Tropical Depression#5,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #5

[KFDM Meteorologist]

I hope the new GFS is right!! The 00Z Gfs is showing a weak front working to the gulf coast next Wednesday keeping Ernesto madril LOL east of Texas on this new run.

[gatorcane]

I agree, Josh, but I did want to point out that the Florida Keys are now in the 5 day cone

Rocky,
How right you are. I didn't mean to leave out the keys, I was being egocentric and referring to my part of Florida Which I guess at current speed would be day 6 and not 7. TExas day 8 or so. I was trying to make a point not necessarily related to specifics of a forecast.

Rainband and Psychlone thanks for the kind words about BN9.

HI Josh, Florida needs to watch any troughs that could pull it north or a weaker ridge. Thus far this summer the ridge has been quite weak. In fact here in South Florida the flow is west to east with the T-storms. Not a good sign for strong ridge.....

[weatherrabbit_tx]

Let the media frenzy begin!

We are almost at the Katrina anniversary and there are already news people in NO talking about this!

oh boy the media frenzy, I'm sure it will start here in the houston tv/radio market very soon like this weekend

[KFDM Meteorologist]

The new GFS is showing possible Florida, but gosh the system is so far south.

[gatorcane]

The new GFS is showing possible Florida, but gosh the system is so far south.

I live here in South Florida and monitor the weather daily. This whole week very weak ridging with storms moving from west to east....

I hope this "supposed ridge" builds in quick or that GFS track wouldn't surprise me one bit.

[PTPatrick]

I am really not liking what I am hearing tonight...the shifts northward in the models. I am afraid at this point it just seems too unlikely for anything to come along swing this think NEward ala Charley. And it definately seems like lots of models are trending with a more NW track. The new GFDL was chilling...despite the fact that it has sucked eggs for a few runs now. If there is indeed a front to catch this before texas...god bless all those in the areas that have been raked by Rita, Katrina, Ivan in Dennis. But if that holds true, and this storm in deed survives to see a day in the NW Carrib...then it sounds like a good chance of a Northern GOM hit...Sheesh

I have many days of nailbiting, and I live in Denver now. Just worry for my folks

[KFDM Meteorologist]

I still have some more GFS data to analyze. But at the surface it brings Ernesto to western Cuba and it slows, then turns north and sits off the west coast of Florida. I need to analyze the upper air and i'll post in about 15 minutes..

[gatorcane]

I am really not liking what I am hearing tonight...the shifts northward in the models. I am afraid at this point it just seems too unlikely for anything to come along swing this think NEward ala Charley. And it definately seems like lots of models are trending with a more NW track. The new GFDL was chilling...despite the fact that it has sucked eggs for a few runs now. If there is indeed a front to catch this before texas...god bless all those in the areas that have been raked by Rita, Katrina, Ivan in Dennis. But if that holds true, and this storm in deed survives to see a day in the NW Carrib...then it sounds like a good chance of a Northern GOM hit...Sheesh

I have many days of nailbiting, and I live in Denver now. Just worry for my folks

Check out the new GFS track - it has shifted more to the right and now takes it into Florida.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

I'm fixing to analyze the new GFS upper air. Saw that at the surface.

[gatorcane]

I still have some more GFS data to analyze. But at the surface it brings Ernesto to western Cuba and it slows, then turns north and sits off the west coast of Florida. I need to analyze the upper air and i'll post in about 15 minutes..

What!???!

Holy Crap!

That will sure get the Florida posters going...

[PTPatrick]

Can you post a link please...the one I have is old

[Wx_Warrior]

thanks bro!

[AtlanticWind]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ Check out Cmc OOz

[fci]

The new GFS is showing possible Florida, but gosh the system is so far south.

I live here in South Florida and monitor the weather daily. This whole week very weak ridging with storms moving from west to east....

I hope this "supposed ridge" builds in quick or that GFS track wouldn't surprise me one bit.

Can you provide the link to the GFS you are referring to?
On the one I am getting to I don't even see it (must have the wrong one...)

[KFDM Meteorologist]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_156l.gif

This is next Thursday morning

[AtlanticWind]

CMC Takes Just off the keys and than to the panhandle

[gatorcane]

Oh man....models are now coming into more agreement on a big weakness in the ridge!!!!!!!!

This is huge. Now Florida is very much in trouble...

CMC and GFS are now pulling it up the West Coast of Florida

[Rainband]

CMC is east too

[miamicanes177]

you guys are talking about the 12Z run of cmc I assume. That 12Z was using old data with the old center.
edit...nevermind i see that cmc is just in

[gatorcane]

CMC is east too

Watch this one Rainband....models are definitely shifting now and Ernesto could be one of those "hook" storms that get pulled north very close or through the west coast of Florida - early to say but wow those models see something now they didn't see earlier