TX Winter Wx Threat # 8--- TX Ice Storm

[Extremeweatherguy]

next batch of moisture is easily seen on IR...

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat ... t_loop.gif

Looks like bad news for tonight/tomorrow.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Two interesting developments for weather in the Austin metro area based on the NWS' mid-morning forecast update:

1) Predicted high of 35 has been dropped to upper 20s and holding steady today, tonight, into tomorrow. In other words, we won't go above freezing now for at least 24 hours. That is a big change!

2) Precip forecast now is for snow and sleet with no mention of freezing drizzle or rain. Perhaps the freezing column in the atmosphere is deepening?? However, it appears after lunch today we won't see much precip until late tonight.

So are you kicking the ball with a special kicking shoe or barefoot?

[Johnny]

Thanks for the update Jeff...this one doesn't look nearly as bad as the one you put out earliar this morning thankfully. What made you cut back on accumulation amounts? Should I still expect trees breaking and power outages here in central Montgomery County?

[Portastorm]

next batch of moisture is easily seen on IR...

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat ... t_loop.gif

Looks like bad news for tonight/tomorrow.

Alright ... props to EWG for spotting that!!

Keep hope alive ... and the threat for snow and sleet.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Hey Portastorm, the 100% of snow for Austin is sure interesting to look at. How often do we ever see that?

Definitely! I should probably do a screenshot save on that image, eh?

Unfortunately... it seems like now that we have the temps where they need to be ... the precip is stopping? I hope there's another upper level disturbance on the way or something, you know?

Look at the sattelite pics toward Mexico.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Jeff, your accumulation ideas are for freezing rain correct? What do you think accumulations of sleet could look like if we do see a changeover during the event? Sleet would accumulate more quickly than freezing rain wouldn't it?

[Wren]

Hi,

I'm just yet another lurker brought out (or is that in?) by the ice storm. Another Austinite here, and waving hi to Portastorm.

Just wanted to say, Jim Spencer over at KXAN mentioned, this morning, that another icy scenario might be setting up again for this coming weekend, but didn't say much. Said he didn't want to scare anyone.

Guess we'll see how scared we are after tonight. I vote we skip the ice and go straight to snow & collect $200. I laughed my head off yesterday at the guy who was gonna go out and build a humidity man. That was too funny whoever you are.

[Portastorm]

Hi,

I'm just yet another lurker brought out (or is that in?) by the ice storm. Another Austinite here, and waving hi to Portastorm.

Just wanted to say, Jim Spencer over at KXAN mentioned, this morning, that another icy scenario might be setting up again for this coming weekend, but didn't say much. Said he didn't want to scare anyone.

Guess we'll see how scared we are after tonight. I vote we skip the ice and go straight to snow & collect $200. I laughed my head off yesterday at the guy who was gonna go out and build a humidity man. That was too funny whoever you are.

Welcome aboard Wren! Good to have you ...

[jeff]

Appears we are getting ice accumulation just N of CLL.

Caldwell ASOS station is reporting calm winds while CLL is N at 22g 28...ice likely has frozen the anemometer. Brenham has fallen to 30 with freezing rain and Giddings is 32 with moderate freezing rain.

Temps. have fallen to 36 at Conroe, Hooks, and Sugarland.

Disregard the light snow being reported at Hooks, and freezing rain at Conroe, ASOS stations are having a tough time with the drizzle...mistaking it for snow or sleet. May be seeing some sleet mixture in the Brenham and CLL areas however.

[gboudx]

Looks like the ice on the sidewalks, street and my driveway are starting to melt or evaporate. Things will probably be much better later today if the sun can come out for a long enough period of time.

Edit: Sorry for double post. Not sure what happened here.

[jeff]

Thanks for the update Jeff...this one doesn't look nearly as bad as the one you put out earliar this morning thankfully. What made you cut back on accumulation amounts? Should I still expect trees breaking and power outages here in central Montgomery County?

Still could be enough to bring down tree limbs and power lines especially with the howling NW winds. Main reason for cutting back was dealying the onset of freezing temps. until midnight...however with that said and a good 2 degrees temp. drop last hour at IAH I may have to rethink. Additionally, accumulations over N TX and C TX have been less than forecast for this event.

[Portastorm]

Looks like the ice on the sidewalks, street and my driveway are starting to melt or evaporate. Things will probably be much better later today if the sun can come out for a long enough period of time.

So did things worsen badly late last night and during the overnight for y'all? How bad were the roads this AM? I've read/heard reports it was pretty icy up there.

[jeff]

Jeff, your accumulation ideas are for freezing rain correct? What do you think accumulations of sleet could look like if we do see a changeover during the event? Sleet would accumulate more quickly than freezing rain wouldn't it?

ACC is for ZR. Sleet acc. would probably be less than 1/2 of an inch..as at this time I do not see a full change over but maybe a mix Tuesday. Would be much better for the trees and power lines.

[gboudx]

Looks like the ice on the sidewalks, street and my driveway are starting to melt or evaporate. Things will probably be much better later today if the sun can come out for a long enough period of time.

So did things worsen badly late last night and during the overnight for y'all? How bad were the roads this AM? I've read/heard reports it was pretty icy up there.

It started early last night and continued through the night. My 2.5 yr old was crying at about 3:30am and when I got up to check on him, sleet was hitting the windows.

[Extremeweatherguy]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1026 AM CST MON JAN 15 2007

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH THE
THREAT FOR FROZEN PRECIPITATION INCREASING TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

.DISCUSSION...
THE BULK OF RAINFALL HAS MOVED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE EXIT OF
THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN LINGERS ACROSS
OUR FAR NORTH AND NORTHWEST COUNTIES AND ACROSS SOME OF OUR COASTAL
COUNTIES. RIGHT NOW...TEMPERATURES REMAIN GENERALLY BETWEEN 32 AND 34
DEGREES NORTH AND NORTHWEST...35 TO 41 CENTRAL AND SOUTH...AND IN THE
MID 40S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. STILL ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY
FALL THIS AFTERNOON WITH READINGS AT OR BELOW FREEZING NORTH AND NORTHWEST
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...REACHING THE FREEZING MARK BETWEEN
11 PM AND 3 AM CENTRAL AND REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES. IT APPEARS THAT A LULL IN PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...INLAND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS LOCATIONS AT OR BELOW FREEZING WILL BE UNDER THE GUN
FOR FROZEN PRECIPITATION. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCE
AND AREA TEMPERATURES...PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST TEXAS COULD BE
AT RISK FOR RECEIVING FROZEN PRECIPITATION FOR A 24 TO 36 HOUR TIME
PERIOD...FROM AS EARLY AS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. PLEASE
REFER TO THE WSWHGX AND SPSHGX FOR THE LATEST UPDATES ON THIS WINTER
WEATHER EVENT.

[southerngale]

That was me, Wren. (gal though)
My humidity man is actually a little chilly this morning. I took him a blanket and a cup of coffee and he's feeling better. I'm sure it won't be too long before he's back to his old self though...this is Texas, after all.

I see you've been a member for a while, but just made your first post...welcome to Storm2k!

[double D]

This is strange, the sun is peeking out here in Fredericksburg and actually see some blue skies to the west. Junction is reporting fair skies, but by looking at the satellite image it won't last too much longer.

[Portastorm]

btw, for those enjoying this kind of weather ... the 12z GFS run which is coming in now shows more of it, off and on, until Sunday.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

[Portastorm]

This is fairly consistent with what Houston NWS is saying as well:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1054 AM CST MON JAN 15 2007

.UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR LOOP DEPICTS PCPN ONGOING ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
COUNTIES MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A
LULL IN THE WINTER WEATHER EVENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
THE EXIT OF THE LATEST UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
THE MAIN WINTER WX EVENT WILL OCCUR TONIGHT THRU MID-DAY TUESDAY.
WILL CONTINUE CURRENT CONFIGURATION OF WINTER WX WATCHES AND
WARNINGS...IN SPITE OF CURRENT AND EXPECTED LULL IN PRECIP.

[TrekkerCC]

Looks like the ice on the sidewalks, street and my driveway are starting to melt or evaporate. Things will probably be much better later today if the sun can come out for a long enough period of time.

Edit: Sorry for double post. Not sure what happened here.

I can confirm that the ice is starting to melt/evaporate. The sun is also coming out (peeking in) behind clouds. I think we would have been much much worse had the temperature dropped well below freezing friday night. The temperature hovering around 32/33 on Saturday saved us from a much more serious icestorm. However, I'm looking to next weekend, where the GFS is putting precipitation and temperatures near freezing.