ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Ivanhater]

I'm confused; is that 95l/Matthew or a future storm???

It develops a storm further east..it is not the same system...you can see 95L and the one we are tracking getting over the northern tip of the Yucatan

[PTrackerLA]

I just can't help but think the GFS is on drugs. That solution just looks ridiculous! This whole situation just isn't getting any clearer with time is it?

[CourierPR]

Just as an aside, AccuWeather indicated the possibility of several storms forming in the Caribbean. My question is where does that second system come from?

[Ivanhater]

Pure weirdness going on with the surface reflection...but look how much shallower and faster the trough is to lift out this run compared to the 00z run....night and day


00z run



12z run

[SouthFLTropics]

Geez, what does the GFS got against South Florida...It seems like it has got it in for us. What did we ever do to it. If it doesn't get us with 95L (Matthew) then it tries to get us with future Nicole...

SFT

[HURRICANELONNY]

I think when it's Mathew. Models will get clearer as to what direction and strength will become of him. I personally think it will crash into Belize and maybe disapate. Wave is moving fast and the trough won't be here before landfall. That's my thinking.

[Vortex]

Looks like a bad run overall by the gfs....however sfl needs to be very vigilant over the next few weeks...

[SoupBone]

Geez, what does the GFS got against South Florida...It seems like it has got it in for us. What did we ever do to it. If it doesn't get us with 95L (Matthew) then it tries to get us with future Nicole...

SFT

Forgive me Ivanhater for going OT a bit. It's because these storms love Disney World and want to ride all of the mountains (Space, thunder, etc.).

Ivan, are there any models that grasp troughs better than the GFS, Euro, etc.? It seems thay all have issues predicting them...why is that?

[Vortex]

lets see how the rest of the 12Z guidance shapes up

[Vortex]

MW,

what’s your take on the 12Z GFS….you break these down well.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Didn't some group do a research/invest of the area synoptics last night? Is that data ingested into these models yet?

[Ivanhater]

Geez, what does the GFS got against South Florida...It seems like it has got it in for us. What did we ever do to it. If it doesn't get us with 95L (Matthew) then it tries to get us with future Nicole...

SFT

Forgive me Ivanhater for going OT a bit. It's because these storms love Disney World and want to ride all of the mountains (Space, thunder, etc.).

Ivan, are there any models that grasp troughs better than the GFS, Euro, etc.? It seems thay all have issues predicting them...why is that?

It's a cut off low and models are nortoriously bad at forecasting them even in the short term, much less the long term. GFS has been wildly swinging the position of the cut off low...the likely convective feedback with this second low doesn't help...

The track of 95L this run was further NW exiting the northern tip of the Yucatan this run in response to the different position of the cut off low. ..similar to last night's Canadian

[GCANE]

Just as an aside, AccuWeather indicated the possibility of several storms forming in the Caribbean. My question is where does that second system come from?

There are a couple weak waves currently at 48W and 53W.

[Ivanhater]

Nogaps heading north toward the Panhandle as the cut off low bumps back north and the ridge east of Florida slowly builds west

[Dean4Storms]

GFS is the east outlier at this point and it isn't even 95L.

Me think the GFS as far as the developments in the Carb. Sea on this run were junk!

[ConvergenceZone]

I guess the verdict is that none of the models have absolultely any clue what is going to develop, or where it's going to come from, where it's going to go and how strong it's going to get.... All we have right now is a wave that may develop as it moves further west....

[Ivanhater]

12z Canadian is weak but exiting off the NW Yucatan and not hooking up with the trough.

[ronjon]

IH, the NOGAPs & CMC seem like a lot more reasonable runs given the time of year. They also line up well with the Euro ensemble run. Interesting to see what the operational ECM shows today.

[Ivanhater]

IH, the NOGAPs & CMC seem like a lot more reasonable runs given the time of year. They also line up well with the Euro ensemble run. Interesting to see what the operational ECM shows today.

I agree Ron....this situation is so complex...remember the days of the simple ridge and weakness placement?

[Wx_Warrior]

Go back and look...i read several threads about how grand the gfs was. It hasn't been good & at best it was hit or miss.

This far out, i don't think any model is going to correctly nail the final output for consecutive runs.

But models are consistent developing, and showing a certain area.

I agree with JB...NGOM to Florida need to keep eyes open for remainder of season.