Little Bahama Mama in the Gulf

CourierPR · #41 Postby **CourierPR** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 7:09 pm

To my untrained eyes, this system appears to be getting better organized.

#42 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 7:35 pm

CMC still spinning something up
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

NOGAPS with a pretty well organized wave into florida
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... =Animation

NAM
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/nam ... 118/7.html

Nimbus · #43 Postby **Nimbus** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 7:53 pm

There is clearly a little cloud rotation near 22.5N 76W but the convection keeps getting blown off by the shear. Unfortunately I doubt if this swirl will stay naked if the shear relaxes. Whats the latest from JB on this area?

Extremeweatherguy · #44 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 7:55 pm

Nimbus wrote:There is clearly a little cloud rotation near 22.5N 76W but the convection keeps getting blown off by the shear. Unfortunately I doubt if this swirl will stay naked if the shear relaxes. Whats the latest from JB on this area?

He thinks the environment will become more favorable over the next few days.

jabber · #45 Postby **jabber** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 8:04 pm

I think in a few days this will be a footnote (if that) for 2006. To close to land... even if it gets into the gulf. But , again, what do I know

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Nimbus wrote:There is clearly a little cloud rotation near 22.5N 76W but the convection keeps getting blown off by the shear. Unfortunately I doubt if this swirl will stay naked if the shear relaxes. Whats the latest from JB on this area?
He thinks the environment will become more favorable over the next few days.

Damar91 · #46 Postby **Damar91** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 8:16 pm

CourierPR wrote:To my untrained eyes, this system appears to be getting better organized.

It might be my untrained eyes too, but in the last visable shot, it appears that there is a little swirl in the clouds. Running out of time fast, though.

boca · #47 Postby **boca** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 8:37 pm

Does anyone predict besides myself a blow up will be in order tonight or tomorrow am.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html

Damar91 · #48 Postby **Damar91** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 8:48 pm

boca wrote:Does anyone predict besides myself a blow will be in order tonight or tomorrow am.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html

I'm in!

#49 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 8:51 pm

looks like UL winds are favorable in this area....or am I wrong?

boca · #50 Postby **boca** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 9:56 pm

The Bahama Mama is a total wimpy wave that can't seem to hold together. I like JB but he hypes up too many things like this wave for example.

NONAME · #51 Postby **NONAME** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 10:01 pm

I really dont see much on any Images i dont see what you people are looking at could you please tell me.

Extremeweatherguy · #52 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 10:38 pm

it is not impressive yet, but give it a few days and things could change.

#53 Postby **storms in NC** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 10:42 pm

Don't we have a front to come thought soon?

#54 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 10:48 pm

storms in NC wrote:Don't we have a front to come thought soon?

None forecasted for 6 days..

http://www.weather.gov/outlook_tab.php

#55 Postby **storms in NC** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 11:14 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:
storms in NC wrote:Don't we have a front to come thought soon?

None forecasted for 6 days..

http://www.weather.gov/outlook_tab.php

oh

#56 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Wed Jul 12, 2006 4:15 am

Does seem to be getting persistant this am and convection still there. Could be a player, especially once it gets into the eastern GOM.

Shear has also left the building. :eek:

#57 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Wed Jul 12, 2006 4:24 am

Now into range of WSR-88D from Miami.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Nimbus · #58 Postby **Nimbus** » Wed Jul 12, 2006 5:32 am

It has a circulation but its so close to the Cuban coast that it may not develop rapidly. NHC will probably uipgrade it to a TD this morning. Doesn't look like a big threat to south Florida since it should slip through the straits in less than 24 hours.

Question is where will the bad landfall take place?
NHC likes to have the best initial track estimate they can to avoid media confusion.

jabber · #59 Postby **jabber** » Wed Jul 12, 2006 6:00 am

I am 100% sure that it will not be upgraded to anything today. The NHC does not even mention it in the 5:30 TWO. If they thought it was going to do anything they would be all over it since its so close to the coast.

Nimbus wrote:It has a circulation but its so close to the Cuban coast that it may not develop rapidly. NHC will probably uipgrade it to a TD this morning. Doesn't look like a big threat to south Florida since it should slip through the straits in less than 24 hours.

Question is where will the bad landfall take place?
NHC likes to have the best initial track estimate they can to avoid media confusion.

Nimbus · #60 Postby **Nimbus** » Wed Jul 12, 2006 6:12 am

The NHC can't ignore what is clearly a TD. They may delay calling it till they get a better handle on the track though.

Little Bahama Mama in the Gulf

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