I know you all dont like JB......but......

[Scott_inVA]

"Thunder44" snips:Didn't many people on this board, including you Scott think that this 90L would be TS or Hurricane threatening the Lesser Antillies by now?
I did indeed think a TD by Saturday. But on-air, on site and in our email Updates I didn't... because I wasn't sure.

By the way Scott, your wrong about Lili and Claudette. JB thought Lili would make landfall no more than a Cat 2. The NHC thought it would be Cat 3 or 4. And JB and the NHC thought it would hit the Rio Grande area then they shifted their tracks further north. He didn't honk at the NHC for that cuz he agreed with them.
Aside from a potential Cat 4 mention in Discussions, they did not forecast a Cat-4 landfall. I saved JB's vid from the day before...high cat 3 or even a 4. With Claudette, true, both Accu and TPC started along the TX/MEX border. He later commented the TC could ride the Ridge and landfall in LA or ne TX. They were farther north than TPC.


And if you think that all JB does is hype. Well, you see NHC hyped TD #6 into becoming a hurricane by the time it reached Hispanola and Jamaica area. JB didn't hype it all, doubted there would be so much intenisfication.
TPC had 3 Advisories with long term speed to minimal Cat 1. JB later put the storm up off FL, than had a 2 day hissy fit that TPC called it "7". Well it was not a continuous Depression...it was different...and apparently off he went.

FWIW, I don't dislike JB...we are the same age, love the Yankees, Springsteen and the Stones and I have a son who wrestles and wants to be a met. But they need to get subscribers; mass media, commercial and internet premium customers willing to pay. I think getting the "premium" stuff was like paying to watch Spin City

[Scott_inVA]

So...there is your bias. Which is more wrong? To say a cat 4 then change your mind 24 hours out...or to ride the cat 4 train all the way? To me it is the former. However...you need to make sure you get the facts straight. You are wrong about Claudette and Lili. He did not "honk" about it moving up the coast because he was forecasting the same area. He did call for a cat 4 in Lili but revised it long before and said it was done in strengthening because Izzy had torn up the waters .

I have no "bias" against Bastardi.
But I did save some vids when free. The day before high cat 3 or even a 4 (TPC was forecasting a Cat-3 landfall 24 hours out). But it is passing upwelled water along w/an advancing trof the TC may not continue to strengthen.

As I am yet to see you offer any comments other than praise, apparently you are among those who think the guy plops gold bricks 24/7 and TPC sucks. I don't.

And thank you for your advice about getting my facts straight.
Too late.
They are.

[Air Force Met]

"TPC was forecasting a Cat-3 landfall 24 hours out".

Yes...and a CAT 4 9 hours out. See the 11PM EDT discussion on 2 Oct. So...9 hours out they forecast a CAT 4 and it came in as a 2. 9 Hours. JB has gotten off that wagon a day before.

Sorry, your facts are not straight.
"Aside from a potential Cat 4 mention in Discussions, they did not forecast a Cat-4 landfall. "

HURRICANE LILI SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 45
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT WED OCT 02 2002

REPORTS FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATE
THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF LILI HAS DROPPED TO 941 MB WITH
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 131 KT. LILI IS THUS UPGRADED TO A 115 KT
CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE. THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY UPDATES THE INITIAL
INTENSITY AND INTENSITY FORECAST. THE TRACK...WIND RADII...AND
WARNINGS ARE THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/1800Z 25.3N 89.4W 115 KTS
12HR VT 03/0000Z 26.0N 90.5W 125 KTS
24HR VT 03/1200Z 28.1N 92.1W 125 KTS
36HR VT 04/0000Z 30.4N 92.5W 85 KTS...INLAND


HURRICANE LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER 46
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED OCT 02 2002
FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/2100Z 25.9N 90.0W 120 KTS
12HR VT 03/0600Z 27.5N 91.4W 125 KTS
24HR VT 03/1800Z 29.8N 92.3W <B> 125 KTS...INLAND</B> A forecasted CAT 4 (a strong one too) at landfall.


HURRICANE LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER 47
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED OCT 02 2002

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/0300Z 27.2N 90.6W 125 KTS
12HR VT 03/1200Z 29.2N 91.5W 125 KTS
24HR VT 04/0000Z 31.8N 91.5W 70 KTS...INLAND

Sorry....your facts are not straight. This is glowing proof of the Cat 4 fact. Easiliy verifiable by pulling up the archive data on the NHC site.

So...I think this discussion is over. Why? Because you say you have facts and it is obvious you believe that. However...a little leven in false facts levens the whole lump and I think it is obviously a futile discussion.

[Air Force Met]

Also you wrote:As I am yet to see you offer any comments other than praise, apparently you are among those who think the guy plops gold bricks 24/7 and TPC sucks. I don't.

You would be wrong to take a small sample and make a judgment. Small sample sizes lead to faulty conclusions in analysis. I have said before in the chat room and to others that he hypes (I even said that here) and is slow to admit when he missed and quick to say when he was right. I also don't believe the TPC sucks. However, my little military weather unit has been outforecasting them for years...with afdigs charts (first) then dial-up. So...I believe if we had all the tools available to us as they do...it would be no contest...especially since we have won more forecasting battles against them then we have lost over the years.

[vbhoutex]

I'm not going back to the first of this thread to rehash what has been said. I see one thing coming out here and I don't feel this discussion is getting anywhere-it has become a I said-you said and nothing else. Joe B is Joe B and he is definitely a personality. Let's leave it at that and move on to something more interesting than him-though I must admit he can be interesting. WE ARE NOT HERE TO DEBATE WHO OR WHAT AGENCY, PUBLIC OR PRIVATE IS THE BETTER FORECASTER-WE ARE HERE TO DISCUSS THE WEATHER IN THE TROPICS in this particular forum. LETS GET BACK TO THAT- even though it is somewhat quiet out there right now. I'm sorry if my rant offends anyone, but that is my 0.02 cents worth on this one!

[Lindaloo]

I agree with you VB!!! Keep up the good work Scott!!!

[JetMaxx]

Do I respect Joe Bastardi?
Sure....not only because he's a professional meteorologist, but he assisted a friend of mine land a position with Accu-Weather (administrative)....so I know he's a decent guy. His columns are also interesting and enjoyable to read.

Saying that, IF I lived in a beach house at Grand Isle, Louisiana....or a condo at Gulf Shores or Destin, and there's a major hurricane in the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico heading NW -- the ONLY forecasts and recommendations I'm listening to regarding my safety, my family's safety; and protecting my property are those issued by THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

PW

[Lindaloo]

Excellent post Perry!! And also listen to your local mets. That is a big plus!! You do not have to pay for their info either. LOL!!