ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[gatorcane]

Here is the updated ECMWF 500mb at 192 hours with no trough along the eastern seaboard. Granted it is in the long-range. Zonal flow:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 011072912!!

[Ivanhater]

This still looks stretched out...I think the Euro has a good idea on this keeping it weak, at least in the short term.

[gatorcane]

Looking good tonight but still looking like development will be gradual. I would give it more like 40% right now. Look at the dry air ahead. That may be why the GFDL an ECMWF are not be so bullish. Plus it may take some time for a dominant center to develop. I am not sold on it developing and deepening quickly.

Here is a water vapor image. You can see the dryness with the orange shading to the west of the system:

[cycloneye]

Bouy 41041 located around 14.5N-46W is reporting some strong winds sustained and in gusts.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41041

[ConvergenceZone]

I agree gatorcane. I've seen systems like this in the past and it takes awhile for them to detach from the ITCZ, so that would lend the possibility that this might be heading right into the central carib. IF the system isn't any better organized tomorrow at this time, I would think the models will have shifted south.

[fci]

I say TD on Sunday and TS Monday

[ROCK]

rather large envelope takes time....connected to the ITCZ only keeps it in check for now. Long way to go IMO....I say that and tomorrow it will probably classified...

[WxEnthus]

Hey Cycloneye, maybe a poll is in the air? no? TD or not tommorow?

Throwing my (rough & unpolished) two cents in the polling circle -- my guess is a raise to TD Saturday and probably what will look very much like a TS by sometime Sunday if trends keep up, although I have a feeling NHC may hold off on officially bumping up to TS Emily until RECON investigates Monday, that is unless the speed & track hasten the need for time-sensitive warnings of an approaching TS.

[Content is just the opinion of the poster and is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.]

[ROCK]

I'm EURO hugging this time around make some room for me!

ha....you can sit right next to Ivan, WX warrior, and me...

[SouthDadeFish]

Looking good tonight but still looking like development will be gradual. I would give it more like 40% right now. Look at the dry air ahead. That may be why the GFDL an ECMWF are not be so bullish. Plus it may take some time for a dominant center to develop. I am not sold on it developing and deepening quickly.

Here is a water vapor image. You can see the dryness with the orange shading to the west of the system:

While there is a lot of dry air, 91L has a large moisture envelope associated with it. This will help it battle the dry air. That being said I also think development will be gradual, but there is a large potential with this one.

[ROCK]

Here is the updated ECMWF 500mb at 192 hours with no trough along the eastern seaboard. Granted it is in the long-range. Zonal flow:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 011072912!!

have to agree....we are in July and not Sept where trofs dig a lot deeper. Odds are the trof will not create enough of a weakness to pull this one up....IMO....it might not even be there. I wish the NAM went out 192hrs...

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Gatorcane, we have butted heads in years past about if a storm was going to get picked up or not. But I am in your camp on this until it is proven otherwise. I dont see this getting turned out to sea and think the gfs is out in la la land. Look how bad it performed with Don. Also has a ways to go to reach hurricane strength and of course the weaker this stays the further west it gets this go around.

[SeminoleWind]

Latest model tracks - No definite recurve at this time frame. The 12z ECM takes 91L through the caribbean (albeit a weak system). Notice the right-hand bias of the HWRF.

Kind of interesting how some of those models have a little west ward bend at the end their.

[Duddy]

Latest model tracks - No definite recurve at this time frame. The 12z ECM takes 91L through the caribbean (albeit a weak system). Notice the right-hand bias of the HWRF.

Which one is the ECM in that chart? I looked at the chart key and don't see it.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Based on the satellite pic the burn posted at the top of this page, looks as though there are three balls of.convection waiting to separate and possibly develop into more than one system. think this is going to take some time to get really cranking.

[South Texas Storms]

The ECM isn't on that map.

[gatorcane]

Folks, I am following the latest GFS currently running here. Just an FYI. It updates frequently. That is the link to the 500MB heights. Refresh the page to get the new data....right now it is up to 117 hours.


http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[Duddy]

:uarrow: The ECM isn't on that map.

Ah, well that explains why I'm an idiot then.

[WeatherEmperor]

:uarrow: The ECM isn't on that map.

Ah, well that explains why I'm an idiot then.

You are not an idiot. It took me a year to realize the Euro wasn't posted on that map lol

[gatorcane]

00Z GFS shows another deflection away from the SE Coast of the U.S....with a recurve missing the Bahamas just to the east.

But it makes landfall in Puerto Rico on this run.

See the 500MB flow loop up through 192 hours here:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M