let this be a lesson....

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
bayoubebe
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 313
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 11:39 pm
Location: NOLA

#41 Postby bayoubebe » Wed Aug 30, 2006 10:31 am

fci wrote:
bayoubebe wrote:
Wx_Warrior wrote:Boy, aint that the truth..I am sooooo tired of hearing Texas and NO that gets my stomach churning but nothing will change...

As soon as one pops up the same ol will be doing the same ol song and dance. :na:


I guess you missed all the Floridians -removed-?

Look, it's inevitable there are "people I disagree with" for practically every state that has a chance of being hit.

Personally, I found "SOME" of the Floridians to be the worse, and way before it was predicted that Ernesto was going to hit them.

Some particular posters, I swear were praying that it would be a major hurricane hit them too, very evident in the posting.

Now, I bet they are all thanking God or whoever it is they thank that Ernesto was no worse than it could have been.

I didn't want him, don't want the next.

Hurricanes are exciting to watch, not so fun being hit by them.

I do thank GOD and have been praying and will continue to pray for a safe hurricane season.


Well, you apparently have a technique to "selectively read" posts.
There is just as much, if not more; -removed- by the Texas group as the Florida group.
And the LA group has calmed it down from prior years since they were tragically savaged by Katrina last year.
And those in NC/SC and VA do their share.

For my money, those along the GOM seem the loudest as it seems like EVERY storm is said to be a "GOM'er"!!!

See how ridiculous I sound???

That's because most S2K'ers enjoy the chase of the storms and the adrenaline rush of thinking that "this storm or Invest" will be theirs.
Not that they want it. But they want the chase that inevitably ends up not coming to them. And they are thankful that it does not come to them.

-removed- is a by product of following the Tropics.
If every storm were a fish only a few would follow them.
If every storm went to the GOM only those on the GOM would follow them, except for the few who truly just want to watch and follow them.
And so on and so forth

Morale of the story???
PLEASE STOP ACCUSING MEMBERS OF -removed-!!!!

Everyone does it in some manner so please stop accusing any select group of doing it as it is not exclusive to any specific group.

(climbing off of soapbox)


uhh, Texas was already mentioned in wx warrior's post which I quoted and replied to.

I ADDED Foridians and was sure to capitalize the word 'SOME."

Maybe you should go back and read what I posted, you obviously missed this part too:

"Look, it's inevitable there are "people I disagree with" for practically every state that has a chance of being hit."

And I'm sorry if I hit a nerve with you, but the posts(facts) are there, when Ernesto was happening, there was some really bad"-removed-" by a certain selective few Floridians.

When wx warrior decided to call out TX AND NOLA, I thought it should be pointed out what was happening at the PRESENT time.

It was making me sick, as I have been through Katrina.

[/soap box off]


I'm getting bored with this nonsense, I'd rather be watching the Tropics. :)
0 likes   

User avatar
HurricaneJim
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 136
Joined: Thu Aug 26, 2004 9:26 pm
Location: Rucksack, somewhere
Contact:

#42 Postby HurricaneJim » Wed Aug 30, 2006 10:37 am

It also must be noted that a solid evac plan needs to be in your Contingency Operations Binder...to include Scenario F: Home gone, no return.

PS: God Bless NOLA. Keep up the Fight!


Jim
http://www.myspace.com/hurricanejim
http://www.myspace.com/stormchasetroopers
Image

NAVY WAM LINK
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/WAM/all_natl.html
0 likes   

Jim Cantore

#43 Postby Jim Cantore » Wed Aug 30, 2006 10:37 am

HurricaneJim wrote:Have gun, uh, I mean Kestrel 2000...will travel!



Fine tool that is, I own a 2500, I love it. Does everything I ask it to.
0 likes   

Zackiedawg
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 87
Joined: Tue Nov 08, 2005 10:46 am
Location: Boca Raton, Florida

#44 Postby Zackiedawg » Wed Aug 30, 2006 10:37 am

Lots in TX and FL


I do have to admit...that's a pretty strange statement. It actually doesn't seem to make any sense at all. Florida has seen more major hurricanes than MS/AL/LA, who are credited with having the least 'people I disagree with'. Charley was a Cat 4. Frances was a 2-day long cat 2. Jeanne was a borderline 3. Ivan was a solid 3. Dennis was a solid 3. Katrina a small 1. Wilma was a 3 at landfall, and a 2 all the way across the peninsula.

That's 6 hurricanes in under 2 years. 1 was one of the most intense hurricanes to make US landfall. 4 of them were cat 3...which is pretty major by most accounts I've ever heard. And 2 cat 2s as well. Having spent $17K to clean up, and 21 total days without power...I definately considered them major. Of course, I'm not a 'wish-caster' either. :)
Last edited by Zackiedawg on Wed Aug 30, 2006 10:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
HurricaneJim
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 136
Joined: Thu Aug 26, 2004 9:26 pm
Location: Rucksack, somewhere
Contact:

#45 Postby HurricaneJim » Wed Aug 30, 2006 10:38 am

Hurricane Floyd wrote:
HurricaneJim wrote:Have gun, uh, I mean Kestrel 2000...will travel!



Fine tool that is, I own a 2500, I love it. Does everything I ask it to.


Would that be the Remington or the Bennelli?

:wink:

Jim
http://www.myspace.com/hurricanejim
http://www.myspace.com/stormchasetroopers
Image

NAVY WAM LINK
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/WAM/all_natl.html
0 likes   

User avatar
sunny
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7031
Joined: Fri Aug 06, 2004 2:11 pm
Location: New Orleans

#46 Postby sunny » Wed Aug 30, 2006 10:39 am

lol Jim - there's a LOADED statement :D
0 likes   

User avatar
HurricaneJim
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 136
Joined: Thu Aug 26, 2004 9:26 pm
Location: Rucksack, somewhere
Contact:

#47 Postby HurricaneJim » Wed Aug 30, 2006 10:43 am

Jeanne was a borderline 3.


Jeanne was nuts. Almost took the roof off the hotel, which was full of panicking Polish clean up workers still there from frances. then there was the commercial air conditioner we rammed in the darkness, and then couldn't find the hotel entrance. Had to dismount in that thing and run a foot recon. Racoons the size of dogs running all over. Nuts.

The eye was cool, however, but then the wind shifted and ga-blam, here she came again.

Night landfall a dodgey thing and filming was useless.

Oh yea, and then the near carjacking was interesting.

Jim
http://www.myspace.com/hurricanejim
http://www.myspace.com/stormchasetroopers
Image

NAVY WAM LINK
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/WAM/all_natl.html
0 likes   

User avatar
sunny
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7031
Joined: Fri Aug 06, 2004 2:11 pm
Location: New Orleans

#48 Postby sunny » Wed Aug 30, 2006 10:46 am

Jim - you mentioned somewhere else about keeping extra shingles for roofs to use as repairs, and that is good advice. My brother-in-law actually did that after Katrina. The roof was "speared" by a tree branch and the hole was huge. Ricky said nope, wasn't going to trust the tarp. He had some extra shingles and put them up. Wasn't pretty, but it was better protection than a tarp.
Last edited by sunny on Wed Aug 30, 2006 10:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
HurricaneJim
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 136
Joined: Thu Aug 26, 2004 9:26 pm
Location: Rucksack, somewhere
Contact:

#49 Postby HurricaneJim » Wed Aug 30, 2006 10:49 am

Indeed. I couldn't believe it when we rolled on Dennis and saw blue tarps still up from Ivan. I can understand elderly, infirm, etc...but able bodied people should be able to slap up some roofing in a pinch.

Then there's always Monolithic dome houses with a couple of scrap watertight doors from a merchant ship and 12ft poured footers!

Jim
http://www.myspace.com/hurricanejim
http://www.myspace.com/stormchasetroopers
Image

NAVY WAM LINK
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/WAM/all_natl.html
0 likes   

curtadams
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1122
Joined: Sun Aug 28, 2005 7:57 pm
Location: Orange, California
Contact:

#50 Postby curtadams » Wed Aug 30, 2006 10:52 am

O Town wrote:
curtadams wrote:The proportion of people I disagree with for any spot seems roughly proportional to the number of coastal residents who haven't seen a major hurricane recently. Lots in TX and FL - some in NC/SC, and pretty few in MS/AL/LA.

What do you consider recently? Alot of people went through he!! in 2004 with 4 storms here , 3 that affected me directly. 1 was a cat 4, 2 were cat 3's, and 1 very slow moving cat 2 that flooded us all out. So I would not say we in FL have not been affected in recent years. And lets not forget last year with Wilma.

I don't see many people I disagree with from the areas Ivan, Charley, Jeanne, or Dennis hit. Wilma was bad, but not a major by the time she got to the Miami area. I guess she wasn't bad enough to quiet the people I disagree with there. Tampa seems to generate a fair number too.
0 likes   

HardCard
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 64
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 8:01 pm
Location: Winter Garden, Fl
Contact:

#51 Postby HardCard » Wed Aug 30, 2006 11:17 am

Pebbles wrote:I'm very surprised to see this. You do know that the PEAK of the season isn't untill 2 or 3 weeks away right? It's no where near winding down yet but instead probably just starting to wind up.


while I'll agree that the season tends to heat up this time of the year.. It simply has NOT. And the conditions do not seem to be shifting towards the more-favorable..

Remember, Fall is upon us, and while storms may form.. I believe the window for a major at this ponit is closing rapidly.. 2-3 weeks, and the seas should start cooling as more and more cool fronts start rolling down from the north.. While I am never one to pull and season cancel, or season bust thread.. This season seems to be headed for the record books as average, and underwhelming following the 2005 season.. Which, to be honest, is great!: )
0 likes   

Jim Hughes
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 825
Joined: Sun Jul 24, 2005 1:52 pm
Location: Martinsburg West Virginia

#52 Postby Jim Hughes » Wed Aug 30, 2006 11:21 am

Pebbles wrote:
HardCard wrote:yes, and having said ALL of that.. I believe 2006 is about to start winding down throughout the next 2-3 weeks..


I'm very surprised to see this. You do know that the PEAK of the season isn't untill 2 or 3 weeks away right? It's no where near winding down yet but instead probably just starting to wind up.


I am surprised by your reaction here. Since they were actually right Pebbles. The peak use to be around 9/10 but it may have been bumped back a day or two. So it technically all heads down hill after this point on. So the " peak", historically speaking, is only about 11-12 days away.

Does this mean there will be no more storms? Of course not but if the latter part of the peak looks anything like the front half, which we are currently in, it will be nothing to write home about.

And yes this does not mean that an Andrew can not happen.
0 likes   

Frank2
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4061
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2005 12:47 pm

#53 Postby Frank2 » Wed Aug 30, 2006 12:05 pm

I know that sometimes they work well, but, sometimes, I think we were all better off without the models (though I'm not surprised that the GFDL works well - the person who wrote the program was always hard at work whenever I passed his office)...

We had a near-panic down here on -- Monday (had to look at the calendar to remember what day it is - it's been that kind of week), with nervous crowds emptying gas stations, supermarkets and DIY stores.

I wonder about the poor guy who told a reporter that in a panic he bought $55 worth of nails for his plywood - all that the store had in stock...

This was the best-case scenario, as far as South Florida is concerned, though number of the fatalities in the Dominican Republic are still unknown.

Even though it was the best-case here, as others who live here might also say, most everyone here is suffering from battle-fatigue at this point, just due to days of watching, waiting, and wondering what would happen, after the terrible situation we all endured here last November.

We could all use a rest, Lord...

Frank
0 likes   

sprink52
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 212
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 1:25 pm
Location: Royal Palm Beach, Fl

#54 Postby sprink52 » Wed Aug 30, 2006 12:45 pm

jinftl wrote:agree with you on the 'hype' factor, but in all fairness, the National Hurricane was calling for Ernesto to possibly become Cat 2 or 3 hurricane when approaching florida as late as the Monday morning advisory....when the storm was a tropical storm over land:

THESE
CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ERNESTO BECOMING A
CATEGORY 2 OR EVEN A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL
ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST.

i am totally with you on the hype problem, but when you read something from the NHC, it might skew you towards hyping, even when the storm is not a hurricane yet....in other words, people kept buying into that statement, even though it is almost 48 hours old...but that is a pretty powerful statement for the NHC to write, hence the willingness to believe it.


I'm with you on this one. That Cat 2~Cat 3 deal was what got me cranked up. I'll take this over that any day. I just wish we got more rain out of this storm...especially over the lake. I'm afraid we might be headed into the dry season with a deficit.
0 likes   

User avatar
Lindaloo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 22658
Joined: Sat Mar 29, 2003 10:06 am
Location: Pascagoula, MS

#55 Postby Lindaloo » Wed Aug 30, 2006 12:46 pm

Here is a wishcast... please stop with all the name calling and arguing. It is getting really old from some of you. Please take your time in between storms and re-read board rules. This is not a reminder, next step is suspensions being handed out.
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: duilaslol and 41 guests