Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

boca · #41 Postby **boca** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 10:22 am

The bermuda high is suppossed to be building in so the reason why I said Texas is because of the ESE flow that will set up thus steering the system in that direction.

Noles2006 · #42 Postby **Noles2006** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 10:22 am

Stratusxpeye wrote:Wow. i cant even read the pages fast enough. if I post somthing or refresh theres 3 new threads and 2 new pages in the threads! SERVER OVERLOAD By days end Wow. Happened will i was posting in the model discussion thread and boom theres the invest. Jeesh things happen quickly

Yeah, I'm just staying in this thread and refreshing... I'm going to try to stay away from the other threads... this is going to be nuts! I sure hope the servers are prepared!

CHRISTY · #43 Postby **CHRISTY** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 10:22 am

The Floater has been up for a while in that area.here's an IR image on our first invest of the 2006 season.

boca · #44 Postby **boca** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 10:24 am

Nice sat Christy.

#45 Postby **tailgater** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 10:24 am

skysummit wrote:Cancun Radar

Cancun Radar Nothing impressive.

We need to take collection and go down there and build a better radar site. :lol:

Also sky that floater has been there 2 or 3 days.

MiamiensisWx · #46 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 10:25 am

The steering environment is weak and, combined with the current shear from the southwest to northeast trough across the system, this will likely be a slow and somewhat erratic mover.

Shear is showing hints of decreasing slightly as the trough moves away... look at this loop and shear map below...

Current shear

Visible RGB loop

Although plenty of shear is still evident, as shear and the upper-level flow slowly weakens a bit, we may see some slight - though not much - development. Who agrees?

CHRISTY · #47 Postby **CHRISTY** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 10:25 am

Guys there are to many threads open on this...the recon thread needs to be closed...a lil to soon for that.

#48 Postby **jasons2k** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 10:25 am

boca wrote:The bermuda high is suppossed to be building in so the reason why I said Texas is because of the ESE flow that will set up thus steering the system in that direction.

Yep, good thoughts on this. We've been expecting tropical moisture to come in from the south for next week - just was hoping it wouldn't be in the form of a possible cyclone.

For now, I'd have to say areas west of 90W are most at risk if this develops. I don't expect anything to really develop until it gets across the Yucatan and into the GOM.

Extremeweatherguy · #49 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 10:25 am

I go away for 2 hours and I come back to THIS!!! Wow! I can't believe they are actually giving this a chance. Looks like (if it develops) it could be a threat to anywhere from TX to FL...it is too early to tell.

#50 Postby **skysummit** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 10:26 am

LOL tailgater..but now, that floater means something! :lol:

#51 Postby **brunota2003** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 10:26 am

CHRISTY wrote:Guys there are to many threads open on this...the recon thread needs to be closed...a lil to soon for that.

no...not to early yet...they could go in tomorrow and that is why the discussion is up...

#52 Postby **wxman57** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 10:27 am

Be careful of using the BAMD and even the BAMM on this one, as it'll be a low-level event. And, of course, ignore LBAR and the climo model completely all the time). Take a look at the BAMS for a good first estimate. I haven't seen it come in on our servers yet, but I would suspect a track farther south and west than the BAMM toard Mexico, possibly around 22-23N at landfall.

I'd give it about a 20-30% chance of becoming a TS next Monday or Tuesday in the BoC.

Looking at the latest ECMWF, it has a much stronger ridge over Texas and the NW Gulf than does the GFS early next week, indicating a west or even south of west track. We shall see. I tend to believe the ECMWF's upper-level flow over the GFS, though.

rockyman · #53 Postby **rockyman** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 10:28 am

My Current conditions map (I believe this is the same low pressure center we've been tracking slowly west over the past week)...I said a few days ago that I was fairly optimistic that this system could get going if conditions overhead improved just a little...the surface low has been VERY persistent, especially in light of extremely hostile conditions:

http://i62.photobucket.com/albums/h119/rockyman_photos/GOES14452006159grEoQY.jpg

MiamiensisWx · #54 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 10:28 am

Looks to be drifiting slowly northward a bit on this loop, with a possible center just south-southwest or south-southeast of Cozumel.

#55 Postby **skysummit** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 10:28 am

brunota2003 wrote:
CHRISTY wrote:Guys there are to many threads open on this...the recon thread needs to be closed...a lil to soon for that.
no...not to early yet...they could go in tomorrow and that is why the discussion is up...

I agree...the other Invest thread was locked per my request. Let this one be the real one and the Recon thread stay opened to see if they go there tomorrow. If they do, that Recon thread might actually become a sticky.

boca · #56 Postby **boca** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 10:28 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:I go away for 2 hours and I come back to THIS!!! Wow! I can't believe they are actually giving this a chance. Looks like (if it develops) it could be a threat to anywhere from TX to FL...it is too early to tell.

Hey Extremeweatherguy you see that happens when you fall asleep at the wheel you drool all over yourself.

Extremeweatherguy · #57 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 10:29 am

wxman57 wrote:Be careful of using the BAMD and even the BAMM on this one, as it'll be a low-level event. And, of course, ignore LBAR and the climo model completely all the time). Take a look at the BAMS for a good first estimate. I haven't seen it come in on our servers yet, but I would suspect a track farther south and west than the BAMM toard Mexico, possibly around 22-23N at landfall.

I'd give it about a 20-30% chance of becoming a TS next Monday or Tuesday in the BoC.

Looking at the latest ECMWF, it has a much stronger ridge over Texas and the NW Gulf than does the GFS early next week, indicating a west or even south of west track. We shall see. I tend to believe the ECMWF's upper-level flow over the GFS, though.

I still think TX needs to watch this one closely though. A slight change in the upper air conditions can mean hundreds of miles of difference.

#58 Postby **skysummit** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 10:30 am

If I had to pick West, North, or East, I'll put my money on West.

MiamiensisWx · #59 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 10:31 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:I still think TX needs to watch this one closely though. A slight change in the upper air conditions can mean hundreds of miles of difference.

Well, right now it is in a weak steering environment between a somewhat building ridge and trough creating the shearing southwesterly flow over it. As the trough moves away, we may see some movement take place; until then, this will likely drift a bit or move little.

#60 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 10:31 am

!!!HOLY CRAP!!! :eek:

(for HurricaneGirl)

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