Atlantic INVEST 93L: W Africa

[drezee]

After looking at the 30-minute visible of the disturbance, I am actually shocked at how vigorous the mid-level circulation is. It is mean! The surface circulation seems to still be embedded in the trough. I can only remember a system like this in June of '98. I thought that it was going to be classified. I made it all the way to 35W and looked like an August wave. There were some rumblings about classifying it, but it fizzled near 40W. I am saving images on this one.

This system is almost a mimic of the '98 system I referenced earlier.

[abajan]

This (an INVEST so far to the east) is most unusual.

Two years ago my mango tree bore like crazy and the Atlantic recorded the most storms ever. This year that mango tree is once again going into overdrive. Could this be another bumper hurricane season in the making?

Prior to the start of the 2005 hurricane season, I had read some folklore suggesting that fruit trees bear a lot when there's going to be an active hurricane season. Maybe it's something to do with the amount of heat in the atmosphere? Then again, there may be no correlation whatsoever.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I am simply mistified to see this in June...I don't even see a glimmer of Uncle SAL

[sevenleft]

This (an INVEST so far to the east) is most unusual.

Two years ago my mango tree bore like crazy and the Atlantic recorded the most storms ever. This year that mango tree is once again going into overdrive. Could this be another bumper hurricane season in the making?

Prior to the start of the 2005 hurricane season, I had read some folklore suggesting that fruit trees bear a lot when there's going to be an active hurricane season. Maybe it's something to do with the amount of heat in the atmosphere? Then again, there may be no correlation whatsoever.

Yeah.

[Aric Dunn]

this bouy is kind of nearby!!! http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=13001

further north than our system

here are the rest of the obs.. it is sitting right between the cool water to the north and the warm waters to the south


northern bouy.. 79 southern bouy 81

[skysummit]

Never know....you remember the saying 2005 doesn't seem to care about climatology? Maybe 2007 wants to show it can play too.

[28_Storms]

"The other aspect which has had people on their toes for some time (at least
those people I have spoken to) is the abundance of fruit and fruit blossoms
on trees. Most tropical trees which bear fruit usually blossom when they
detect the presence of moisture.
There has been a lot of fruit trees blossoming lately and lots of fruit (I
have at least 5 different types of fruit trees in my garden and all have
been producing like crazy). In most cases which I have seen or studied based
on historical investigation, some form of tropical weather normally follows
this pattern."

Quote taken from:
http://stormcarib.com/georges.htm

[theworld]

Now isn't she just a beautiful child, hope she doesn't turn into an extremely nasty adult.

[Aric Dunn]

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/lis ... 0#controls

the 2z image..

[Extremeweatherguy]

that thing looks pretty healthy, more like something we would see in August...not early June.

[Evil Jeremy]

I leave you all alone for just a day, and look what happens!

If 93L stays like this overnight, a TD is possible by 11:30 AM!

[theworld]

[Chacor]

I've done a little research and compared the 2005-2007 seasons first five INVESTs, depressions and named storms by date of INVEST formation.

2006 includes the unnamed storm as 2nd storm.

Code: Select all

                        DATE DECLARED INVEST
STORM           2005            2006            2007
90L INVEST    JUNE 08         JUNE 08          MAY 08
91L INVEST    JUNE 09         JUNE 23          MAY 18
92L INVEST    JUNE 13         JUNE 24          MAY 31
93L INVEST    JUNE 15         JUNE 25         JUNE 09
94L INVEST    JUNE 24         JUNE 29

FIRST DEPR    JUNE 08         JUNE 08          MAY 08
SECND DEPR    JUNE 28        NO INVEST         MAY 31
THIRD DEPR    JULY 03         JULY 17
FOURTH DEP    JULY 04         JULY 27
FIFTH DEPR    JULY 09        AUGUST 21

FIRST STORM   JUNE 08         JUNE 08          MAY 08
SECND STORM   JUNE 28        NO INVEST         MAY 31
THIRD STORM   JULY 03         JULY 17
FOURTH STRM   JULY 04         JULY 27
FIFTH STORM   JULY 09        AUGUST 21

Later today, if I have the time, I'll do a comparison v.s. EPac and maybe WPac for the past three years.

[Derek Ortt]

This is not that uncommon

We have seen TCs this time of year before in this location. QS has indicated a few TSs (both of the TDs and a few other disturbances). Once they leave the monsoon trough, it is usually goodnight (Bertha in 1996 was an exception, not the rule)

[Aric Dunn]

first set of models runs on 93l
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

[djones65]

Derek, please share when/what years some of these un-classified TC's were.
Seriously, I do believe it is not uncommon to have well organized tropical waves with vigorous low/mid level circulations emerge from the continent, but are not normally given "invest" status.
What years are you referring to, because I consider Invest 93L very unusual and uncommon.

[Jam151]

Now, sit and wait and watch every new satellite image.

lol yeah .. use this site though .. its every hour..

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org

What URL did you have to visit just before finding that animation? Thanks.

[Aric Dunn]

Now, sit and wait and watch every new satellite image.

lol yeah .. use this site though .. its every hour..

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/lis ... 0#controls

What URL did you have to visit just before finding that animation? Thanks.

right here

http://www.eumetsat.int/Home/Main/Image ... x.htm?l=en

[Derek Ortt]

almost any year, there are a couple of well defined disturbances right off of Africa this time of year.

They really die out once they reach 30W

[sevenleft]

almost any year, there are a couple of well defined disturbances right off of Africa this time of year.

They really die out once they reach 30W

I don't know man....fruit is growing on trees....this one could be the real deal.