Bay of Campeche

[wxman57]

Looks better than 94L, to me. Definitely not inland now, but it will be in 6 hours or less. But once it's over the BoC it may regenerate. Could become a TD or weak TS before it eventually moves into Mexico (again).

[Brent]

5:30pm TWO:

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM HONDURAS
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO PROXIMITY
TO LAND. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES WESTWARD.

[Stormcenter]

Looks better than 94L, to me. Definitely not inland now, but it will be in 6 hours or less. But once it's over the BoC it may regenerate. Could become a TD or weak TS before it eventually moves into Mexico (again).

It's the year of Mexico.

[lrak]

5:30pm TWO:

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM HONDURAS
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO PROXIMITY
TO LAND. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES WESTWARD.

with just a satellite and a desktop computer I say they're wrong NW

[Sanibel]

Looks to me like the center is pulling NW and is going back over water right now.

[lrak]

Looks to me like the center is pulling NW and is going back over water right now.

thats what Im seeing and buoy pressure is falling http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

NHC watervaper loop of the GOM looks wicked. All kinds of activity.

How can something look so good yet nothing from the NHC? So many other variables that I don't know and yet I KNOW this one will spin up. Not an official forecast from a newb, just a gut with gerr...feeling. Any takers?

[caneman]

This is the best thing going. I just don't understand the NHC this year. I think they've been a little off other than Dean. JUst got pressure reading in Belize of 29.74 and 29.8 in Honduras. Yeah land may hinder it but still give it its due and most certainly doesn't look over land as NHC. They also seem to have been off on their movement. As it appears to be moving more NW and may make a run at the BOC. Bring back Stacey Stewart.

[HURAKAN]

Based on that report from Roatan Island, there is nothing yet at the surface.

[HURAKAN]

How many Erins and 99Ls are we going to have this season!!!

[windstorm99]

Floater up...

[HURAKAN]

It should be 95L if it continues to put a show like this over the next few hours. Yucatan may be a problem, but later on the GOM should provide a better environment.

[cycloneye]

That is an old image from what was Dean after its final landfall in old Mexico.

[HURAKAN]

:uarrow: That is an old image from what was Dean after its final landfall in old Mexico.

Luis, hit the refresh button as hard as you can because it says August 28.

[caneman]

Anyone who accuses the NHC of being overly agressive in naming systems should look at this one and I believe there has been one or two more that they've been conservative on yhis year. Not saying it sohuld be named but certainly deserves more press than it has received in addtion they've been saying movement west for days and early on had it going EPAC when in fact it is WNW if not closer to NW.

[caneman]

:uarrow: That is an old image from what was Dean after its final landfall in old Mexico.

Luis, hit the refresh button as hard as you can because it says August 28.

Mine say 8/23, even when I access it on NHC site

[Brent]

It's definitely not showing Dean here.

[mattpetre]

If this does go more NW, or even N at some point will it provide a long term weakness for 94L to fit through?

[Normandy]

Anyone who accuses the NHC of being overly agressive in naming systems should look at this one and I believe there has been one or two more that they've been conservative on yhis year. Not saying it sohuld be named but certainly deserves more press than it has received in addtion they've been saying movement west for days and early on had it going EPAC when in fact it is WNW if not closer to NW.

Ummm.....
I don't know what you want them to say about this system....it is what it is....a disorganized wave with nothing even being close to the surface as far as vorticity goes. Low level flow is easterly across the entire disturbance basically.

One good thing it has going for it is good U/A divergence.

[caneman]

Anyone who accuses the NHC of being overly agressive in naming systems should look at this one and I believe there has been one or two more that they've been conservative on yhis year. Not saying it sohuld be named but certainly deserves more press than it has received in addtion they've been saying movement west for days and early on had it going EPAC when in fact it is WNW if not closer to NW.

Ummm.....
I don't know what you want them to say about this system....it is what it is....a disorganized wave with nothing even being close to the surface as far as vorticity goes. Low level flow is easterly across the entire disturbance basically.

One good thing it has going for it is good U/A divergence.

Well, where do I start. Something more than "it is moving into central America" (never did), "it is over Central America" (it isn't). "its moving West", when it isn't. "No chance at development" when it clearly looks like it does, either here or in BOC. And now appears to be heading towards BOC when that has never been mentioned. I never once stated it is a develped system but clearly has better than a 0% chance NHC has been giving it . So we could start in anyone of these areas. It may never develope but compared to what is happening the actual explanations have been far from accurate. IMHO

[Tropics Guy]

Yes, I too was puzzled by the 5:30 TWO on this system., think the low has pulled off the coast, and though the clouds appear going NW the system generally is moving more to the WNW, which could be a big rain issue for Belize or the Yucatan. still , it will have to hurry up to make TD status before it hits land and that's the NHC's call.