Invest 92L,West Atlantic

[terstorm1012]

Good night!

Hellooo Felix.

[Sjones]

The link isn't working for me, can't get it to pull up.

[skysummit]

The SFWMD spaghetti is up for this
http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_92.gif

I'm thinking my friends on Bermuda may be interested in this one.

Why? It wouldn't be going toward Bermuda. Disregard that CLIP model....it's climatology only.

[wsquared77]

Forgive my ignorance...
What determines when something becomes and invest?

[ronjon]

8 day forecast of GFS 500 mb pattern - large expansive ridge covering the eastern US and western Atlantic ocean.

[tolakram]

[storms in NC]

Boy I sure do like thoes strong ridges over us here on the East coast.

Deb

[Chacor]

Forgive my ignorance...
What determines when something becomes and invest?

The NWS and DOD both have the ability to declare invests on areas of interest. Presumably this occurs when a (sub)TC is possible or if the U.S. is threatened. INVESTs can and have been declared for non-tropical lows and fronts before.

[Jagno]

this will likely develop as it slows down and ends up under an upper ridge

probably looking at a cane out of this one

reminds me of dennis 1999

strong words from Derek here....but do you think it will curve up to the midatlantic coast like Dennis. Models want to push it across the FL peninsula into GOM...

While the attention is on Dean, I do forsee the attention quickly shifting to this one (where many people don't even know it is there yet).

I personally like his comparison; so just ignore the models, throw up the shield in Florida and send the future Mr. Felix on his way. The GOM is still closed for repairs.

Sorry folks, just had to throw that in there after seeing that chart above that really sent most of these storms that developed in that area NOT making it into the gulf. Been an interesting week to kick off the season so I guess this week will be no different.

[fci]

I can't remember, but either Frances or Jean did this and well we ALL know what happend there!

also Correct me if I am wrong, but didn't Katrina start out in this area? I mean before it was TD 10 even.

Katrina started in the Sourhtern Bahamas.

Even though there is a ridge, I think this is starting way too far North to be a South or Central Florida issue.

[storms in NC]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
707 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2007




.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE PERIOD. INITIALLY CENTERED TO
OUR WEST THIS FEATURE WILL ELONGATE TO THE NE THURSDAY AND THEN
REMAIN MORE OR LESS IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE PD. ABV CLIMO
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. SUCH A PATTERN DOES NOT
PARTICULARLY BODE WELL FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES. BY THURSDAY THE
CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL HIGH WILL HAVE RETROGRADED FAR ENOUGH TO
THE WEST THAT ITS PRECIP-SUPPRESSING INFLUENCE WILL HAVE WEAKENED
SLIGHTLY. SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN IN THE SAME
TIME FRAME WOULD IMPLY THAT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED FOR
MAINLY DIURNAL SCT CONVECTION.


Well it looks like there will be a weakness in the ridge by the end of the week.

[Lowpressure]

I tend to agree here that it appears this will be a cane as it approaches the SE US. Conditions are very good with strong ridging. Too early to predict any landfall point. If I were from Hatteras to Miami, I would pay attention. Particularly the Carolinas.

[jhamps10]

I tend to agree here that it appears this will be a cane as it appraoches the SE US. Conditions are bery good with strong ridging. Too early to predict any landfall point. If I were from Hatteras to Miami, I would pay attention.

true, also the gulf coast should watch this too, should it come across Florida.

[skysummit]

To me, this just looks like another "Jeanne, Francis, Katrina, Andrews" type set up regarding a potential track. (I'm meaning concerning Florida)

[boca]

I'm thinking a Carolina worry since the high pressure will be weakening later in the week. If the high was not weakening at the end of the week Florida would normally be concerned. Its already at 20N and moving WNW like fci said not a Central or South Florida system. The Miami and Melbourne NWS said the high will weaken late in the week.

[storms in NC]

What is up this year with these storms going on a race to the finish line or something. Going 20-25- MPH

[Lowpressure]

I'm thinking a Carolina worry since the high pressure will be weakening later in the week. If the high was not weakening at the end of the week Florida would normally be concerned. Its already at 20N and moving WNW like fci said not a Central or South Florida system. The Miami and Melbourne NWS said the high will weaken late in the week.

Yes, the weakness seems to be the key. Remants and ultimate position of Erin may play a role late in the forcast period, as odd as it may sound.

[boca]

I would like to here reasoning why some posters think 92L will be in the GOM with the high pressure forecasted to weaken later in the period?

[gatorcane]

boca the system is heading on a WNW bearing right now -- right at Florida. The high is forecasted to build in strong to the north and that would turn it W to WSW for a couple of days. The fact that the high is weakening is new news to me -- the CMC tends to think it will cross the South Florida peninsula still....

The ridging over the east coast of the US is powerful right now. In fact look how far south it is sending Dean which looks to be taking the southern end of the model envelope. Also you wouldn't expect a significant weakness at the end of August....this is not October.

Florida should watch this thing as it moves WNW and then W

[hazmat]

boca...yes Miami NWS said the high would weaken later in the week...but they also mention how the GFS brings it across by late Wednesday...it will be gone & in the Gulf by the time the high weakens.
CMC is a little slower...and much stronger...Derek mentions good chance of a cane though. Even with the CMC scenario we're talking Thurs/Fri..cutting close in hoping that ridge moves out enough.
I think it's a "Bear Watch"