Being May it looks interesting while it lasts

[cycloneye]

I can say that these types of flare-ups in this part of the world, while impressive, are a fairly common occurence this time of the year. This is just a sign that we are getting into the warmer summer months when the ITCZ begins to creep northward and become more active.

SSTs are not really the problem that far south (south of 10N), but environmental conditions as a whole and wave intensities keep this area in check this time of the year. Look up other years satellite pictures from around May and will find similar flare-ups in that area.

We will have a more clear prognostication of the activity in this area in late June and July as we see how the ITCZ activity/position behaves...

As expected it has for the most part poofed.But we have to look at the big picture ahead to see as you said how the ITCZ will be in terms of latitud.However to note there has been more moist air in that area being May.Maybe the monsoon trough is getting active early.

[gatorcane]

Man if you guys think this weak little wave is nerve racking then your lucky you don't live in Hong Kong right now. Everyone here needs to try and toughen up because August and September only gets worse and thats where the real nerve racking drama sets in. People are getting too excited by a little puny Mid May wave. This is all too funny to me

This wave was impressive even if it were August or September. Although it has gone poof - it is looking like we will see an active CV season.

Check out the rest of Africa, as Luis says the monsoon trough could be off to an early start judging by the above normal activity right now:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... rmet7n.GIF

[GeneratorPower]

Wow it really DID poof didn't it. It's plumb gone.

[TheEuropean]

Here it is - or where is it?



The remnants are now near 30W, the next wave is emerging from the coat of western Africa.