Invest 99L E of Lesser Antilles,Comments,Sat Pics,Etc #3

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wxman57
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#41 Postby wxman57 » Sun Jul 30, 2006 7:00 am

ROCK wrote:I agree....though 99L looks to be consolidating more North ATTM. Maybe WX57 was on to something with a change in structure. Looks to be doing just that. The other one has lost some of its punch. Will be interesting to see if it maintains or continues to fizzle over night.


It would appear that the disturbance has undergone a significant change overnight. The rotation around 9N has dissipated. Remember that I had commented that it looked like an inverted tropical wave for the past few days? Looks more like a moderate to strong tropical wave now, but it's no longer inverted. I think the place to keep an eye on is near 13N/51W, up closer to the crest of the wave rather than down by 10.5N/50W (point where the 6Z models were initialized. But I see no rotation up there. That boundary that raced northward last evening is still racing northward. Convection is very minimal, as convergence is low. Certainly no development today. Looks very much like the wave ahead of it in the eastern Caribbean but with less convection.
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#42 Postby MortisFL » Sun Jul 30, 2006 7:19 am

The wave is heading into some weak SAL as it approaches the islands.
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#43 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 30, 2006 7:20 am

GFDL

:uarrow: :uarrow:

Above is the GFDL model that now develops 99L.
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#44 Postby jusforsean » Sun Jul 30, 2006 7:29 am

looks like it might visit
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#45 Postby Bane » Sun Jul 30, 2006 7:31 am

Queston is if it does develop and moves in the general direction that the GFDL sends it, does the trough grab it and push it out to sea or send it up the east coast, or miss it completely?
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#46 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 30, 2006 7:37 am

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 99L

INITIAL TIME 6Z JUL 30

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 10.3 49.8 285./18.0
6 11.1 51.7 293./20.0
12 11.6 53.1 293./14.8
18 11.9 54.5 281./13.8
24 12.3 55.7 288./12.8
30 13.3 57.0 309./15.7
36 14.1 58.3 299./15.3
42 14.5 59.7 287./13.6
48 14.9 61.1 286./14.7
54 15.4 62.5 290./14.4
60 16.2 63.7 301./13.6
66 16.4 65.3 277./15.4
72 16.8 66.8 284./14.7
78 17.3 68.1 294./13.7
84 17.8 69.3 293./12.3
90 18.3 70.1 298./ 8.7
96 18.8 71.4 293./13.7
102 19.9 72.0 332./11.8
108 20.5 72.7 314./ 9.3
114 21.3 73.0 333./ 8.2
120 22.0 73.9 309./11.5
126 23.0 74.8 319./12.7

Above is the text of the GFDL run that I posted in above post as a loop and develops 99L.
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#47 Postby rockyman » Sun Jul 30, 2006 7:38 am

Another view of 00z GFDL:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfd ... 000/2.html
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#48 Postby Thunder44 » Sun Jul 30, 2006 7:39 am

So much for the people who suggested this wave was not going to clear South America. :wink:
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#49 Postby drezee » Sun Jul 30, 2006 7:44 am

WHXX01 KWBC 301242
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992006) ON 20060730 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060730 1200 060731 0000 060731 1200 060801 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.0N 51.5W 12.8N 54.0W 13.3N 56.2W 13.7N 58.4W
BAMM 12.0N 51.5W 13.2N 54.1W 14.2N 56.4W 15.0N 58.5W
A98E 12.0N 51.5W 13.3N 54.7W 14.3N 57.6W 15.4N 60.2W
LBAR 12.0N 51.5W 13.1N 54.5W 14.2N 57.6W 15.2N 60.4W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 27KTS 28KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 27KTS 28KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060801 1200 060802 1200 060803 1200 060804 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.1N 60.6W 15.1N 65.5W 16.2N 69.6W 16.7N 73.0W
BAMM 15.8N 60.5W 17.1N 64.1W 18.2N 67.3W 18.8N 70.4W
A98E 16.4N 62.5W 18.8N 67.4W 21.1N 72.0W 23.2N 76.3W
LBAR 16.2N 63.1W 17.7N 67.7W 19.7N 71.0W 20.1N 73.2W
SHIP 30KTS 36KTS 42KTS 49KTS
DSHP 30KTS 36KTS 39KTS 32KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.0N LONCUR = 51.5W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 18KT
LATM12 = 10.0N LONM12 = 48.2W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 = 19KT
LATM24 = 9.2N LONM24 = 44.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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#50 Postby wxwatcher91 » Sun Jul 30, 2006 7:45 am

here are the last three positions
30/1145 UTC 11.2N 51.6W TOO WEAK 99L
30/0545 UTC 10.8N 50.2W TOO WEAK 99L
29/2345 UTC 9.1N 48.0W TOO WEAK 99L
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#51 Postby storms in NC » Sun Jul 30, 2006 7:45 am

Good Morning. So what is today going to bring us?
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#52 Postby drezee » Sun Jul 30, 2006 7:49 am

I believe the LLC is further N. the image below is an indicator of my thoughts...

Image
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#53 Postby wxman57 » Sun Jul 30, 2006 7:54 am

drezee wrote:I believe the LLC is further N. the image below is an indicator of my thoughts...

Image


While I agree the place to look for possible development is farther north, there does not appear to be any LLC, just an open wave. I don't think it qualifies as an "Invest" any longer, unless the wave ahead of it and the wave near Africa are also declared "Invests", as both are stronger.

By the way, where is that thread with our hurricane predictions for 2006?
Last edited by wxman57 on Sun Jul 30, 2006 7:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#54 Postby Thunder44 » Sun Jul 30, 2006 7:55 am

drezee wrote:I believe the LLC is further N. the image below is an indicator of my thoughts...

Image


I was just taking a look at the latest visibles. I agree with you and wxman57 analysis this morning. The focus of this system's potential development will be further north.
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#55 Postby kenl01 » Sun Jul 30, 2006 7:56 am

Keep in mind that models increase a northeast shear across the Lesser Antilles and eastern Caribbean Monday and Tuesday which could be counterproductive to the future of this wave early next week. So even if slow development does occur, it would be at best a weak TD.
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#56 Postby HenkL » Sun Jul 30, 2006 7:58 am

Buoy 41041 reported S wind (170 degrees) at 12Z.
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#57 Postby wxman57 » Sun Jul 30, 2006 8:00 am

kenl01 wrote:Keep in mind that models increase a northeast shear across the Lesser Antilles and eastern Caribbean Monday and Tuesday which could be counterproductive to the future of this wave early next week. So even if slow development does occur, it would be at best a weak TD.


I was about to make that point. If this system tracks much farther northwest then it'll run right into the TUTT, and some very strong shear. I think it'll track westward just like the wave ahead of it. As it crosses the eastern Caribbean, thunderstorms will flare up to the north, southeast of the TUTT. But the storms will die out as the wave continues westward.
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#58 Postby drezee » Sun Jul 30, 2006 8:01 am

HenkL wrote:Buoy 41041 reported S wind (170 degrees) at 12Z.


That confirms the outflow boundary...
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#59 Postby wxman57 » Sun Jul 30, 2006 8:02 am

HenkL wrote:Buoy 41041 reported S wind (170 degrees) at 12Z.


Remember that northward-moving boundary I noted last evening? It's reached that buoy. There is some low-level boundary tracking northward through the system. Not good for development.
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#60 Postby wxman57 » Sun Jul 30, 2006 8:03 am

drezee wrote:
HenkL wrote:Buoy 41041 reported S wind (170 degrees) at 12Z.


That confirms the outflow boundary...


Beat me to it! ;-)
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