Ex-96L Invest,Comments

Grease Monkey · #41 Postby **Grease Monkey** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 8:55 pm

Yeah the carib has been tripping lately.

#42 Postby **mvtrucking** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 8:55 pm

You have to look hard to see the circulation, but it's still there.

HurricaneMaster_PR · #43 Postby **HurricaneMaster_PR** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 9:12 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT TUE JUL 11 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
IS MOVING WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVERALL...AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...
SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

Weatherfreak14 · #44 Postby **Weatherfreak14** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 9:23 pm

Doesent look like much, but yet more impressive than others.

HurricaneHunter914 · #45 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 9:25 pm

This is on the border line of going poof, but that LLC is keeping this alive.

#46 Postby **NDG** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 9:42 pm

wxman57 wrote:
NDG wrote:You can clearly see a low or mid level circulation on the shortwave IR sat loop, centered just about where I put the L, just to the west of the small convection, my thinking that now moving at 15kts west, the convection is having a tough time to keep up with it, plus because the shear around 10-20 knots.
http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... 96Lsat.jpj

If there is any spin, I see it well to the west of the "L" in the image you posted. Probalby about 2 "Ls" to the left, just left of that small cloud element that is moving from south to north (maybe 30 miles west of your "L". Convection is dropping off tonight, and any MLC is becoming more removed from what's left of the thunderstorm that flared up this afternoon.

Well, yes, I agree, it has continued moving west, since I posted earlier, it is has been removing itself more & more from the convection earlier this evening.

#47 Postby **wxman57** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 9:47 pm

gatorcane wrote:I really can't believe how hostile the Caribbean is now....looks like January as far as the strong UL winds are concerned....

Actually, looks like a normal July there.

NONAME · #48 Postby **NONAME** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 9:48 pm

You cant just look at current shear look at shear tendencys and forecast(not always the greatest predicting shear)If you want to see if it will have a favorable enviorment.

Thunder44 · #49 Postby **Thunder44** » Wed Jul 12, 2006 4:29 am

Statement as of 5:30 am EDT on July 12, 2006

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
A tropical wave located about 220 miles east of the Windward Islands
is moving westward at 15 to 20 mph. This system is producing only
minimal thunderstorm activity...and development appears unlikely.
Tropical storm formation is not expected through Thursday.
$$
Forecaster Blake/Knabb

#50 Postby **abajan** » Wed Jul 12, 2006 5:05 am

Anyway, it looks like Barbados will get some welcome showers from it later today.
Works for me! 8-)

#51 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Jul 12, 2006 6:10 am

96L, OUT OF THE WAY, NEXT!!!

#52 Postby **drezee** » Wed Jul 12, 2006 6:11 am

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W SOUTH OF 15N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER FROM SIX HOURS AGO
NO LONGER IS ALONG THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN
55W AND 57W.

I believe that after the morning visibles the NHC may want to rethink that statement about the lack of low pressure.

The structure has elongated a bit N to S due to the easterly surge behind it.

beachbum_al · #53 Postby **beachbum_al** » Wed Jul 12, 2006 6:17 am

I don't think I would write this one off yet. Yes, it is not in an area for development at the present time but if it keeps going it might end up in one. It doesn't seem to completely fizzle out and goes through this everyday. Actually I thought it would fizzle out way before now but it is like the wave that doesn't stop. It keeps on going and going and going. Of course I could be wrong in my thoughts too.

#54 Postby **drezee** » Wed Jul 12, 2006 6:36 am

We have about 3 good visible frames this morning and I vote for Classification within 24 hours. You be the judge!

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=4

Code: Select all

Possible declassification soon after

#55 Postby **drezee** » Wed Jul 12, 2006 6:41 am

drezee 1532 EDT 07/11/06 wrote:My opinion is a bit different than most on this system. I find it hard to believe that this system will not develop. The low level structure has improved remarkable since yesterday at this time...in spite of the lack of convection. If we can get any I mean any sustained convection this will become a Classified Tropical Cyclone. Unlike 93L which had very small LLCs with little influence, this system has a average envelope. The upper ridge is starting to catch up with it...if only for a time. If it is going to go at all...It should blow its top tonight.

I see no reason to change my thinking from yesterday. It has taken some strides this morning and the structure is still sound.

#56 Postby **skysummit** » Wed Jul 12, 2006 6:41 am

Hey drezee...this little one just doesn't want to give up! I'm very impressed with the amount of energy that's associated with this wave. In these harsh conditions, most cirulations would've just about dissapated, however, this one keeps finding ways to regenerate convection somehow.

It has decent low level convergence and vorticity also. However, it's entering an area of 40kt shear later. That'll be the real test for it.

#57 Postby **drezee** » Wed Jul 12, 2006 6:48 am

Another view:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

Closeup

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

Thunder44 · #58 Postby **Thunder44** » Wed Jul 12, 2006 7:01 am

Although it's very small, it definitely looks like it trying to get better organized this morning. You can see the little cluster of thunderstorms it has moved over the LLC seen on visible imagery. It seems that upper-level shear has relaxed somewhat over it this morning but it increase could again later today as it moves westward.

#59 Postby **tailgater** » Wed Jul 12, 2006 7:02 am

drezee wrote:
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W SOUTH OF 15N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER FROM SIX HOURS AGO
NO LONGER IS ALONG THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN
55W AND 57W.

I believe that after the morning visibles the NHC may want to rethink that statement about the lack of low pressure.

The structure has elongated a bit N to S due to the easterly surge behind it.

Looks better each time I see it Sure it's sheared but it's gotten better organized in this environment, so if can any better upper levels in the near future it'll become Beryl.

#60 Postby **skysummit** » Wed Jul 12, 2006 7:11 am

An early morning shot from LSU's low cloud product:

LSU Imagery

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