WRF-ARW forecast for Ernesto

bayoubebe · #41 Postby **bayoubebe** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 7:43 pm

Stratosphere747 wrote:It just has a rather huge westward bias towards the latter part of the run. Heading more toward NE Mexico/S Texas.

As of now, I would not put much faith into it...

I see.

Thanks for the reply.

ROCK · #42 Postby **ROCK** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 7:46 pm

bayoubebe wrote:So, for us simpletons, what does this mean exactly?

Where will it hit according to THIS model at landfall for the US?

again this is one run of a left outlier....I don't put a lot of stock into it nor do I with the NAM. I usually go with the consensus of al the models.......

Extremeweatherguy · #43 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 7:48 pm

GFDN has now shifted westward as well.

And the overall model consensus is now further west too.

LaBreeze · #44 Postby **LaBreeze** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 7:58 pm

How far west are we talking now? Flip/Flop Flip/Flop - I figured that there would and will be more flipflopping.

#45 Postby **skysummit** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 8:00 pm

I think I'm just going to wear my flip flops tonight so I can join in with the models.

ROCK · #46 Postby **ROCK** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 8:01 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:GFDN has now shifted westward as well.

And the overall model consensus is now further west too.

I see that EWG.....hmmm I wonder why the shift eventhough the center has been forming N and E all day.

#47 Postby **Wpwxguy** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 8:01 pm

Flip Flopping is par for the course . Look for more in the coming days.

Extremeweatherguy · #48 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 8:01 pm

skysummit wrote:I think I'm just going to wear my flip flops tonight so I can join in with the models.

good idea. lol.

ROCK · #49 Postby **ROCK** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 8:02 pm

LaBreeze wrote:How far west are we talking now? Flip/Flop Flip/Flop - I figured that there would and will be more flipflopping.

little more west than earlier....might go east tonight then west tomorrow.....hows that for a firm answer.... :lol:

Extremeweatherguy · #50 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 8:03 pm

ROCK wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:GFDN has now shifted westward as well.

And the overall model consensus is now further west too.

I see that EWG.....hmmm I wonder why the shift eventhough the center has been forming N and E all day.

may be the weakness isn't suppose to be as strong? I really don't know. I don't think it has been moving NE today though, I think more of WNW to NW today.

bayoubebe · #51 Postby **bayoubebe** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 8:04 pm

skysummit wrote:I think I'm just going to wear my flip flops tonight so I can join in with the models.

I'm fixing to take a dramamine for the dizziness.

Goodness, it has changed so much just today it is hard to remember what the predictions were for this morning. :?:

Stratosphere747 · #52 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 8:04 pm

Good answer Rock....

Let's see how this model handles the benchmarks I mentioned..

We all knew that there would be changes from model to model. The disco at 11 will give us some insight to any change.

#53 Postby **Portastorm** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 8:07 pm

Strat, Rock ... count me in. I'm totally in agreement that we should consider some benchmarks and then see how all of these models are doing. That will tell us a lot, methinks.

ROCK · #54 Postby **ROCK** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 8:09 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
ROCK wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:GFDN has now shifted westward as well.

And the overall model consensus is now further west too.

I see that EWG.....hmmm I wonder why the shift eventhough the center has been forming N and E all day.
may be the weakness isn't suppose to be as strong? I really don't know. I don't think it has been moving NE today though, I think more of WNW to NW today.

EWG, I meant the reformation of the center.....but yes WNW or NW today.

LaBreeze · #55 Postby **LaBreeze** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 8:10 pm

I've got my flip-flops on and waiting.

ROCK · #56 Postby **ROCK** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 8:17 pm

Portastorm wrote:Strat, Rock ... count me in. I'm totally in agreement that we should consider some benchmarks and then see how all of these models are doing. That will tell us a lot, methinks.

Interesting to note, in Derek's latest forecast he went off of this model for his projected path which is westward somewhat....lets see if it verifies....no doubt it is seeing a stronger ridge as does the NAM...

LaBreeze · #57 Postby **LaBreeze** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 10:48 pm

Obviously the ridge is not expected to be that strong or else we would have more mets in agreement and the models would be picking up on this, don't you guys think so?

Acral · #58 Postby **Acral** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 10:58 pm

I think the ridge or more to the point the uncertainty of it is a hugfe stumbling block in the models, and soon, we have land mass issues to further complicate things.

#59 Postby **WxGuy1** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:02 pm

Wasn't it the 12km WRF-ARW that nearly nailed the Katrina forecast last year? The simulated reflectivity was absolutely remarkable beyond 48hrs, picking up the lop-sided-ness it acquired as it neared land. I think the timing was off by several hours, but it was a remarkable forecast and verification.

I'm going to search around the NCAR/UCAR site to see if I can verify this.

milankovitch · #60 Postby **milankovitch** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:04 pm

ROCK wrote:
Portastorm wrote:Strat, Rock ... count me in. I'm totally in agreement that we should consider some benchmarks and then see how all of these models are doing. That will tell us a lot, methinks.

Interesting to note, in Derek's latest forecast he went off of this model for his projected path which is westward somewhat....lets see if it verifies....no doubt it is seeing a stronger ridge as does the NAM...

http://hurricane.methaz.org/tracking/op ... _perf.html

Here you go

WRF-ARW forecast for Ernesto

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