Where will Chris go?

[HurricaneJim]

Yup...hot water.

Galveston is a long, long drive...

Jim
http://www.myspace.com/hurricanejim
http://www.myspace.com/stormchasetroopers

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

Somewhere west of 90...my gut call right now.

JB is singing...in the words of Glen Campbell..."Galveston, Oh Galveston."

Given it is at 18N already...and still moving WNW...I think it will survive Hispanola. Cuba might ding it...but the GOM will build it back.

I think so too. He might have to reorganize and get his act back together, if Cuba and/or Hispaniola do to much damage, but unfortunately.. there will be plenty of time in the GOM for restrengthening or further strenghtening.

[Ivanhater]

Interesting read on Dereks blog for the Pensacola news journal

http://www.pensacolanewsjournal.com/blo ... ndex.shtml

[Cape Verde]

Somewhere west of 90...my gut call right now.

JB is singing...in the words of Glen Campbell..."Galveston, Oh Galveston."

It's way too early to predict landfall, of course, but after the Rita evacuation debacle last year, very few people in the Houston area will leave, is my guess. We killed over 100 people and made it a living hell for millions more who simply were stranded with cars out of gas.

Houston/Galveston will underreact to the next threat.

[Bailey1777]

AFM as I said yesterday I really appreciate your expertiese. We are obviously from the same area so I ask you is a Galveston area hit looking that probable? That just seems like a very long way for a storm to travel without finding a weakness and heading North.

[HouTXmetro]

Somewhere west of 90...my gut call right now.

JB is singing...in the words of Glen Campbell..."Galveston, Oh Galveston."

Given it is at 18N already...and still moving WNW...I think it will survive Hispanola. Cuba might ding it...but the GOM will build it back.

You can't be serious, this is disturbing if he thinks he can pinpoint a landfall this far out. I can understand saying a certain region will be under the gun but he loses alot of credit with me if he is already tooting a landfall in a major metropolitan area this far out.

[Cape Verde]

Heck, if there is still serious debate whether it will hit Hispanola or Cuba, anyone pinpointing a final landfall 8 days away is just goofing with us.

[vbhoutex]

AFM as I said yesterday I really appreciate your expertiese. We are obviously from the same area so I ask you is a Galveston area hit looking that probable? That just seems like a very long way for a storm to travel without finding a weakness and heading North.

It is a long way for a storm to travel and not find a weakness. However the ridge is expected to build in and extend far West into the GOM as time progresses. There aren't any troughs or other disturbances making it far enough South to make a dent in that ridge either. I don't like the scenario that is starting to take shape either, but at this point in time, which I know is far far out to even say anything, it appears to me that Western GOMers will be watching Chris very closely in about 7 days. I am praying that before Chris makes it too far West(ie before the Bahamas even)he does find a weakness to sneak into and head N into the Atlantic.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Steve Lyons on TWC is talking about a more southerly track as well.

Steve Lyons pretty much just goes with what NHC says.

[Bailey1777]

Thanks vb. And let me take this chance to say I just discovered this sight yesterday and it is hands down the best. We appreciate all you'll do.

[ROCK]

AFM as I said yesterday I really appreciate your expertiese. We are obviously from the same area so I ask you is a Galveston area hit looking that probable? That just seems like a very long way for a storm to travel without finding a weakness and heading North.

It is a long way for a storm to travel and not find a weakness. However the ridge is expected to build in and extend far West into the GOM as time progresses. There aren't any troughs or other disturbances making it far enough South to make a dent in that ridge either. I don't like the scenario that is starting to take shape either, but at this point in time, which I know is far far out to even say anything, it appears to me that Western GOMers will be watching Chris very closely in about 7 days. I am praying that before Chris makes it too far West(ie before the Bahamas even)he does find a weakness to sneak into and head N into the Atlantic.

some good points VB........

[HurricaneJim]

"However the ridge is expected to build in and extend far West into the GOM as time progresses. There aren't any troughs or other disturbances making it far enough South to make a dent in that ridge either."

Yup......


Jim
http://www.myspace.com/hurricanejim
http://www.myspace.com/stormchasetroopers

[perk]

Bailey1777 you truly did discovery a great tropical weather forum.

[Rainband]

Way too early.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

So you're thinking of more of a Texas hit KFDM? What about the possibility of the ULL hanging out in the western GOM? Wouldn't that block a westward progression of Chris? Just wondering on your thoughts.

It will follow the upper low if the high to the north is where i think it will be.

[LaBreeze]

Thanks for the reply KF. How far west is that high supposed to build? Any ideas?

[LightningInTheEye]

Hey, KFDM Meteorologist, was that 18Z GFS computer model (which was "hinting" Miami area and then southern Texas) you were commenting on not that reliable? because the new forecast track from the NHC suggests nothing near a northerly track.

[Bailey1777]

Our weather guy just said that the upper low will come in here in Houston Sunday.

[Clint_TX]

This is a bad time for a storm to be coming west..at least in a selfish sense....although LA could be in play since the system is so far north...in my uneducated opinion...all that hot west coast weather last week had me nervous...darn

[Indystorm]

The intensification today seems to have surprised a number of people. Tough to initialize a storm in its earliest stages though. I favor a track through the Florida straits into the gulf. I usually don't visit storm 2k too much except during hurricane season, but you certainly have the most extensive and informative coverage for hurricanes of any site anywhere both for forecasts and input from posters in the areas possibly affected. Keep up the good work!