Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

[MiamiensisWx]

Or the center will reform under the convection.

I doubt it. Synoptics don't favor it. It could well reform on or just off the coastline a bit closer to the larger convective mass, but very likely not under it. The right diffluence is needed for a low center, and that is found just inland/on/just offshore the Mexico/Belize coastline vicinity.

[Rainband]

Dennis phillips said if anything thing forms it likely wont be much and it will most likely move ene and south of Florida It will increase our rain chances

[HurricaneHunter914]

Yeah but the shear is decreasing in the Caribbean.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Also, notice that the Yucatan peninsula is relatively flat...which is a plus for it maintaining itself:


http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... a_250m.jpg

[CHRISTY]

Or the center will reform under the convection.

I doubt it. Synoptics don't favor it. It could well reform on or just off the coastline a bit closer to the larger convective mass, but very likely not under it. The right diffluence is needed for a low center, and that is found just inland/on/just offshore the Mexico/Belize coastline vicinity.

several ones may form which one takes over will be key.

[Stratusxpeye]

guys development is not expected at this time....word from the NHC.low remains overland.

.

Agreed!! I'm having difficulty in beliving this will devolp to anything beyond what it is to that of possibly an area of interest (a TD) It's going to have a hard time but time shall show us.

[Wnghs2007]

And even if it did reform under the area of convection, which is not at all likely, the convection would quickly be blown back off of the center. However, that is not to say that the center could not reform closer to the convection as happens many times in weak systems like this one.

[MiamiensisWx]

Dennis phillips said if anything thing forms it likely wont be much and it will most likely move ene and south of Florida It will increase our rain chances

He is likely focusing too much on the main convective mass instead of the synoptics coming into play and the location of the actual low. I don't buy his theory that the system will drift to the north-northeast and then move east-northeast to northeast to the south of Florida.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Dennis phillips said if anything thing forms it likely wont be much and it will most likely move ene and south of Florida It will increase our rain chances

Believe me, if this thing develops it is not going to go ENE and south of Fl. Dennis Phillips obviously disagrees with every computer model, the NHC/TPC, and probably 90% of the pro mets out there if he is making that kind of claim. The good news, however, is that moisture will likely be increased over Fl as this system moves off to the NW.

[CHRISTY]

capeverdewave the GFS is forcasting a trough to come down in a couple of days.

[MiamiensisWx]

Personally, I think we may lose a lot of the main convective mass over the next 24 hours, but that we may see a formation of convection closer to the actual low, especially as the first trough is in the process of pulling out.

[Extremeweatherguy]

capeverdewave the GFS is forcasting a trough to come down in a couple of days.

the GFS is also forecasting this system to cross over into the BOC.

[Rainband]

Dennis phillips said if anything thing forms it likely wont be much and it will most likely move ene and south of Florida It will increase our rain chances

He is likely focusing too much on the main convective mass instead of the synoptics coming into play and the location of the actual low. I don't buy his theory that the system will drift to the north-northeast and then move east-northeast to northeast to the south of Florida.

No offense but he is really good and he was almost 100% right last year. He is a met and like I said no offense but I take more stock in a mets views I am sure he knows where the low will be. It's not even at the surface yet

[Nimbus]

This is a fairly broad area of surface low pressure. Surface readings of 1009 have been reported from Belize all the way northeast to Cozumel. There is some rotation in the clouds a little northeast of Belize, is this a mid level feature or is that what some of you are seeing as the surface low?

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

Cloud Top Temperatures look very slightly warmer.

[Wnghs2007]

Well finally the 18z GFS has initalized...took it long enough.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Dennis phillips said if anything thing forms it likely wont be much and it will most likely move ene and south of Florida It will increase our rain chances

He is likely focusing too much on the main convective mass instead of the synoptics coming into play and the location of the actual low. I don't buy his theory that the system will drift to the north-northeast and then move east-northeast to northeast to the south of Florida.

No offense but he is really good and he was almost 100% right last year. He is a met and like I said no offense but I take more stock in a mets views I am sure he knows where the low will be. It's not even at the surface yet

yeah but he is ONE met. I have not heard a single other met say anything like this will happen.

[MiamiensisWx]

capeverdewave the GFS is forcasting a trough to come down in a couple of days.

The trough could bypass the system as the Texas ridging slowly builds in out over the western to west-central Gulf. Also, with such weak steering currents currently in place, the system's main low and some of the convection may drift before slowly moving and getting shunted to the northwest, west, or west-northwest. It all depends on the synoptics, timing, position, and similar intertwined related factors.

[cheezyWXguy]

GASP!!! omg...i refreshed and there were no new posts now

[southerngale]

Dennis phillips said if anything thing forms it likely wont be much and it will most likely move ene and south of Florida It will increase our rain chances

Oh wow, that would be good, if it actually becomes anything. That's the first I've heard of an ENE movement.