TWO/TWD updates 90L

[Audrey2Katrina]

Good... let it stay there!... but thanks for keeping us abreast of things!

A2K

[tailgater]

This isa TWD from 6-9-06 8:05 am

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER MEXICO N ACROSS
MEXICO TO TEXAS COVERING THE FAR W GULF W OF 90W. BROAD UPPER
TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE NW ATLC DIPPING S OVER THE NE GULF N
OF 26N E OF 90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
N FROM ACROSS CUBA ARE S OF 25N E OF 81W. A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH
REMAINS OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 27N94W. THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
TO BRING DRY CONTINENTAL AIR ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.
THIS SITUATION WILL FINALLY BE CHANGING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS S
THE LOW IN THE CARIBBEAN BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED AND WILL THEN
DRIFT INTO THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA ALONG 16N87W ENE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN INTO THE
W ATLC NEAR W CUBA/WINDWARD PASSAGE. AN UPPER TROUGH THAT
STRETCHES ACROSS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE E CARIBBEAN
UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE FROM THE W THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES
NEAR 14N61W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST NEAR 11N67W. AT THE
SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF W CUBA NEAR
22N84W TO A STRENGTHENING 1008 MB LOW OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE
NEAR 18N86W. THIS SETUP IS CONTINUING TO GIVE THE E CARIBBEAN
DRY AIR AND FAIR SKIES WHILE THE W CARIBBEAN IS UNDER ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION
COVER THE AREA WITHIN 200 NM OF LINE FROM CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR
15N86W TO CUBA NEAR 22N80W. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED AND DRIFT N INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

[canegrl04]

I remember 2001 Alberto.He originated near th CV,became a hurricane and stayed near the Bahamas for a record amount of time. That year shear was ripping everything apart that came near the US. Looks like he could get his chance in the GOM this time

[Nimbus]

Interesting that the 1008 surface low has been reinitialized further NE to 18N 86W over water as per yesterdays speculation. Early morning sat shots show some increasing convection in that area. Should be interesting to see what the models do with the new initialization. First named storm of the season seems a little more likely from this system now.

[Incident_MET]

A system developing out of this deep convection looks better today. Farther from land, very warm water and much less shear that 24 to 36 hours ago. We shall see. Would be nice to track into the central gulf as a storm and bring much needed rain to the FL region.

[Nimbus]

There was some rotation visible in the low level clouds this morning on the IR floater off the coast of the Yucatan. Dry air and shear to the north would be a problem but the gulf conditions are becoming more favorable. The shear tendancy is becoming much more favorable near the position of the LLC.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shtZ.GIF

If the upper level High over Mexico rolls east a little we could have a real problem.

[SWFLA_CANE]

Question...If this system gets more organized and moves into the GOM, with sheer decreasing and decent SST what will prevent it from strengthening?

[meteorologyman]

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CONTINUES FROM CENTRAL AMERICA
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND PORTIONSOF CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITHA BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COVERING EASTERN YUCATAN AND THE GULFOF HONDURAS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT WITHINTHE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM LAND.

[meteorologyman]

Question...If this system gets more organized and moves into the GOM, with sheer decreasing and decent SST what will prevent it from strengthening?

I am no expert but I'll give it a guess

1. the Jet stream will make the storm move somewhat fast, storms generally go slow when developing.

2. Dry air is present.

[SWFLA_CANE]

Thanks

[cycloneye]

Stay tuned to this thread that shortly the 11:30 AM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook will be posted.Let's see how the language will be in this outlook and if something new appears on it.

[gatorcane]

Thanks Luis for of course doing such a great job keeping us all informed - I am definitely interested in what they have to say. I wouldn't be surprised if they say something like "it is possible a TD will form later today or tomorrow".

[HurricaneHunter914]

Question...If this system gets more organized and moves into the GOM, with sheer decreasing and decent SST what will prevent it from strengthening?

I am no expert but I'll give it a guess

1. the Jet stream will make the storm move somewhat fast, storms generally go slow when developing.

2. Dry air is present.

But that dry air is expected to decrease.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 081503
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU JUN 08 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR BELIZE IS PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA... BELIZE... WESTERN CUBA... AND MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR DUE TO ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND
INTERACTION WITH LAND. HOWEVER... AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTH
OR NORTHWESTWARD... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
MUCH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... BELIZE... GUATEMALA... AND WESTERN
CUBA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

[WeatherEmperor]

ABNT20 KNHC 081503
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU JUN 08 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR BELIZE IS PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA... BELIZE... WESTERN CUBA... AND MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR DUE TO ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND
INTERACTION WITH LAND. HOWEVER... AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTH
OR NORTHWESTWARD... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
MUCH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... BELIZE... GUATEMALA... AND WESTERN
CUBA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

Luis, the one you posted above was from yesterday right?

<RICKY>

[Air Force Met]

ABNT20 KNHC 081503
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU JUN 08 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR BELIZE IS PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA... BELIZE... WESTERN CUBA... AND MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR DUE TO ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND
INTERACTION WITH LAND. HOWEVER... AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTH
OR NORTHWESTWARD... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
MUCH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... BELIZE... GUATEMALA... AND WESTERN
CUBA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

That's from yesterday...

[hurricanedude]

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
Widespread cloudiness and showers over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea and adjacent land areas are associated with an area of low
pressure centered a couple hundred miles east of the Yucatan
Peninsula. This system is showing signs of organization this
morning. Despite the close proximity to land...and upper-level
winds that are only somewhat conducive for additional
development...a tropical depression could still form during the
next or two as the system moves slowly northward. An Air Force
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system
tomorrow afternoon...if necessary. Even if a tropical depression
does not form...heavy rainfall is possible during the next couple
of days over portions of Honduras...Belize...the Yucatan
Peninsula...the Cayman Islands...and western Cuba.
Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Saturday.
Forecaster Mainelli/Knabb

[Air Force Met]

ABNT20 KNHC 091524
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI JUN 09 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION THIS
MORNING. DESPITE THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND...AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS THAT ARE ONLY SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD STILL FORM DURING THE
NEXT OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. EVEN IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DOES NOT FORM...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...BELIZE...THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND WESTERN CUBA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB

[cycloneye]

634
ABNT20 KNHC 091524
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI JUN 09 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION THIS
MORNING. DESPITE THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND...AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS THAT ARE ONLY SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD STILL FORM DURING THE
NEXT OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. EVEN IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DOES NOT FORM...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...BELIZE...THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND WESTERN CUBA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB


Sorry folks,with this rush these things happen but here is the latest TWO.

[gatorcane]

yep they used the word "depression" but it is interesting they say "close proximity to land" when the LLC we are suggesting is at least a couple of 100 miles from land.