TS Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread XI (#11)

[gatorcane]

yep folks the ridge is weak and its deepening and so Ernesto wants to move poleward. That combined with the TUTT flow to the ENE is causing it to want to gain lattitude......

[ConvergenceZone]

Storm is well north. I suggest it will continue doing this.

(Message is ridge is weak)

then a fish storm it will be...

There are other landmasses besides the U.S.

I just mean after it crosses Cuba(fish) IF it continues to move right all of the time like some people on here think......It really doesn't matter, because even if it heads towards south florida, all they will get out of it would be a weak tropical storm, because they are protected by Cuba.

[JonathanBelles]

can we elinate quoting for bandwith''s sake?

[Sanibel]

The lee-side of Hispaniola can do weird things to storm tracks because it serves like a block to the ridge to the north. It could very well be WNW still under the guiding ridge. We'll see how it tracks over the next 12 hours. Jamaica has a lee-side quirk too.


I don't think "Convergence" is interpreting what I'm saying correctly.

[Normandy]

Please tell me u guys really dont think this will be a fish....

*shakes head*

[Toadstool]

What a difference a day makes. We're just about out of the cone now. GREAT NEWS, although I don't feel totally safe yet.

Yes, it looks like Bush will be able to visit New Orleans after all for the Katrina anniversary if the track keeps moving east.

[Mac]

Good lord, people. The LLC relocated. That does not = the storm changed course. Until the convection centers over the LLC, it may APPEAR that the storm is on a different heading, but it is not the direction of the convection but the direction of the LLC that determines the track of the storm. Give it some time. The models are crap right now because they are initialized off of bad information. There won't be any reliable information until a model run takes place that has been initialized off of correct information. In other words, this thing is going to have to settle down and stay on a heading for a little while first. So sit back and relax. Ernie ain't a fish and you may in fact see the models swing back west yet. Only time will tell.

[Scorpion]

What is this ridge everybody is talking about. Just look at the SAT pics, still looks like it is trying to creep NNW to me (at least the convection looks to be doing this).

There is some weakness Ernesto is seeing. I don't know where but there is something.

Has this not been said a million times? It's a center reformation.

[gatorcane]

Good lord, people. The LLC relocated. That does not = the storm changed course. Until the convection centers over the LLC, it may APPEAR that the storm is on a different heading, but it is not the direction of the convection but the direction of the LLC that determines the track of the storm. Give it some time. The models are crap right now because they are initialized off of bad information. There won't be any reliable information until a model run takes place that has been initialized off of correct information. In other words, this thing is going to have to settle down and stay on a heading for a little while first. So sit back and relax. Ernie ain't a fish and you may in fact see the models swing back west yet. Only time will tell.

Did you read:

HOW
MUCH OF THIS IS DUE TO RE-FORMATION OF THE CENTER AND HOW MUCH IS
DUE TO AN ACTUAL TRACK CHANGE IS UNCLEAR.

[Bailey1777]

Dude its not heading poleward it is heading the same direction it has for the past 2 days. You cannot will it that way. There is a recon in there right now that says WNW.

[Timedrifter]

50 miles further north than the NHC track means this storm will have to cross land for 50 or even 100 miles. Could make a big difference in strength at least in the medium term.

[LanceW]

The discussion mentioned it may have been a center relocation, or a course change, they were not sure. It is anyone's guess where it's heading.

[gatorcane]

Dude its not heading poleward it is heading the same direction it has for the past 2 days. You cannot will it that way. There is a recon in there right now that says WNW.

look at the big picture. Where it was 2 days ago and now. It has definitely gained serious lattitude......

[Stormcenter]

Ernesto is starting to have that nasty (buzz saw) look to it.
Not good!!!!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

[pcwick]

When you offer an opinion, will you please offer some rationale? Some basis for your opinion. The pages of clutter are a waste of my time.


http://www.stormdancing.net/network/jav ... torm2k.htm

[KatDaddy]

At this point TX is safe........Whew!.................but I truley feel for the NE GOM. Ivan II...........God I hope not for you guys. Its just not fair.

[BensonTCwatcher]

The ridge is building down as expected. This storm will not take a major jump off the NHC track and we all know that. The forecast beyond 36 hours is where it starts to get really tricky. It seems it's al based on the strenght of the ridge. Note it building down the fL peninsula.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12

But, look at where its going to be in 72 hrs

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW.gif

If that front erodes the western edge of the ridge (at around 30N) we could have a big bend hurricane.

[Derek Ortt]

some of the posts here border on misinformation

track east of Miami... thats even more bizarre than the GFS solution

[x-y-no]

THe 18Z run of the GFS is just beginning to come out.

The initialization doesn't look quite as bad as for the 12Z, but still not so good. It has a 1008mb surface low, but well SSE of where it out to be. The 850mv vortmax is reasonably well placed but looks weak. And it still has a bit of a weakness (sort of a pocket) in the mid-level ridge right over Hispaniola. Overall, the mid-level ridge initialized somewhat stronger than it did in the 12Z.

The run is only complete to 6 hours and the mid-level ridge alredy looks to be backing off, which seems too fast (that's back to the old habits of the GFS from years past). We'll see if it keeps it up or not.

[ConvergenceZone]

Good lord, people. The LLC relocated. That does not = the storm changed course. Until the convection centers over the LLC, it may APPEAR that the storm is on a different heading, but it is not the direction of the convection but the direction of the LLC that determines the track of the storm. Give it some time. The models are crap right now because they are initialized off of bad information. There won't be any reliable information until a model run takes place that has been initialized off of correct information. In other words, this thing is going to have to settle down and stay on a heading for a little while first. So sit back and relax. Ernie ain't a fish and you may in fact see the models swing back west yet. Only time will tell.

and yes I agree that it won't be a fish. I'm just saying that because the "fish" posts will start soon due to the fact that people keep trying to bring it further and further east and you can't bring it any further east without it being a fish, basically that's all I'm saying.

Here's the main point. It's still moving in the same direction, and every hour that passes by where it moves in the same direction, lessens the threat to southern Florida. Next hour it will be less of a threat than it is this hour as long as it continues in this direction.