due to seabreeze convergence. Ridging was there, but it was - and still is persisting as - mainly at the lower levels, while being much weaker at the upper levels. This is more of a contrast to earlier months, when ridging was a bit stronger and more persistent.

#53 Postby **TampaFl** » Wed May 03, 2006 5:27 pm

Patrick99 wrote:
boca wrote:Rainy season starts in 2 weeks for Florida. My feeling is rainy season won't rear its head until the first 2 weeks in June, with this pattern that won't give up the goat.

I don't think I can remember a rainy season that took that long to materialize.....1998? That's the one that comes to mind for me.

I've always wondered what the trigger is that starts the "rainy season"....when does it begin? I know it's traditionally around Memorial Day, but what is different about that time? Why doesn't it start now? Is it just not hot enough yet for rising air to break the cap?

This might answer your question. When dew point temps stay above 70 degrees and when it drops below 70 in the fall is the "typical" start/end of the rainy season in South Florida. More info by clicking the link:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/newpage/summer_season.html

Thoughts and comments welcomed.

Robert 8-)

CHRISTY · #54 Postby **CHRISTY** » Wed May 03, 2006 5:34 pm

drought conditions will be the word across south florida in the coming weeks...my thinking is the rainy season will be delayed by a few weeks.our rainy season ususally starts around the 2 week in may,but iam not sure this year. :roll:

MiamiensisWx · #55 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Wed May 03, 2006 5:51 pm

This is off the topic, but CHRISTY, you have a new PM from me containing the wallpaper you wanted. It is a great image of Mitch!

CHRISTY · #56 Postby **CHRISTY** » Wed May 03, 2006 9:07 pm

i really do think as we get into late Summer and early fall,i think we could see a negative NAO which could prevent recurving storms from turning out to sea.i really do feel that the gulf of mexico will see some action but the main threat will lie especially in florida,south carolina,and north carolina. :roll:

MiamiensisWx · #57 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Wed May 03, 2006 9:10 pm

I think a negative NAO actually stiffles Atlantic Bermuda High ridging. I heard that somewhere and in research. Am I correct?

CHRISTY · #58 Postby **CHRISTY** » Wed May 03, 2006 9:17 pm

yea ive been trying to do research looking threw different websites all day trying to learn how it works.but yea it does mean strong ridgeing.

MiamiensisWx · #59 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Wed May 03, 2006 9:19 pm

No, CHRISTY... I meant that I heard that a negative NAO weakens Bermuda High ridging.

CHRISTY · #60 Postby **CHRISTY** » Wed May 03, 2006 9:21 pm

but from ive read i thought it was the opposite....this stuff sometimes is very confusing.

Dry May is certain

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