2006 - The Year of the Invest!

[Aquawind]

On average...by the end of July we should have 2 named storms in the Atlantic. Since we had a storm in June already, I would estimate we have 1-2 storms this July.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/pastprofileAT.gif

Yep that's just named sytems..and just think of all the INVESTS we get to watch as well!!

[spinfan4eva]

You need to remember that the invests are not for the entertainment of folks on this board - they are initiated by NHC or JTWC when they have a disurbance they are interested in. When an invest is started, it triggers special data collection at a number of web sites, including the NRL and FNMOC TC web pages, UW/CIMSS, and others. These web sites provide NHC and JTWC with things like microwave data processing, and AMSU analyses over the disturbance that would not be available any other way. An invest may represent nothing more than a desire on the part of the forecaster to see microwave imagery, for example. Or in a non-tropical low, the AMSU data to investigate the development of an upper warm core.

These invests don't "cost" anything (even the disk space the imagery generates gets recycled), so who cares if a million of them get started.

True, and since they are initiated by the Navy, it could just be that an upper level low or weak tropical wave moves over an area where ships are holding excercises and they want to keep an eye on it for squally weather that would only hinder their operations. So with 95L East of the Bahamas, there could be a ship holding a missile test and they want to know the wind patterns above.

[Recurve]

Mentioned in another thread, might as well say it here too. It would help a lot of people if those who know put up a "Key to invest areas/systems" thread with just the basics like:

93L: Tropical wave near Puerto Rico around 65W 18 N.
94L Area of convection in southwest Gulf of Mexico, west of Yucatan peninsula around 95 W 22 N.
TD 5 (Was 96L): Depression, mid-Atlantic, 600 m east of Lesser Antilles around 50W 16 N.

Doesn't have to be updated more than once a day or so for location, just lock and sticky it when there's multiple systems maybe.

[caneflyer]

You need to remember that the invests are not for the entertainment of folks on this board - they are initiated by NHC or JTWC when they have a disurbance they are interested in. When an invest is started, it triggers special data collection at a number of web sites, including the NRL and FNMOC TC web pages, UW/CIMSS, and others. These web sites provide NHC and JTWC with things like microwave data processing, and AMSU analyses over the disturbance that would not be available any other way. An invest may represent nothing more than a desire on the part of the forecaster to see microwave imagery, for example. Or in a non-tropical low, the AMSU data to investigate the development of an upper warm core.

These invests don't "cost" anything (even the disk space the imagery generates gets recycled), so who cares if a million of them get started.

True, and since they are initiated by the Navy, it could just be that an upper level low or weak tropical wave moves over an area where ships are holding excercises and they want to keep an eye on it for squally weather that would only hinder their operations. So with 95L East of the Bahamas, there could be a ship holding a missile test and they want to know the wind patterns above.

Actually, they aren't initiated by the Navy, unless by that you mean the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). All Atlantic invests are initiated by NHC and only NHC. In the east Pacific, either NHC or JTWC can initiate an invest. In other global basins where NWS has no responsibility, JTWC initiates the invests.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Mentioned in another thread, might as well say it here too. It would help a lot of people if those who know put up a "Key to invest areas/systems" thread with just the basics like:

93L: Tropical wave near Puerto Rico around 65W 18 N.
94L Area of convection in southwest Gulf of Mexico, west of Yucatan peninsula around 95 W 22 N.
TD 5 (Was 96L): Depression, mid-Atlantic, 600 m east of Lesser Antilles around 50W 16 N.

Doesn't have to be updated more than once a day or so for location, just lock and sticky it when there's multiple systems maybe.

they upgraded 96L to a depression?

[Recurve]

X-weatherGuy -- That was example only -- made up names/locations.
See, it gets confusing!

[Extremeweatherguy]

X-weatherGuy -- That was example only -- made up names/locations.
See, it gets confusing!

lol. oh ok.

[CHRISTY]

Good evening guys just dropping in....Great post mike by the way!yea there has been alot of invest so far in 2006 but if shear continues no amount of hot water can save these storms.My thoughts on 2006 have changed a bit first my july expections are as follows....the jetstream pattern should keep wind shear high across the main develope regions their for iam not expecting a major huricane in july.My thoughts are we are going to see at least 2 tropical systems in the month of july 1 of them becoming a minimal hurricane but not a major.of course if this pattern changes we may see more activity then that.but i will say come august and september iam really expecting things to pick up. christy

PS! i also wanted to bring we arent good in anticipating when these kind of blocking patterns will change,sometimes they can last for the entire season.So we will see what happens in the coming weeks.