Facing the facts: 2007 season not living up to expectations

[Category 5]

I've noticed a pattern.

1995-1999: Many U.S Hurricanes
2000-2002: Few U.S Hurricanes
2003-2005: Many U.S Hurricanes
2006-2007: Few U.S Hurricanes

However during the phases of few U.S Hurricanes, there was alot of Activity outside the U.S.

[MiamiensisWx]

But that's typical. Most waves don't develop. Most invests don't become Cat 5s. Most tropical storms don't rapidy intensify.

We are halfway through the alphabet.

The season's forecast could be exactly right, but if we don't have major hurricanes heading toward the U.S. coast to get the board's adrennaline pumping and excited posts 24/7, then some of us are bound to be disappointed. cycloneye started a thread about less "euphoria" over invests. That's the effect of the monumental 2004 and 2005 seasons.

I'd guess that many coastal residents in the US will go an average of 10+ years between being in the 3-day cone of a major. To have hurricane warnings posted for a Cat 4 or 5 might take 100 years in some places, and 50 years in more likely areas.

On one of the most hurricane-prone coasts of the U.S., we haven't had a major hit since 1965. Still, two of the three category 5s US landfalls were 25 miles either side of here.

Older folks have to remind themseleves that the young have only seen the most amazing hurricane seasons in a century. If this season were typical, many parts of the coast would be much less developed than they are. If 2004 and '05 were typical, we we'd have 10-15 million fewer people in Florida.

Thank you, Recurve.

I have made numerous attempts to convey this key point, but few people appear to be listening on this board.

The number of landfalling hurricanes (notably majors) in the United States during 2003-2005 (especially '04 and '05) was EXTREMELY unprecedented, even when you examine the inaccuracies and undercounted seasons in historical data. Unfortunately, too many people have accepted '03-05, four hurricanes striking FL, Katrinas, Ritas, catastrophic storms striking major metropolitan areas and other regions, etc. as the statistical norm. Prior to these recent years, major hurricane landfalls were correctly regarded as unusual events in any given year. You don't see a storm on Katrina's magnitude every season, unless you believe in Hollywood. Now it seems like a season (i.e. 2007) that does not feature a landfalling United States hurricane of exceptional intensity is not respected. Contrast this view point to the recent (pre-2004) past, when any season with more than 10 named storms was regarded as an above average year.

I personally believe the "doom and gloom" is rather pointless, especially when you consider our awareness is top notch here in FL. We are not complacent. If you believe that is the case, please take a look at our emergency planning and response. Join CERT. Everyone has been discussing preparedness and supplies over the past three years. Look at the local levels from Jacksonville to Pensacola. It is rather laughable to assume we are ignorant as the pre-2004 generation. If a storm shows strong indications of development, this site (S2K) will be on top of the situation. History (also known as board climatology) proves that is the case. We shouldn't worry too much when you have the best support on your side. I'm far from complacent.

Finally, too much emphasis on "worst case" scenarios ignores the more common weaker systems that can cause some problems. I'm not talking about Ernesto-type systems that were not a big deal. I'm referring to Humbertos, Claudettes, south Florida Katrinas (Version 1.0), other Category 1/2 hurricanes, and "wet" tropical storms with heavy precipitation that cause significant local flooding (i.e. Gordon '94, Irene '99, and Allison '01). A rapidly intensifying tropical storm can produce more wind damage than a weakening system. It's not about the ultimate intensity; it's all about the intensity changes and structural alterations prior to landfall. Additionally, there are tornado threats, downbursts, etc. associated with the thunderstorms of weak systems. Wind field size makes a huge difference, too. Wilma's large expanse of Category 1 winds caused significant effects here in southern FL!

I just wanted to remove this burden from my chest. In a nutshell, people should lower their expectations. I'm not upset about -removed-, but I wish people would be more realistic.

[Recurve]

No, thank you. Excellent post.

It's a simple formula:

D = 1/Y^2

(Max possible disappointment is the inverse of the number of years you've been a tropics watcher squared. My disappointment is likely to be no more than 1/400th that of a newbie with 1 season under his belt)

[benny]

I have to agree with the first post. 2007 has really been a slow year in many respects. I think expectations were raised because of a forecast La Nina (which happened!) and all the high seasonal forecast numbers. Facts to consider:

1) ACE value is lower so far than 2006 (who would have thought that!)
2) Although there were 8 storms in September, there were the fewest number of hurricane days in the month since 1994.
3) Lowest ACE in September since 1997
4) There is a massive gap in the tracks north of 17.5n east of 70w. Can anyone say higher than expected shear?!?
5) We got a ton of storms, but the same number of hurricanes as 2006 but actually less hurricane days. bizarre. who would have forecast this year to be quieter than last?
6) A moderate La Nina formed during the season. This traditionally supports a fair amount of hurricanes. Yet...???

Unless we get an October monster or two, this year will probably go down as a major forecast failure. As best I can tell, the cool tropical Atlantic had something to do with it. I'm really a little jaded with the whole seasonal forecasting business. A quick recap:

2004- most everyone (seasonal forecasters) expected a near average year due to a developing El Nino. Result: monster year
2005- most everyone expected a near record year due to ridiculously warm Atlantic SST's. Result: mega monster year
2006- most everyone expected an above average year as the El Nino wouldn't be very strong. Result: junky year
2007- most everyone expected an above average year due to La Nina. Result: average year

sigh. oh well.

[Rainband]

I for one am happy at the season so far.

[Recurve]

Two category 5 landfalls: average year!!!!!!??????????

I've said it before: What were you expecting? Five Cat 5 landfalls? Global thermonuclear war??

[MiamiensisWx]

I have to agree with the first post. 2007 has really been a slow year in many respects. I think expectations were raised because of a forecast La Nina (which happened!) and all the high seasonal forecast numbers. Facts to consider:

1) ACE value is lower so far than 2006 (who would have thought that!)
2) Although there were 8 storms in September, there were the fewest number of hurricane days in the month since 1994.
3) Lowest ACE in September since 1997
4) There is a massive gap in the tracks north of 17.5n east of 70w. Can anyone say higher than expected shear?!?
5) We got a ton of storms, but the same number of hurricanes as 2006 but actually less hurricane days. bizarre. who would have forecast this year to be quieter than last?
6) A moderate La Nina formed during the season. This traditionally supports a fair amount of hurricanes. Yet...???

Unless we get an October monster or two, this year will probably go down as a major forecast failure. As best I can tell, the cool tropical Atlantic had something to do with it. I'm really a little jaded with the whole seasonal forecasting business. A quick recap:

2004- most everyone (seasonal forecasters) expected a near average year due to a developing El Nino. Result: monster year
2005- most everyone expected a near record year due to ridiculously warm Atlantic SST's. Result: mega monster year
2006- most everyone expected an above average year as the El Nino wouldn't be very strong. Result: junky year
2007- most everyone expected an above average year due to La Nina. Result: average year

sigh. oh well.

You raised some good points. Many things have been intriguing, especially the bold (highlighted) portions. Interestingly, some systems failed to develop despite better UL conditions and lower background pressures than 2006. If the recent Caribbean system sputters (again), I'll be extremely interested as to why a La Nina year would feature an active first half (May-August) that is eventually followed by a very tranquil October. Additionally, this potentially abnormally tranquil October comes on the heals of a September where numerous storms struggled with less conducive conditions. Normally, most Nina seasons get cranked in September and often run through November or December (see '98 as one example). It is really bizarre, although I'm sure it has occurred in the historical records. Firstly, last year's Nino was anomalous, and we are currently witnessing an above average season (in terms of total numbers) that is displaying some odd (uncharismatic) features despite a strengthening Nina (Atlantic basin-wise). The mid-Atlantic disruption of Ingrid, Karen, and Melissa via strong 150 mb tropospheric westerly flow (supporting a basin-wide TUTT during September) is unusual.

This brings another point to the front: were Dean and Felix (long-tracked "low runner" Category 5 landfallers) a "balancing act" (along with rapidly intensifying Lorenzo and Humberto) for the rest of a "weak" (reference to other storms) season? The aforementioned systems found the Caribbean/GOM "sweet spot", and they intensified prior to their landfalls. Personally, we know very scant information about our atmosphere, as revealed by increasing numbers of studies. I wouldn't really discount the influence of anthropogenic GW, but I wouldn't make a definite statement as there are many other factors (as mentioned on all boards).

This is an interesting season. I wouldn't hasten to declare it "dull", as I mentioned in my previous posts and discourse with Recurve. We have seen two Category 5 landfalls; a system (Erin) restrengthened to a TS over OK; Lorenzo and Humberto rapidly intensified; and we saw significant damages in Mexico and Central America, in addition to some significant localized damages from Humberto and Erin (OK). I'm attempting to address all views here. It's not a "weak" year in terms of total numbers, too.

[Recurve]

Good discussion and points from benny and MiamiensisWx.

[Jam151]

ACE is a great measure of season activity as it takes into account longativity and intensity of storms without being too arbitrary like the divisions between TD/NS, NS/H, and H/MH. So barring a late season major hurricane (possible), this season will end up average or a little bit below average.

It has also been well below average for the US. The US coast has seen 44% of normal ACE activity.

That said, I agree with Miamiensiswx that it has been interesting. Between two category 5 landfalls within two weeks, a quick forming category 5, a TS reforming over OK, and two rapidly intensifying hurricanes at landfall, it has been far from boring. Much more exciting than last year even if the ACE doesn't show it.

[Patrick99]

A lot of smoke in the basin, this season, but not much fire. Look at October so far for a prime example......PLENTY to watch, but nothing gets going.

[Downdraft]

With each passing day the chances of a buzz saw coming out of the Atlantic drops even further down. Pretty soon the Fat Lady is going to sing and then with a La Nina in place we'll have pleasant weather this winter in Florida. I'm a happy camper with 2007 so far. Hope 2008 is just as good!

[DanKellFla]

The science of seasonal forecasting is so new that it shouldn't be a surprise that reality and the forecasts don't totally match up. Personally, I had no expectations, just hopes and fears. Every season is a different animal and a different learning opportunity. As numerical methods become more advanced and more historical data is available, forecasting should improve. Maybe in 20 years we will get a pretty reliable forecast. For now, I will check the NHC website daily durring hurricane season. I like the way the season has turned out for me. No mad runs to the gas station. No extension cords throughout the house. My screens not needing me to fix them again. So far so good is what I say. From 1985, the time I moved to S. Florida, to 2003, I experienced one Hurricane from a distance. That was enough for me. I'll gladly take another 18 years of nothing.

[MGC]

Had it not been for the shear the 2007 season could have produced a couple more major hurricanes. 13 named systems so far is slightly above average, so 2007 is no bust as far as I am concerned. 2 Cat 5's in one year is plenty for me. 2004 and 2005 are about as bad as it can get so lets hope we don't have another 1-2 punch like that again for a very long time......MGC

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This year was a blessing for the gulf coast
recovering from other storms (Humberto
of course was NOT a blessing).

I hope that in future years, no storms hit
the devastated areas and if something does spin
up it is just a weak tropical storm and NO MORE.

But it is nice to see that there are 2 years without
a major hurricane hitting the gulf coast. I hope that
a 2005 season in damage does not occur for a long time.

[Weatherfreak000]

The bottom line is you kids are just not satisfied if there isn't a hurricane heading towards the U.S. everyday during the season.

(How do I know this? I recall season cancel posts in September in 2005. Yes. That really happened)

If your looking for an instant satisfaction hobby, go try knitting. Watching hurricanes isn't gonna be your bag. I honestly thought some of you kids watched these things past 2004. Guess I was wrong.

[amosmoses]

dude that is bs...theres one or two people maybe who are moping about the fact that theres no storms headed toward the US, everyone else just wondering why everything is dying out so quickly and theres nothing wrong that, its science people want answers to things

if i see somebody come out say that they want to see more major hurricanes towards the US im gonna think thats stupid, but im not gonna spend all day getting upset and complaining about it, as has been pointed out before its not like it actually makes a difference in what happens

[DanKellFla]

The bottom line is you kids are just not satisfied if there isn't a hurricane heading towards the U.S. everyday during the season.

(How do I know this? I recall season cancel posts in September in 2005. Yes. That really happened)

If your looking for an instant satisfaction hobby, go try knitting. Watching hurricanes isn't gonna be your bag. I honestly thought some of you kids watched these things past 2004. Guess I was wrong.

Look at the post previous to yours.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The bottom line is you kids are just not satisfied if there isn't a hurricane heading towards the U.S. everyday during the season.

(How do I know this? I recall season cancel posts in September in 2005. Yes. That really happened)

If your looking for an instant satisfaction hobby, go try knitting. Watching hurricanes isn't gonna be your bag. I honestly thought some of you kids watched these things past 2004. Guess I was wrong.

I do not want a hurricane hitting anywhere.
I stated that the US is blessed this year
except for Humberto and also flooding Erin.

But I do love tropical storms. Your second statement about instant
satisfaction Does apply to tropical storms Only.

[Tstormwatcher]

The thing is that for the last 2 years, the experts have predicted very bad years especially for the east coast and so far they have been very wrong. I realize that doom and gloom get the news coverage but why try to scare people? If you scare them enough and nothing happens then guess what happens why the real deal comes, people will ignore it. I wish they would stop guessing what may happen and just stick to what is happening.

[MiamiensisWx]

The thing is that for the last 2 years, the experts have predicted very bad years especially for the east coast and so far they have been very wrong. I realize that doom and gloom get the news coverage but why try to scare people? If you scare them enough and nothing happens then guess what happens why the real deal comes, people will ignore it. I wish they would stop guessing what may happen and just stick to what is happening.

It should be noted that the "doom and gloom" landfall forecasts do not originate from NOAA, Colorado State University, TSR, or other organizations and researchers. That issue (hype) is driven by certain individuals at private meteorological firms and the media. I have never seen NOAA and actual researchers predict nasty landfalls. They only stated that above average seasons (in terms of total NS) may increase the landfall probabilities along the United States coastline from Maine to Brownsville, TX (in addition to the Caribbean/Bahamas). Too many people (after 2003-2006) blame the TPC for false statements that were never issued or promoted. Additionally, some of these people probably never check their facts or practice year-round disaster preparedness.