South Florida is Watching Chris Closely

[FloridaDiver]

Sorry don’t buy the slight model shift north at this time, however, your point is taken, if the trend continues for the next 24 to 48 hours, then your scenario may materialize.…. For now, I’m still going to predict Chris does a tight-rope crossing of the Florida Straights and into the GOM…

[gatorcane]

Looks to me the convection still is moving NW. Do you see that? The system is definitely gaining lattitude.

We need to really watch this. Any system that is ESE of the peninsula could mean trouble. Just a little more weakness and it could be trouble.

[FloridaDiver]

Looks to me the convection still is moving NW. Do you see that? The system is definitely gaining lattitude.

We need to really watch this. Any system that is ESE of the peninsula could mean trouble. Just a little more weakness and it could be trouble.

Yep, looking at the sat sweeps from google maps there appears to be a NW movement, could be the expected daily "wobble", there is currently two planes either in route or already observing Chris (see thread), interesting to see the newest model runs tomorrow...

[gatorcane]

Looks to me the convection still is moving NW. Do you see that? The system is definitely gaining lattitude.

We need to really watch this. Any system that is ESE of the peninsula could mean trouble. Just a little more weakness and it could be trouble.

Yep, looking at the sat sweeps from google maps there appears to be a NW movement, could be the expected daily "wobble", there is currently two planes either in route or already observing Chris (see thread), interesting to see the newest model runs tomorrow...

My point to all in South Florida is DO NOT FOCUS ON THE LINE - just a little wobble and the track is thrown off completely....

[sfwx]

The storms over the past two years should've have taught us all a lesson on being prepared. If the storm comes your way you are ready, if not no big deal. You'll be ready for the next one. We should start getting use to this, it sounds like it will be an active cycle for the next several years.

Eric

[hial2]

Just a small Jog a were in the eye remember andrews path switched counties and it was too late for those who didnt prepare to do so, in a mobile home we leave no matter what but we are in prep mode, although in the case around here tropic storm winds could be bad for the tarps that still fly around here.

Quote from an Ed Rappaport report,NHC archives...Sound familiar??

Between the 17th and 20th of August, the tropical storm passed south of the center of the high pressure area over the eastern Atlantic. Steering currents carried Andrew closer to a strong upper-level low pressure system centered about 500 n mi to the east-southeast of Bermuda and to a trough that extended southward from the low for a few hundred miles. These currents gradually changed and Andrew decelerated on a course which became northwesterly. This change in heading spared the Lesser Antilles from an encounter with Andrew. The change in track also brought the tropical storm into an environment of strong southwesterly vertical wind shear and quite high surface pressures to its north.