2006 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Reports Thread

[CrazyC83]

It says Ernesto caused $500 Million in damage in the U.S, I find that hard to believe.

Ernesto was quite likely a Cat 1 hurricane at landfall, but with a very large tropical storm force wind field. H. Cindy produced about $320 million in damage across SE LA last year, and Ernesto was a bit better organized than Cindy at landfall. I'm not surprised at all that it produced $500 million in damage, particularly since it hit a much more populated area with some very expensive real estate.

Yeah, considering it was initially thought that Ophelia - with much of its windfield offshore - did $1.6 billion in coastal NC and wasn't much stronger, so that doesn't seem as large as you think.

[Derek Ortt]

I would have downgraded Ernesto to about 60-65 mph at landfall in NC (and to 40 in Florida). While it had a much better satellite appearance than Cindy, the observations just do not support hurricane status, unlike with Cindy when it was fairly obvious that it was a hurricane based upon the SFMR and oil rig obs

[Derek Ortt]

Ernesto caused heavy flooding in Virginia. TC's quite often cause hundreds of millions in damage in this region

[Derek Ortt]

As for the reports, I am not sure that the primary intent is the general public, but instead other scientists. Those who are the primary recipients have access to either word or adobe (Adobe reader is free... so anyone should be able to open the .pdf versions).

I personally like the format better. It is quick and saves a lot of time and money (anyone write a report in html? If you are not proficient in it, it takes time)

[AussieMark]

HTML can be very time consuming especially with the formating involved to be used so its a good thing that prelim reports are on *.pdf or *.doc now. gives em more time for other things

[brunota2003]

I would have downgraded Ernesto to about 60-65 mph at landfall in NC (and to 40 in Florida). While it had a much better satellite appearance than Cindy, the observations just do not support hurricane status, unlike with Cindy when it was fairly obvious that it was a hurricane based upon the SFMR and oil rig obs

See...another problem is that we do not have oil rigs along our coast just offshore...we have some bouys...but those can be knocked out easily and I dont know how reliable the data in terms of strong winds are...

[wxman57]

I personally like the format better. It is quick and saves a lot of time and money (anyone write a report in html? If you are not proficient in it, it takes time)

Ever use Microsoft FrontPage? It's identical to MS Word, just about. If you can use MS Word, you can create HTML just as easily. Type text, highlight, make bold, colored, whatever. Drag/drop pictures where you want them. No difference except for the extension it's saved as. PDF is much harder to edit than HTML or MS Word documents.

Anyway, compare the two wind fields at landfall. Ernesto's wind field was much larger than Cindy's. Maps are the same scale.

Cindy:
ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/pub/hrd/hwind/2 ... l04deg.png

Ernesto:
ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/pub/hrd/hwind/2 ... l04deg.png

The difference in wind field sizes stands out even better on the 8-degree maps. There's no comparison between the two, Ernesto was more significant as far as the wind field.

Cindy:
ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/pub/hrd/hwind/2 ... l08deg.png

Ernesto:
ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/pub/hrd/hwind/2 ... l08deg.png

[Derek Ortt]

no disagreeing about the wind field size.

Another example of how a weaker system can cause more significant wind impacts due to a larger windfield

[HarlequinBoy]

And there wasn't a large difference in the winds anyways between Cindy and Ernesto (at NC landfall) was there? And into that Ernesto's larger wind field and it's not surprising really.

[CrazyC83]

Here are my personal estimates on storm peak intensities and landfall intensities:

TS Alberto - peak 60 kt - landfall 45 kt

TS Beryl - peak 50 kt - landfall 40 kt

TS Chris - peak 50 kt

TS Debby - peak 45 kt

TS Ernesto - peak 60 kt - Haiti peak 55 kt - Cuba landfall 40 kt - Florida landfall 40 kt - NC landfall 60 kt

H Florence - peak 85 kt

H Gordon - peak 105 kt

H Helene - peak 105 kt

H Isaac - peak 75 kt

[Andrew92]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL032006_Chris.pdf

Chris is now up.

[cycloneye]

The peak intensity was 55kts.The dry air was the main cause for Chris to weaken.Now only two reports are left including the Ernesto one which will be very interesting to read.,to see if it made landfall as a hurricane or not in North Carolina.

[Chacor]

The wording in the impact section is suspect. Some of us at Wikipedia think Stewart might have "borrowed" from us... including one line verbatim!

[JonathanBelles]

The wording in the impact section is suspect. Some of us at Wikipedia think Stewart might have "borrowed" from us... including one line verbatim!

"including one line verbatim" what? and where did he quote us?

[Chacor]

TCR impact:

News reports indicate that there were indirect economic effects associated with the Chris
official forecasts. Beginning on 2 August, NHC official forecasts projected Chris to move across
the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico as a category 1 hurricane. In response to these
forecasts, these price for crude oil rose on the New York Mercantile Exchange at branch offices
in London. Natural gas prices also rose considerably in New York Mercantile Exchange
electronic trading that same day. Anticipation of a threat to supply by a potential Hurricane Chris
coupled with high demand during an ongoing heat wave were cited as factors in the price move.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_S ... eparations:

Anticipation of a threat to supply by a potential Hurricane Chris coupled with high demand during an ongoing heat wave were cited as factors in the price move.

[wxmann_91]

Chacor,

Just wondering, did you copy that verbatim from another source? Perhaps the NHC used the same source and asked for permission to copy it verbatim, from that source.

[Chacor]

Wouldn't be possible, because we're not allowed to copy sources verbatim on Wiki (copyright infringements and all that). The source that information is attributed to on-wiki (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... refer=home), does not carry such a sentence.

Regardless, it's a tremendous pat on the back for Wikipedia. Our tropical cyclone articles have now been cited by pretty much everyone - Gary Padgett, CSU, Wunderground... and now possbly the NHC. Wow.

[Alacane2]

The Ernesto report has been posted on the NHC website.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL052006_Ernesto.pdf

[Chacor]

They've kept it at hurricane strength. Also no upgrade at NC landfall.

[Coredesat]

Interestingly, they did indicate that the possibility was there:

Since it is possible, however, that the maximum wind was not sampled, Ernesto might have reached hurricane strength near North Carolina.